Kingpin analysis
UFC Predictions: Garbrandt vs Barcelos, June 14, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley - Bantamweight Battle: Cody "No Love" Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos
As UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley prepares to electrify the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, on June 14, 2025, a captivating bantamweight clash is set for the main card. Former UFC Bantamweight Champion Cody "No Love" Garbrandt will face the always-tough Raoni Barcelos in a fight that promises high-level striking and potential fireworks.
Fighter Backgrounds
Cody Garbrandt
Cody "No Love" Garbrandt (14-6-0), representing Team Alpha Male in the USA, is a former UFC Bantamweight Champion known for his explosive striking, fast hands, and knockout power. With 11 TKO/KO wins, Garbrandt has historically been one of the most dangerous finishers in the division, though he's also faced a challenging period with multiple knockout losses.
Raoni Barcelos
Raoni Barcelos (19-5-0), fighting out of Top Brother MMA in Brazil, is a highly skilled and well-rounded bantamweight. With 8 TKO/KO wins and 3 submissions, Barcelos combines crisp striking with powerful wrestling and a strong grappling game. He's known for putting on exciting fights and having a high fight IQ.
Fighting Styles and Strengths
Cody Garbrandt
- Explosive Striking: Garbrandt has incredibly fast hands and generates significant power, particularly in short exchanges.
- Excellent Head Movement: At his best, he utilizes slick head movement to avoid strikes and set up counters.
- Former Champion Mentality: He has proven he can reach the pinnacle of the sport.
Raoni Barcelos
- Well-Rounded Game: Barcelos is proficient in striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu, making him dangerous everywhere.
- High Output: He often maintains a good pace and can land significant strikes and control time.
- Durability and Experience: Barcelos has been in tough fights and has shown a solid chin and ability to weather storms.
Recent Performances
Cody Garbrandt
Cody Garbrandt is coming off a submission loss to Deiveson Figueiredo in April 2024 at UFC 300, marking a challenging return to flyweight. Before that, he secured a TKO win over Brian Kelleher in December 2023 and a unanimous decision win over Trevin Jones in March 2023, showing signs of a potential career resurgence after a difficult stretch.
Raoni Barcelos
Raoni Barcelos is on a two-fight winning streak. He recently secured a unanimous decision victory over Payton Talbott in January 2025 at UFC 311. Prior to that, he submitted Cristian Quiñonez in February 2024. These wins demonstrate his ability to adapt and finish fights, rebounding from previous losses.
Odds and Betting Information
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | +155 |
| Raoni Barcelos | -185 |
Raoni Barcelos is the favorite in this bantamweight contest at -185, while Cody Garbrandt is the underdog at +155. The recommended pick for this fight is Raoni Barcelos to win at -200.
Keys to Victory
Cody Garbrandt
- Land Early and Hard: Garbrandt's best chance is to connect with his explosive power in the early exchanges.
- Maintain Discipline: Avoid getting drawn into prolonged brawls and stick to technical striking.
- Utilize Footwork: Move well and create angles to land his shots while minimizing Barcelos's counter opportunities.
Raoni Barcelos
- Mix It Up: Barcelos should blend his striking with takedown threats to keep Garbrandt guessing.
- Pressure and Grapple: Lean on his wrestling and ground game to wear down Garbrandt's explosiveness and potentially expose his chin.
- Weather the Early Storm: Survive Garbrandt's initial bursts and aim to take over in the later rounds.
Prediction
This is a compelling matchup, but one where Raoni Barcelos's well-roundedness and Garbrandt's recent struggles with durability paint a clear picture. While Cody Garbrandt possesses fight-ending power, his chin has been compromised multiple times, and he tends to get drawn into brawls where he's vulnerable. Barcelos, on the other hand, is durable, has a good chin, and possesses a versatile skill set that allows him to win fights in multiple ways.
Barcelos can stand and strike with Garbrandt, but his best path to victory will likely involve mixing in takedowns to drain Garbrandt's energy and put him in uncomfortable positions. Even if Garbrandt lands, Barcelos has shown the ability to recover and continue fighting. Barcelos's recent form, including a submission win and a decision over a tough prospect, suggests he's currently operating at a higher, more consistent level.
Prediction: Raoni Barcelos to win (-200). At -200, Raoni Barcelos is a solid pick. He has the tools to exploit Garbrandt's weaknesses, particularly his compromised chin and tendency to abandon a disciplined game plan. Barcelos's ability to seamlessly blend striking and grappling, coupled with his durability and consistency, gives him a significant advantage over a still dangerous but more vulnerable Cody Garbrandt. Expect Barcelos to grind out a decision or potentially find a late TKO as Garbrandt fades.
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