Thiago Moises vs Joel Alvarez Odds, Preview and Prediction, November 13 (11/13): UFC

Thiago Moises vs Joel Alvarez Odds, Preview and Prediction, November 13 (11/13): UFC

  • KV13
  • Kv13
  • Nov 11, 2021, 2:00:54 PM
Credit: photo by Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Time (Preliminary Card) 1:00 p.m. EST
Thiago Moises money line -240
Joel Alvarez money line +200


Key stats
  Thiago Moises Joel Alvarez
Height 5'9 6'3
Weight 155 155
Reach 70.5' 77'
Record 15-5 18-2
Streak L1 W3
Last 5 3-2 4-1




The preliminary card headliner comes in the Lightweight division, as Thiago Moises takes on Joel ‘El Fenomeno’ Alvarez. After seeing a three-fight win streak halted by Islam Makhachev, Moises will look to bounce back against the surging Spaniard. Since joining the UFC in 2018, Moises has won four of his seven fights inside the octagon. Losses to the 23-1 Damir Ismagulov, the #4 ranked Lightweight Islam Makhachev and the #3 ranked Lightweight Beneil Dariush rounds out the seven. In brief, Moises has lost to absolute killers in the division. Meanwhile, Alvarez comes into this fight on a three-fight win streak. Having not fought in over a year, Alvarez will need to shake off the rust in what could be called his biggest fight to date.




One of the more underrated fighters, who has evolved each time out in the UFC, has to be Thiago Moises. With losses to the wolves of the division, and wins over some solid fighters like Bobby Green, Alexander Hernandez and Michael Johnson, Moises certainly has proven to be top fifteen Lightweight. In what I can describe as a stylistically tough fight for Joel Alvarez, it’s not out of the realm he can once again surprise. It’s just hard seeing a style that relies on marching forward and dropping to guard working on the upper echelon of the division. No less against an excellent grappler himself in Thiago Moises. Who am I to say though. Alvarez has eighteen wins, all via stoppage and sixteen coming via submission. Clearly, he’s a specialist.

As for a prediction, I have Moises winning. While his striking isn’t anything special, it’s important to note that it has improved each fight out. However, Moises’ bread-and-butter is his grappling. Given Alvarez’s zero takedown defense and his willingness to drop down to guard, I don’t see Moises having any resistance in getting this fight to the ground. The only concerns are Alvarez’s submissions and his ability to reverse position. Given Alvarez wants this fight on the ground and has made a career there, I am wary of the situation. I just believe that Moises, being an excellent grappler, should be able to thwart any submission and reversal attempts. In the end, I believe Moises uses a steady diet of takedowns and top control to win via decision.


PICK: Thiago Moises (-240)


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