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UFC 315 Predictions: Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan, May 10, 2025

UFC 315 Predictions: Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan, May 10, 2025

 

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena - Brad Katona Meets Bekzat Almakhan in Bantamweight Early Prelim

The early preliminary card of UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena kicks off next Saturday, May 10, 2025, live from the Bell Centre in Montreal, Canada. A compelling bantamweight bout is scheduled between Canadian fan favorite and TUF winner Brad "Superman" Katona and the powerful Kazakhstani prospect Bekzat Almakhan. Both fighters are looking to secure a victory and make their mark in the competitive 135-pound division.

Fighter Backgrounds

Brad Katona

Brad "Superman" Katona (16-4-0), representing SBG Ireland in Canada, is known for his toughness, cardio, and solid wrestling and striking skills. As a two-time winner of The Ultimate Fighter, Katona has proven his ability to grind out wins. He has one KO and four submission victories in his career, but often goes to decision.

Bekzat Almakhan

Bekzat Almakhan (11-2-0), known as "The Turan Warrior," hails from Kazakhstan and is a powerful bantamweight striker. With nine of his eleven wins coming via (T)KO, Almakhan possesses significant fight-ending power. He is looking to bounce back from his UFC debut loss and showcase his knockout ability on the big stage.

Fighting Styles and Strengths

Brad Katona

  • High Pace and Cardio: Katona is known for his relentless pressure and ability to maintain a high output throughout the fight (4.84 SIG STR LPM).
  • Solid Wrestling: Attempts 1.88 takedowns per 15 minutes (TD AVG) with a 34.09% accuracy (TD ACC).
  • Toughness and Durability: Difficult to finish, often pushing fights to decision.

Bekzat Almakhan

  • Devastating Striking Power: Almakhan's most significant weapon is his ability to finish opponents with strikes, with a high percentage of KOs.
  • Good Reach for Bantamweight: Possesses a 68" reach, which can be an advantage in striking exchanges.
  • Aggressive Approach: Tends to come forward and look for the finish.

Recent Performances

Brad Katona

Katona is looking to rebound from a unanimous decision loss to Jean Matsumoto in October 2024. Prior to that, he secured a unanimous decision victory over Jesse Butler in June 2024 but suffered a unanimous decision loss to Garrett Armfield in January 2024. He won The Ultimate Fighter 31 in August 2023 with a decision win over Cody Gibson.

Bekzat Almakhan

Almakhan is coming off a unanimous decision loss to the highly-ranked Umar Nurmagomedov in his UFC debut in March 2024, a tough welcome to the octagon. Prior to that, he was on a five-fight winning streak on the regional scene, including knockout victories in late 2023.

Odds and Betting Information

Fighter Odds
Brad Katona +155
Bekzat Almakhan -185

Bekzat Almakhan is the betting favorite in this bantamweight early preliminary bout with odds of -185, while Brad Katona is the underdog at +155.

Keys to Victory

Brad Katona

  • Implement Wrestling and Grappling: Katona's best path to victory is likely to take the fight to the ground and utilize his wrestling and control.
  • Wear Down Almakhan: Utilizing his cardio and grinding style to tire out the powerful striker.
  • Avoid Getting Caught: Katona needs to be extremely careful of Almakhan's knockout power in striking exchanges.

Bekzat Almakhan

  • Land Powerful Strikes: Almakhan's primary goal is to land a clean power shot and secure a knockout, especially in the early rounds.
  • Control Striking Distance: Using his reach effectively to land strikes while avoiding Katona's takedown attempts.
  • Defend Takedowns: Preventing Katona from getting the fight to the ground will be crucial.

Prediction

This bantamweight early prelim presents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic. While Brad Katona's toughness and wrestling are formidable, Bekzat Almakhan possesses significant knockout power that can change the fight in an instant. Almakhan's striking threat, particularly early in the fight, coupled with the oddsmakers favoring him, makes him the likely winner. Expect a competitive bout, but Almakhan has the tools to find the finish.

Prediction: Bekzat Almakhan to win (-185). As the betting favorite, Almakhan's devastating knockout power is the main reason for the pick. While Katona is tough and can wrestle, Almakhan has the ability to land a fight-ending shot that can bypass Katona's durability. Expect Almakhan to look for the finish early and secure a victory.

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