MAIN CARD
Featherweight — Diego Lopes (+205) vs. Jean Silva (-255)
Main Event 145 lb Orthodox vs Orthodox
MoneylineLopes +205
MoneylineSilva -255
Market Favorite: Silva
Pick: Diego Lopes (+205) — Confidence 3/5
Silva’s pressure boxing and first-layer TDD make him a deserved favorite, but Lopes is a high-leverage submission hunter who creates scrambles off counters and level-change feints. In longer exchanges he mixes jabs and kicks into back-takes and front-headlock chains. In a volatile fight, the dog price on Lopes’ finishing pathways (club-and-sub or opportunistic back take) is worth a stab.
Bantamweight — Rob Font (-110) vs. David Martinez (-110)
135 lb Pick’em
Moneyline Font -110
Moneyline Martinez -110
Market Even
Pick: Rob Font (-110) — Confidence 3/5
Font’s jab-first, high-volume boxing and veteran timing typically win minutes against rising punchers. Martinez brings power and momentum, but Font’s 1–2/low-kick cadence and clinch awareness usually steady the optics over 15 minutes.
Lightweight — Rafa Garcia (+210) vs. Jared Gordon (-260)
155 lb
MoneylineGarcia +210
MoneylineGordon -260
Market Favorite: Gordon
Pick: Jared Gordon (-260) — Confidence 3/5
Garcia’s best route is grindy fence time and mat returns; Gordon’s footwork, defensive wrestling, and combination punching can keep it at his range. Expect Gordon to edge a decision on cleaner entries and counters.
Middleweight — Kelvin Gastelum (-250) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+200)
185 lb
MoneylineGastelum -250
MoneylineStoltzfus +200
Market Favorite: Gastelum
Pick: Kelvin Gastelum (-250) — Confidence 3/5
Gastelum’s southpaw cross and pocket hand speed, paired with sturdy takedown defense and get-ups, make him a tough minutes-winner. Stoltzfus is improved, but KG’s strength of schedule and boxing edge lean his way.
Lightweight — Alexander Hernandez (-105) vs. Diego Ferreira (-115)
155 lb
Moneyline Hernandez -105
Moneyline Ferreira -115
Market Slight lean Ferreira
Pick: Diego Ferreira (-115) — Confidence 2/5
Hernandez is explosive early; Ferreira’s pressure, body work, and wrestling in transitions tend to wear down fast starters. Survive R1, then pull away late is the recipe.
Bantamweight — Santiago Luna (-135) vs. Quang Le (+115)
135 lb
MoneylineLuna -135
MoneylineLe +115
Market Favorite: Luna
Pick: Santiago Luna (-135) — Confidence 2/5
Tape suggests Luna’s the tidier technician with counter jabs and a wrestle-back pocket if Le overextends on kicks. Competitive, but Luna’s layered approach gets the nod.
PRELIMS
Middleweight — José Daniel Medina (+290) vs. Duško Todorović (-380)
185 lb
MoneylineMedina +290
MoneylineTodorović -380
Market Heavy favorite: Todorović
Pick: Duško Todorović (-380) — Confidence 3/5
Bigger hitter, stronger in clinch/body-lock sequences, and should press forward to rack up damage optics if he manages risk on entries.
Lightweight — Claudio Puelles (-115) vs. Joaquim Silva (-105)
155 lb
Moneyline Puelles -115
Moneyline Silva -105
Market Slight lean Puelles
Pick: Claudio Puelles (-115) — Confidence 2/5
Silva throws heat, but Puelles’ leg-lock threats and top control can stall output and steal rounds. If he gets extended grappling windows, he’s the side.
Women’s Strawweight — Tatiana Suarez (-500) vs. Amanda Lemos (+350)
115 lb
MoneylineSuarez -500
MoneylineLemos +350
Market Big favorite: Suarez
Pick: Tatiana Suarez (-500) — Confidence 4/5
Stylistic control: chain wrestling, mat returns, and smothering top pressure. Lemos carries one-shot danger, but sustained defensive wrestling has been her hurdle.
Flyweight — Jesús Aguilar (+170) vs. Luis Gurule (-200)
125 lb
MoneylineAguilar +170
MoneylineGurule -200
Market Favorite: Gurule
Pick: Jesús Aguilar (+170) — Confidence 2/5
Live dog. Aguilar thrives in scrambles with guillotine/back-take threats; if he can force clinch chaos, he can flip minutes or find a finish.
Middleweight — Zachary Reese (-250) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+200)
185 lb
MoneylineReese -250
MoneylineDumas +200
Market Favorite: Reese
Pick: Sedriques Dumas (+200) — Confidence 2/5
Price play. Dumas is the calmer striker now, with counter knees and improved clinch awareness; Reese’s defense in transitions is exploitable for a dog sprinkle.
Flyweight — Alessandro Costa (-400) vs. Alden Coria (+300)
125 lb
MoneylineCosta -400
MoneylineCoria +300
Market Big favorite: Costa
Pick: Alessandro Costa (-400) — Confidence 4/5
Sharper counters, damaging calf kicks, and better shot selection at flyweight pace; Coria’s volume is game, but the quality moments skew Costa.
Women’s Bantamweight — Montserrat Rendon (+125) vs. Alice Pereira (-150)
135 lb
MoneylineRendon +125
MoneylinePereira -150
Market Favorite: Pereira
Pick: Alice Pereira (-150) — Confidence 2/5
Cleaner pocket mechanics, better first-layer TDD, and counters that should limit Rendon’s clinch control game.
Welterweight — Rodrigo Sezinando (+185) vs. Daniil Donchenko (-225)
170 lb
MoneylineSezinando +185
MoneylineDonchenko -225
Market Favorite: Donchenko
Pick: Daniil Donchenko (-225) — Confidence 3/5
Longer frame, jab-first striking, and a credible wrestling fallback if the exchanges get messy. Minute-winning profile.
Quick Moneyline Recap (with confidence)
Lopes +205 (3/5), Font -110 (3/5), Gordon -260 (3/5), Gastelum -250 (3/5), Ferreira -115 (2/5), Luna -135 (2/5), Todorović -380 (3/5), Puelles -115 (2/5), Suarez -500 (4/5), Aguilar +170 (2/5), Dumas +200 (2/5), Costa -400 (4/5), Pereira -150 (2/5), Donchenko -225 (3/5).
Note: Lines you supplied are shown above; shop numbers and monitor weigh-ins/late scratches before betting.
