UFC 317 Predictions: Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez, June 28, 2025
- Kingpin
- Jun 25, 2025, 4:44:47 AM
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira - Women's Flyweight Bout: Viviane "Vivi" Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez
The highly anticipated UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira event on June 28, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV, will feature an intriguing women's flyweight bout on the prelims. Viviane "Vivi" Araujo will take on Tracy Cortez in a clash that could have significant implications for the rankings.
Fighter Backgrounds
Viviane Araujo
Viviane "Vivi" Araujo (13-6-0), representing Cerrado MMA in Brazil, is a well-rounded fighter with a strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background (black belt) and powerful striking. She's faced a high level of competition in the flyweight division, often going the distance with top contenders. She has 3 TKO/KO wins and 4 submissions.
Tracy Cortez
Tracy Cortez (11-2-0), fighting out of Fight Ready in the USA, is known for her disciplined and methodical approach, combining solid boxing with strong wrestling and grappling control. She has an impressive record, with 1 TKO/KO win and 1 submission, and has historically excelled at winning decisions by controlling the pace and securing takedowns.
Fighting Styles and Strengths
Viviane Araujo
- Potent Striking: Araujo possesses strong, aggressive striking, particularly with her hands, and can throw with power.
- Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu: As a BJJ black belt, she is a legitimate threat on the ground with submissions.
- Durability: She has shown resilience, often going the full three or five rounds against tough opponents.
Tracy Cortez
- Technical Boxing: Cortez has crisp, fundamental boxing skills, often out-landing opponents.
- Strong Wrestling and Grappling Control: She excels at securing takedowns and maintaining top control, grinding out rounds.
- Pace Control: Cortez is adept at dictating the tempo of the fight and neutralizing her opponents' strengths.
Recent Performances
Viviane Araujo
Viviane Araujo most recently secured a unanimous decision victory over Karine Silva in November 2024 at UFC 309. Prior to that, she had a unanimous decision loss to Natalia Silva in February 2024 and a unanimous decision win over Jennifer Maia in October 2023. She has consistently faced top-ranked fighters, even in her losses.
Tracy Cortez
Tracy Cortez is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Rose Namajunas in July 2024 at UFC Fight Night. This was her first loss since her professional debut in 2017, snapping an impressive 11-fight winning streak. Before that, she secured a unanimous decision win over Jasmine Jasudavicius in September 2023 and Melissa Gatto in May 2022. She's known for taking fights to the judges' scorecards.
Odds and Betting Information
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Viviane Araujo | +200 |
| Tracy Cortez | -260 |
Tracy Cortez is a significant favorite in this women's flyweight bout at -260, reflecting her consistent winning record and dominant grappling approach. Viviane Araujo is the underdog at +200. The recommended pick for this fight is Tracy Cortez to win at -260.
Keys to Victory
Viviane Araujo
- Keep it Standing: Araujo needs to utilize her striking advantage and keep the fight at distance, avoiding Cortez's takedowns.
- Takedown Defense: Her 80% takedown defense will be severely tested, and defending the clinch and initial shots will be crucial.
- Threaten Submissions: If taken down, she needs to actively work for submissions to deter Cortez's ground control.
Tracy Cortez
- Implement Wrestling Early: Cortez's clearest path to victory is through takedowns and controlling Araujo on the mat.
- Maintain Positional Dominance: Once on the ground, she needs to secure and maintain dominant positions, stifling Araujo's BJJ.
- Volume Striking in Exchanges: On the feet, she should focus on high-volume striking to set up her entries for grappling.
Prediction
This is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup, though both women are reasonably well-rounded. Viviane Araujo possesses dangerous striking and solid BJJ, but her recent track record against elite grapplers/wrestlers has seen her lose decisions, often due to being out-controlled. Tracy Cortez, on the other hand, is known for her relentless wrestling and ability to grind out unanimous decision victories. Her single UFC loss to Rose Namajunas, while decisive, was against a former champion who also utilized grappling effectively.
Cortez's consistent pressure, strong takedowns, and top control are a difficult puzzle to solve for many flyweights. While Araujo has good takedown defense, Cortez's persistence and transitions make her very effective at getting the fight where she wants it. If Cortez can secure takedowns, she will likely lean on her control and ground strikes to rack up points. Araujo's best chance is a knockout on the feet, but Cortez's defensive boxing and head movement are usually solid enough to avoid major damage.
Given Cortez's history of winning decisions by controlling the grappling exchanges and Araujo's tendency to struggle against stronger wrestlers, Cortez is the more reliable pick. She is younger and still seems to be improving, whereas Araujo has been facing a series of tough losses in recent years. Expect Cortez to methodically pursue takedowns and control the pace of the fight.
Prediction: Tracy Cortez via Unanimous Decision.
Best Bet: Tracy Cortez to win (-260). While the odds are somewhat steep, Tracy Cortez's fighting style is well-suited to defeat Viviane Araujo. Cortez's strong wrestling and control-based approach are historically difficult for Araujo, who tends to lose decisions when taken down and controlled. Cortez will prioritize getting the fight to the mat, and once there, she's excellent at maintaining position and neutralizing her opponent's offensive grappling. This fight is highly likely to go to a decision, and Cortez has a proven track record of winning rounds through effective wrestling and top control. She offers a relatively safe pick despite the higher juice.
Betting on MMA carries inherent risks. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not guarantee outcomes. Please bet responsibly. Odds are subject to change.
