UFC 318 Predictions: Brendan Allen vs Marvin Vettori, July 19, 2025
- Lm Tipster
- Jul 17, 2025, 4:54:43 AM
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 - Prelim Pick: Brendan "All In" Allen vs. Marvin "The Italian Dream" Vettori
A highly anticipated middleweight clash is set for the prelims of UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3, taking place on July 19, 2025, at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA. This bout will feature top contenders Marvin "The Italian Dream" Vettori and Brendan "All In" Allen.
Fighter Backgrounds
Marvin Vettori
Marvin "The Italian Dream" Vettori (19-8-1) is a 31-year-old middleweight fighting out of American Top Team. Known for his relentless pressure, granite chin, and strong grappling, Vettori has consistently been a top-ranked middleweight, having fought former champion Israel Adesanya twice. However, he is currently on a two-fight losing streak, dropping unanimous decisions to Roman Dolidze (March 2025) and Jared Cannonier (June 2023).
Brendan Allen
Brendan "All In" Allen (24-7-0) is a 29-year-old American middleweight representing Kill Cliff FC. Allen is a highly skilled grappler with 14 submission victories on his record, but also possesses dangerous striking. He was on a impressive seven-fight winning streak before suffering back-to-back unanimous decision losses to Anthony Hernandez (February 2025) and Nassourdine Imavov (September 2024).
Fighting Styles and Strengths
Marvin Vettori
- Relentless Pressure: Vettori constantly moves forward, looking to overwhelm opponents with volume and physicality.
- Iron Chin: He has never been stopped by strikes in his professional career, showcasing incredible durability.
- Strong Grappling: Possesses solid wrestling and jiu-jitsu, capable of controlling opponents on the ground.
- High Cardio: Known for his ability to maintain a high pace for five rounds.
Brendan Allen
- Elite Grappling and Submissions: Allen is one of the most dangerous submission artists in the middleweight division, with a high finish rate on the ground, particularly with rear-naked chokes.
- Improved Striking: His striking has evolved, and he is comfortable exchanging on the feet.
- Well-Rounded: Capable of mixing striking and grappling effectively to find openings.
- High Fight IQ: Tends to adapt well during fights and capitalize on his opponent's weaknesses.
Recent Performances
Marvin Vettori
Vettori has lost three of his last four bouts, all by unanimous decision. His most recent loss was a rematch against Roman Dolidze, where he struggled to keep pace in the later rounds. Prior to that, he was involved in a grueling five-round war with Jared Cannonier. His last win was against Roman Dolidze in their first encounter in March 2023.
Brendan Allen
Allen is looking to rebound from two consecutive decision losses against tough opponents in Anthony Hernandez and Nassourdine Imavov. These losses snapped a seven-fight winning streak that saw him submit formidable grapplers like Paul Craig, Bruno Silva, and Andre Muniz. His last win was a split decision over Chris Curtis in April 2024.
Odds and Betting Information
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | +175 |
| Brendan Allen | -210 |
Brendan Allen enters as the favorite at -210, while Marvin Vettori is the underdog at +175.
Keys to Victory
Marvin Vettori
- Overwhelm with Volume: Push a relentless pace and try to tire out Allen, especially if Allen is forced to defend takedowns or submission attempts.
- Sticking and Moving: Use his boxing to land shots and move out of Allen's grappling range.
- Takedown Defense: Vettori will need to be diligent in defending Allen's takedowns and avoid getting drawn into a grappling chess match.
- Body Shots: Consistent body work could slow Allen down over three rounds.
Brendan Allen
- Secure Takedowns: Allen's clearest path to victory is getting Vettori to the mat and hunting for submissions or ground and pound.
- Control the Clinch: If he can get Vettori in the clinch, he can wear him down and look for trips or throws.
- Patience and Setup: Don't rush into submissions; instead, set them up carefully against Vettori's tough defense.
- Avoid Trading Power Shots: While Vettori has been durable, Allen should prioritize his grappling advantage.
Prediction
This is a compelling matchup between two of the middleweight division's most durable and skilled fighters. Marvin Vettori is known for his incredible toughness and unwavering pressure, having gone the distance with some of the best in the world. However, his striking output has sometimes lagged, and he has absorbed a lot of damage over his career. Brendan Allen is a submission ace with a well-rounded game, and he's hungry to get back into the win column after two recent decision losses.
The key factor in this fight will likely be the grappling exchanges. While Vettori is strong and defensively sound, Allen's jiu-jitsu is arguably the best in the division. If Allen can secure takedowns, even just one or two per round, he will put Vettori in uncomfortable positions and threaten with submissions. Vettori's historical durability is a concern for a finish, but Allen has proven he can submit tough opponents.
Allen will also have the home crowd advantage in New Orleans, which could provide an extra boost. While Vettori's relentless pressure can be difficult to deal with, Allen's ability to capitalize on transitions and find submissions from various positions gives him a clear edge, especially if Vettori overcommits on his strikes or clinches. Given Vettori's recent losing skid and the fact that Allen's losses were against highly-regarded contenders, Allen is well-positioned to bounce back with a strong performance.
Prediction: Brendan Allen via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in Round 3.
Best Bet: Brendan Allen to win (-210). Allen's elite grappling and submission skills, combined with Vettori's recent struggles and the stylistic advantage on the ground, make Allen a solid favorite. He has the tools to either submit Vettori or control him for a decision victory.
Betting on MMA carries inherent risks. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not guarantee outcomes. Please bet responsibly. Odds are subject to change.
