WNBA Expert Picks: Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm – First Round Game 1 WNBA Playoff Preview – Betting Analysis

Introduction

The Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm are set to square off in a thrilling first-round playoff matchup on September 22, 2024. The Aces come into this contest with a strong regular season record of 27-13, earning the second seed in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Storm finished the regular season at 25-15, placing third in the conference. Both teams feature star power and are primed for a competitive series. This Game 1 matchup will be pivotal, setting the tone for the rest of the series. Bettors and fans alike will be keeping a close eye on this game, which features an exciting combination of defensive prowess and offensive firepower.

Odds Table

Team	Point Spread	Moneyline	Total (Over/Under)
Las Vegas Aces	-8.5	-450	o162.5
Seattle Storm	+8.5	+340	u162.5

The Aces are favored by 8.5 points in Game 1, with the total set at 162.5. These odds reflect the Aces' home-court advantage and recent form, while also taking into account the injuries that could impact both teams.

Team Analysis

Las Vegas Aces

The Las Vegas Aces had an impressive regular season, finishing second in the Western Conference with a 27-13 record. Led by superstar A’ja Wilson, who averaged 27.0 points and 11.9 rebounds per game, the Aces boast one of the most potent offenses in the league. Wilson’s dominance in the paint has been a key factor in Las Vegas' success, and her ability to control the glass and score efficiently makes her the focal point of the Aces' attack.

Supporting Wilson is a talented backcourt featuring Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray. Young has been a consistent playmaker, averaging 5.3 assists per game while maintaining a low turnover rate. Plum adds scoring punch from beyond the arc and is critical to spreading the floor for Wilson's post-ups. Gray’s leadership and court vision further enhance the Aces’ balanced offense.

Defensively, Las Vegas is one of the stingiest teams in the WNBA, allowing just 81.1 points per game. They also force opponents into tough shots, thanks to Wilson’s rim protection and the team’s collective effort on the perimeter. Heading into this series, Las Vegas will look to use their physicality and experience to stifle Seattle's offense.

Seattle Storm

The Seattle Storm enter the playoffs as the third seed in the Western Conference with a 25-15 record. They are led by guard Jewell Loyd, who is one of the top scorers in the league, averaging 19.7 points per game. Loyd’s ability to score from all three levels will be critical for the Storm’s chances in this series, especially with Ezi Magbegor sidelined due to injury.

Without Magbegor, who averaged 8.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game, the Storm will need to find ways to contain A’ja Wilson in the paint. This puts additional pressure on Seattle’s forwards to step up defensively and secure rebounds. Sami Whitcomb and Skylar Diggins-Smith will also play crucial roles in stretching the Aces' defense with their perimeter shooting and playmaking abilities.

Defensively, Seattle allows 78.8 points per game, one of the better marks in the league. They rely on their ability to create turnovers and push the pace in transition. However, with the absence of key players like Magbegor and Loyd potentially playing limited minutes, Seattle may struggle to keep up with Las Vegas' offensive firepower.

Recent Performance

Las Vegas Aces

The Aces closed the regular season on a high note, winning five of their last six games. Their most recent victories include an 85-72 win over Seattle on September 17 and an 84-71 triumph against Connecticut on September 15. These wins highlighted their balanced offense and defensive tenacity, with A’ja Wilson putting up dominant performances in both games.

Las Vegas’ ability to score efficiently in the half-court sets them apart from many teams in the league. They have consistently found ways to exploit mismatches, and their team chemistry has been evident in their ball movement and spacing. Heading into the playoffs, the Aces are peaking at the right time.

Seattle Storm

The Storm have also finished the regular season strong, winning four of their last five games. However, they suffered a crucial 85-72 loss to the Aces on September 17, which gave a glimpse into how the two teams match up. Despite Jewell Loyd’s 19 points in that contest, the Storm struggled to slow down Wilson and the Aces’ interior offense.

Seattle’s recent wins include a 90-87 victory over Los Angeles and a 90-66 rout of Phoenix. These wins showed their resilience and ability to score in transition, but they will need to find answers for Las Vegas’ size and depth in the playoffs.

Head-to-Head Comparison

During the 2024 regular season, the Aces and Storm faced each other four times, with Las Vegas winning three of those matchups. The most recent encounter on September 17 saw the Aces secure an 85-72 win in Seattle. In that game, A’ja Wilson led the way with 26 points and 12 rebounds, dominating the interior against a shorthanded Storm lineup.

The Storm’s lone victory in the season series came on June 7, when they edged out the Aces 78-65. However, since then, Las Vegas has adjusted their defensive schemes and limited Seattle’s scoring opportunities in the paint.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

Las Vegas Aces: The Aces have been solid against the spread this season, posting a 20-17 record ATS. They have performed well as favorites, covering the spread in four of their last five games. At home, they are particularly strong, covering the spread in over 60% of their games at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

Seattle Storm: The Storm have been more inconsistent ATS, going 18-21 ATS for the season. They’ve struggled as underdogs, particularly on the road, where they have a sub-.500 ATS record. With key injuries impacting their lineup, it will be challenging for Seattle to cover the spread against the high-powered Aces.

Betting Stats and Trends

Over/Under Trends: Both teams have shown tendencies to hit the over, especially in high-scoring matchups. The total for Game 1 is set at 162.5, and with the Aces’ potent offense and Seattle’s transition game, this number is achievable. The over has hit in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.

Home/Away Performance: The Aces are a dominant home team, finishing the regular season 13-7 at Michelob ULTRA Arena. Meanwhile, the Storm are a respectable road team, going 11-9 away from home. However, Seattle’s recent struggles against top-tier competition on the road raise concerns for their chances in this playoff series.

Prediction