© Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

 

WNBA Game Analysis: Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Prediction - August 21, 2024

Introduction

The Phoenix Mercury will visit the Atlanta Dream on August 21, 2024, at the Gateway Center in College Park, GA. The Mercury, with a 15-13 record, are currently in fourth place in the Western Conference and are looking to build on their recent win over the Chicago Sky. Meanwhile, the Dream, with a 9-17 record, are near the bottom of the Eastern Conference but are coming off back-to-back victories, including an impressive win against the Connecticut Sun. This game is crucial for both teams as they look to improve their playoff positioning.

Odds Table

Team	Point Spread	Moneyline Odds	Total (Over/Under)
Phoenix Mercury	-1.5 (-120)	-130	O 163.5 (-115)
Atlanta Dream	+1.5 (EVEN)	+110	U 163.5 (-105)

Team Analysis

Phoenix Mercury

The Phoenix Mercury have had a solid season so far, currently holding a 15-13 record and sitting in fourth place in the Western Conference. They are coming off an 86-68 win over the Chicago Sky on August 18, 2024, at home. The Mercury have been led by guard Kahleah Copper, who is averaging 23.1 points per game. Copper’s scoring ability, combined with her efficiency (45.1% FG, 82.2% FT), has made her one of the most dangerous offensive players in the league.

In the frontcourt, center Brittney Griner has been a key contributor, averaging 6.3 rebounds per game along with 15.4 points per game. Griner’s presence in the paint is crucial for the Mercury, particularly in securing rebounds and providing rim protection. Griner’s ability to control the paint on both ends of the floor will be vital in this matchup against the Dream’s strong frontcourt, led by Tina Charles.

Playmaking duties for the Mercury fall primarily on guard Natalie Cloud, who is averaging 7.0 assists per game. Cloud’s ability to create scoring opportunities for her teammates and control the tempo of the game will be crucial, particularly against a Dream defense that has shown improvement in recent games. However, Cloud’s 3.3 turnovers per game highlight the potential for mistakes, which the Dream’s defense could exploit.

Defensively, the Mercury have been solid, allowing 84.9 points per game. They have been effective at contesting shots and protecting the rim, as evidenced by their 5.0 blocks per game. The Mercury’s ability to disrupt the Dream’s offense and force turnovers will be key to their success in this game. With their playoff positioning on the line, the Mercury will be looking to secure a crucial road victory.

Atlanta Dream

The Atlanta Dream have had a challenging season, currently holding a 9-17 record and sitting near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. However, they are coming off back-to-back wins, including an impressive 82-70 victory over the Connecticut Sun on August 18, 2024, at home. The Dream have been led by guard Rhyne Howard, who is averaging 16.1 points per game. Howard’s ability to score from the perimeter and her playmaking skills (3.3 assists per game) make her a key player for the Dream’s offense.

In the frontcourt, center Tina Charles has been a dominant force, averaging 8.4 rebounds per game along with 18.3 points per game. Charles’s ability to control the paint, particularly on the boards, will be crucial for the Dream, especially against a Mercury team that has strong interior players. Charles’s physical presence and scoring ability make her one of the most important players for the Dream, particularly in close games.

Defensively, the Dream have struggled this season, allowing 80.7 points per game. However, they have shown improvement in recent games, particularly in their ability to force turnovers and contest shots. The Dream’s defense will need to be at its best to contain the Mercury’s high-powered offense, particularly on the perimeter, where Kahleah Copper has been lethal.

The Dream will also need to focus on limiting their turnovers, as they average 13.7 turnovers per game. Controlling the ball and executing their offense efficiently will be key to their chances of securing a victory against the Mercury. With their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, the Dream will be looking to build on their recent success and secure a much-needed win at home.

Recent Performance

Phoenix Mercury

The Phoenix Mercury have been in solid form recently, going 3-2 in their last five games. Their most recent game was an 86-68 victory over the Chicago Sky on August 18, 2024, at home. In that game, the Mercury’s defense was the key to their success, as they held the Sky to just 37.5% shooting from the field. Kahleah Copper led the way with 28 points, while Brittney Griner added 17 points and 10 rebounds. The win was a statement of intent from the Mercury, as they showed they could dominate on both ends of the floor.

Prior to that, the Mercury suffered a 98-89 loss on the road to the Indiana Fever on August 16, 2024. The Mercury’s defense struggled in that game, allowing the Fever to shoot 50.0% from the field. Despite a strong performance from Kahleah Copper, who scored 31 points, the Mercury’s offense was unable to keep pace with the Fever, particularly in the second half.

The Mercury’s other recent victories include an 85-65 win on the road against the Chicago Sky on August 15, 2024. In that game, the Mercury’s defense was once again the key to their success, as they held the Sky to just 39.0% shooting from the field. Kahleah Copper was the standout performer, scoring 26 points and grabbing 6 rebounds. The Mercury’s ability to dominate on both ends of the floor was evident in that game, as they secured a comfortable victory.

On July 16, 2024, the Mercury secured a 96-87 victory on the road against the Washington Mystics. In that game, the Mercury’s offense was firing on all cylinders, as they shot 48.6% from the field and 41.9% from three-point range. Kahleah Copper led the way with 32 points, while Brittney Griner added 20 points and 9 rebounds. The win was a much-needed boost for the Mercury, who had been struggling with consistency.

Rounding out their last five games, the Mercury suffered a 96-69 loss on the road to the Connecticut Sun on July 14, 2024. The Mercury were unable to contain the Sun’s balanced attack, as they allowed them to shoot 52.1% from the field. Despite a strong performance from Kahleah Copper, who scored 25 points, the Mercury’s defense was unable to keep pace with the Sun, particularly in the second half.

Atlanta Dream

The Atlanta Dream have been in better form recently, winning their last two games after a rough stretch where they went 1-8 in their previous nine. Their most recent game was an 82-70 victory over the Connecticut Sun on August 18, 2024, at home. In that game, the Dream’s defense was the key to their success, as they held the Sun to just 38.0% shooting from the field. Rhyne Howard led the way with 22 points and 5 rebounds, while Tina Charles added 18 points and 11 rebounds. The win was a confidence booster for the Dream, as they showed they could compete with one of the top teams in the league.

On August 16, 2024, the Dream secured a narrow 83-81 victory at home against the Seattle Storm. The game was a back-and-forth affair, with both teams exchanging leads throughout the contest. The Dream’s defense was the key to their success, as they held the Storm to just 42.5% shooting from the field. Rhyne Howard was the standout performer, scoring 28 points and grabbing 7 rebounds. The win was a much-needed boost for the Dream, who had been struggling with consistency.

The Dream’s other recent losses include an 86-79 defeat on the road to the Minnesota Lynx on July 17, 2024. In that game, the Dream’s defense was unable to contain the Lynx’s balanced attack, as they allowed them to shoot 46.3% from the field. Despite a strong performance from Rhyne Howard, who scored 24 points, the Dream’s offense was unable to keep pace with the Lynx, particularly in the second half.

On July 14, 2024, the Dream suffered an 81-70 loss on the road to the Seattle Storm. The Dream’s offense struggled in that game, shooting just 37.9% from the field and 26.7% from three-point range. Despite a strong performance from Tina Charles, who scored 20 points and grabbed 12 rebounds, the Dream’s offense was unable to keep pace with the Storm.

Rounding out their last five games, the Dream fell 84-70 at home to the Las Vegas Aces on July 12, 2024. The game was a one-sided affair, as the Dream struggled to contain the Aces’ high-powered offense, allowing them to shoot 50.0% from the field. The Dream’s defense will need to improve if they hope to keep the game close against the Mercury.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This will be the second meeting of the season between the Phoenix Mercury and Atlanta Dream. In their first meeting on May 18, 2024, the Mercury emerged victorious with an 88-85 win on the road. The game was a closely contested affair, with both teams exchanging leads throughout the contest. The Mercury’s balanced attack and strong defense were the keys to their victory, as they held the Dream to just 40.5% shooting from the field. Kahleah Copper led the way for the Mercury with 27 points, while Brittney Griner added 15 points and 8 rebounds. The Dream will be looking to avenge that loss and secure a much-needed victory at home.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

The Phoenix Mercury have been solid against the spread (ATS) this season, posting a 14-13-1 record. The Mercury have been particularly strong ATS on the road, where they have covered the spread in 8 of their 15 games. This trend is encouraging for bettors, especially given the Mercury’s recent form and their previous victory over the Dream.

The Atlanta Dream, on the other hand, have struggled ATS this season, posting a 9-17 record. The Dream have been particularly poor ATS at home, where they have covered the spread in just 4 of their 13 games. This trend is concerning for bettors, especially given the Dream’s recent form and the strength of the Mercury.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Phoenix Mercury: The Mercury have hit the over in 15 of their 28 games this season, reflecting their ability to score in bunches and occasional lapses in their defense. The Mercury’s offensive firepower makes them a strong candidate for high-scoring games, particularly against teams that struggle defensively.
• Atlanta Dream: The Dream have seen the total go under in 15 of their 26 games this season, indicating that their games often feature lower-than-expected scoring. The Dream’s offensive struggles and their ability to slow down the pace of the game have been key factors in this trend.
• Head-to-Head: The over has hit in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams, suggesting that games between the Mercury and Dream tend to be high-scoring affairs. This trend is likely to continue, given the Mercury’s strong offense and the Dream’s defensive struggles.

Prediction