UFC Predictions: Gabe Green vs Matheus Camilo, May 17, 2025
- Lm Tipster
- May 14, 2025, 6:48:56 AM
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales - Gabe "Gifted" Green Faces Matheus Camilo in Lightweight Main Card Opener
Opening the main card of UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales next Saturday, May 17, 2025, live from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, is a lightweight clash between America's Gabe "Gifted" Green and Brazil's rising prospect Matheus Camilo. Both fighters are looking for a statement win to kick off the main portion of the event.
Fighter Backgrounds
Gabe Green
Gabe "Gifted" Green (11-5-0), representing Kings MMA in the USA, is a lightweight known for his aggressive style and finishing abilities. Green has secured four wins via (T)KO and six by submission, showcasing a well-rounded skillset. He is returning to the octagon after a layoff and will be eager to make an impression.
Matheus Camilo
Matheus Camilo (9-2-0), hailing from Brazil, is a lightweight prospect with a solid professional record. Camilo has secured four wins via (T)KO and two by submission, demonstrating finishing capabilities on the feet and the ground. At 24 years old, he is still early in his career and looks to continue his climb in the division.
Fighting Styles and Strengths
Gabe Green
- Aggressive Striking: Green often comes forward and looks to engage in striking exchanges.
- Submission Grappler: Six submission wins highlight his dangerous ground game.
- Switch Stance: Fights from a switch stance, adding unpredictability.
Matheus Camilo
- Finishing Ability: Camilo has secured wins via both knockout and submission.
- Well-Rounded Prospect: Possesses skills in both striking and grappling.
- Recent Activity: Has been more active recently compared to Green.
Recent Performances
Gabe Green
Gabe Green is returning to action after a TKO loss to Bryan Battle in May 2023, marking over a year since his last fight. Prior to that, he suffered a unanimous decision loss to Ian Machado Garry in July 2022 but secured a second-round TKO win over Yohan Lainesse in April 2022.
Matheus Camilo
Matheus Camilo is currently on a four-fight winning streak, with his most recent victories coming via unanimous decision over Dorobshokh Nabotov in December 2024 and Jhonasky Sojo in October 2024 on the regional scene. His last loss was via submission in February 2022.
Odds and Betting Information
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Gabe Green | +145 |
| Matheus Camilo | -175 |
Matheus Camilo is the betting favorite in this lightweight main card opener with odds of -175, while Gabe Green is the underdog at +145.
Keys to Victory
Gabe Green
- Shake Off Ring Rust: Green needs to quickly find his rhythm after a significant layoff.
- Utilize Submission Skills: If the fight goes to the ground, Green's submission game could be a major factor.
- Avoid Camilo's Finishing Threats: Being cautious of Camilo's power and finishing ability both standing and on the ground.
Matheus Camilo
- Utilize Recent Momentum: Camilo should look to capitalize on his recent activity and winning streak.
- Implement Well-Rounded Attack: Blending striking and grappling can keep Green off balance.
- Capitalize on Layoff: Pushing a high pace early could potentially exploit any ring rust from Green.
Prediction
This lightweight main card opener features the returning Gabe Green against the favored prospect Matheus Camilo. While Green has finishing ability, his significant layoff and Camilo's recent activity and winning streak are notable factors. The betting odds favor Camilo, suggesting he is the sharper fighter entering this bout. Expect Camilo to utilize his momentum and well-rounded skills.
Prediction: Matheus Camilo to win (-175). As the betting favorite, Matheus Camilo is the recommended pick. His recent activity and winning streak, combined with a well-rounded skillset, give him the edge against a returning Gabe Green who has been out of action for over a year. Expect Camilo to outpoint Green over three rounds to secure the victory.
