UFC Predictions: Machado Garry vs Prates 4/26

- Lm Tipster
- Apr 26, 2025, 7:15:27 AM
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates - Welterweight Main Event Tonight in Kansas City
Tonight, April 26, 2025, the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri, hosts a thrilling welterweight main event at UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates. The highly-touted Irish star Ian Machado Garry takes on the explosive Brazilian knockout artist Carlos Prates in a pivotal matchup for the 170-pound division.
Fighter Backgrounds
Ian Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry (15-1-0), representing Chute Boxe - Diego Lima, is a slick and confident welterweight who has quickly risen through the UFC ranks. Known for his technical striking and ability to control distance, Garry has secured seven of his fifteen wins via (T)KO. He is looking to rebound from his first professional loss and re-establish himself as a top contender in the division.
Carlos Prates
Carlos "The Nightmare" Prates (21-6-0), fighting out of Fighting Nerds in Brazil, is a devastating knockout artist who has made a significant impact since joining the UFC. With sixteen of his twenty-one wins coming via (T)KO, Prates possesses fight-ending power in his hands and feet. He is riding a tremendous wave of momentum and aims to land the biggest win of his career in tonight's main event.
Fighting Styles and Strengths
Ian Machado Garry
- Technical Striker: Garry is a polished striker with excellent footwork and the ability to land clean shots from range.
- Effective Distance Control: He utilizes his reach and movement to keep opponents at bay and dictate where the fight takes place.
- Growing Experience: Having faced increasingly tough competition, Garry is gaining valuable experience at the highest level.
- Solid Striking Accuracy: Possesses a significant strike accuracy of 59.45% (SIG STR ACC).
Carlos Prates
- Elite Knockout Power: Prates boasts an incredible 16 (T)KO victories, showcasing his fight-ending power.
- Aggressive Style: He comes forward with bad intentions, always looking for the knockout.
- Dangerous Finisher: With a high percentage of wins coming via strikes, Prates is a constant threat to finish the fight.
- Higher Striking Accuracy: Lands 57.63% of his significant strikes (SIG STR ACC).
Recent Performances
Ian Machado Garry
Machado Garry suffered his first professional loss in his most recent fight, a unanimous decision against Shavkat Rakhmonov in December 2024 in a high-profile matchup. Prior to that, he secured a unanimous decision win over Michael Page in June 2024 and a split decision victory against Geoff Neal in February 2024.
Carlos Prates
Prates is currently on a dominant winning streak, with his most recent victory being a first-round TKO over Neil Magny in November 2024, a performance that immediately propelled him into this main event slot. Before that, he secured TKO victories over Li Jingliang in August 2024, Charles Radtke in June 2024, and Trevin Giles in February 2024, all within the UFC.
Odds and Betting Information
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | -130 |
| Carlos Prates | +110 |
Ian Machado Garry enters tonight's main event as the slight favorite at -130, while the dangerous Carlos Prates is the underdog with odds of +110.
Keys to Victory
Ian Machado Garry
- Utilize Distance Control: Garry needs to effectively use his reach and footwork to keep the powerful Prates at bay and land strikes from a safe distance.
- Stay Disciplined: Avoiding getting drawn into a brawl and sticking to his technical striking game plan will be crucial.
- Manage the Early Rounds: Prates is a fast starter, so Garry needs to be sharp and avoid taking unnecessary damage early.
Carlos Prates
- Close the Distance and Land Power Shots: Prates' clearest path to victory is to get inside Garry's reach and land his fight-ending power strikes.
- Cut Off the Cage: Prates needs to effectively cut off the octagon and not allow Garry space to move and utilize his range.
- Capitalize on Any Openings: If Garry makes a mistake or is momentarily vulnerable, Prates needs to be ready to land a fight-ending blow.
Prediction
Tonight's main event is a fascinating clash between Ian Machado Garry's technical striking and Carlos Prates' raw knockout power. While Prates has been on a spectacular finishing run, facing a fighter with Garry's movement and defensive skills is a significant step up. Expect Garry to utilize his reach and footwork to frustrate Prates and land clean strikes throughout the fight. While Prates always has a puncher's chance, Garry's ability to control distance should lead him to a victory.
Prediction: Ian Machado Garry to win (-130).

