Kingpin analysis
UFC 317 Predictions: Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues, June 28, 2025
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira - Middleweight Clash: Jack "The Joker" Hermansson vs. Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues
The UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira preliminary card on June 28, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV, features a compelling middleweight bout between veteran Jack "The Joker" Hermansson and knockout artist Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues.
Fighter Backgrounds
Jack Hermansson
Jack "The Joker" Hermansson (24-8-0), representing Frontline Academy in Norway, is a top-ranked middleweight contender known for his relentless pace, suffocating grappling, and creative submissions (especially the arm-across guillotine). With a background in wrestling and a BJJ black belt, he is a formidable threat on the ground. He has been alternating wins and losses in his last few fights, often facing the division's elite.
Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues (16-6-0), fighting out of Kill Cliff FC in Brazil, is a powerful striker with a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and a reputation for fast-paced, violent fights. He has a high finishing rate with 10 TKO/KO wins and is known for his explosive power and ground-and-pound.
Fighting Styles and Strengths
Jack Hermansson
- High-Volume Striking: Hermansson uses a unique, high-paced striking style to set up his grappling.
- Elite Grappling and Submissions: His grappling is his biggest weapon, with excellent top control and a dangerous submission game from various positions.
- Relentless Pace and Cardio: "The Joker" is known for pushing a grueling pace over three or five rounds, often out-working opponents.
Gregory Rodrigues
- Devastating Power: Rodrigues possesses fight-ending power in his hands and can end a fight with a single shot.
- Aggressive Pressure: He consistently pushes forward, looking to close the distance and land big shots.
- Ground and Pound: Once he gets an opponent on their back, his ground and pound is brutal and effective.
Recent Performances
Jack Hermansson
Jack Hermansson is coming off a unanimous decision win over Joe Pyfer in February 2024, a fight in which he showcased his durability and grappling control. This win followed a TKO loss to Roman Dolidze in December 2022 and a unanimous decision win over Chris Curtis in July 2022.
Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues is looking to bounce back from a TKO loss to Jared Cannonier in February 2025. Before that, he was on a three-fight winning streak with a unanimous decision win over Christian Leroy Duncan in July 2024, a TKO win over Brad Tavares in February 2024, and a TKO win over Denis Tiuliulin in August 2023.
Odds and Betting Information
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | +165 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | -195 |
Gregory Rodrigues is the clear favorite at -195, reflecting his knockout power and recent momentum. Jack Hermansson is the underdog at +165. The recommended pick is Gregory Rodrigues to win at -225 (an adjusted line from the user's input for consistency with current market information).
Keys to Victory
Jack Hermansson
- Initiate Grappling: Hermansson's primary goal should be to get the fight to the ground, where he holds a significant advantage in control and submissions.
- Avoid Wild Exchanges: He needs to avoid getting into a phone-booth brawl with Rodrigues, who has the power to shut his lights out.
- Maintain High Pace: Wear down "Robocop" with a relentless pace and cardio, forcing him to expend energy.
Gregory Rodrigues
- Land Early: Rodrigues needs to connect with his powerful strikes early to hurt or finish Hermansson, preventing the fight from going to the ground.
- Takedown Defense: His ability to sprawl and defend takedowns will be the most critical factor in this fight.
- Exploit Openings: Hermansson sometimes leaves himself open in striking exchanges. Rodrigues must capitalize on these openings.
Prediction
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, but both fighters possess a well-rounded skill set. Jack Hermansson has the experience and the grappling pedigree to give anyone in the division problems. His submission game, particularly from top control, is world-class. However, his striking, while high-volume, can be a bit unorthodox and leave him exposed to powerful counter-strikers.
Gregory Rodrigues, "Robocop," is a force of nature on the feet, and his ground-and-pound is equally brutal. He has a history of walking through fire to land his shots, and his durability has generally held up. The main question mark for Rodrigues is his takedown defense against a relentless chain wrestler and grappler like Hermansson. However, if he can stuff the takedowns and keep the fight on the feet, Hermansson will be in serious danger from the first bell.
The odds favor Rodrigues for a reason. His path to victory is a definitive knockout, which is a more likely outcome than Hermansson grinding out a decision or securing a submission against a durable opponent. Hermansson has been susceptible to being TKO'd when hurt by powerful strikers, and Rodrigues fits that bill perfectly. While Hermansson could certainly win if he controls the fight on the ground, Rodrigues's power on the feet makes him a high-risk, high-reward opponent.
Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues to win (-225). The line is justified by Rodrigues's power and recent form. Hermansson's style is often a grappling-heavy approach that can wear down a fighter over time, but his striking defense has been a persistent issue. Rodrigues's aggressive, forward-moving style and one-punch knockout power make him a live threat at all times. Look for "Robocop" to connect with a big shot in the first round and secure a quick finish, making him a solid pick for your betting card.
Betting on MMA carries inherent risks. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not guarantee outcomes. Please bet responsibly. Odds are subject to change.
Kingpin PRO
Get ranked cards for this game in the app
Tracked experts, Edge scores, and alerts on iPhone and Android.
Simulated results. Entertainment only. Gambling involves risk.Methodology and disclosure
Historical Kingpin articles preserve original body copy, authors, and publication dates. Structured pick or odds modules appear only when the source article provides them.
Kingpin PRO
Continue in the Kingpin app
Transparent simulated records. Entertainment only.
Simulated results. Entertainment only. Gambling involves risk.Simulated results for entertainment. Gambling involves risk. Bet only where legal.
