UFC Predictions & Best Bets — September 5, 2026

UFC best bets for September 5, 2026. This card covers all 12 scheduled fights and ranks the bets from strongest to weakest. The order matters: the first plays have the best mix of price and current win probability.

Use the listed sportsbook price as the target. A worse line can wipe out the value, especially on favorites and alternate spreads. Odds move throughout the day, so compare books before placing anything.

UFC best bets ranked

1. #1 Losene Keita vs Muhammadjon Naimov: Muhammadjon Naimov at +250
2. #2 Daniel Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse: Daniel Hooker at +390
3. #3 Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann: Ryan Spann at +215
4. #4 Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas: Modestas Bukauskas at +161
5. #5 Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro: Delphine Benouaich at -158
6. #6 Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola: Axel Sola at +132
7. #7 Michael Aljarouj vs Fabia Sintes: Fabia Sintes at +130
8. #8 Matthieu Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias: Matthieu Duclos at -105
9. #9 Michael Page vs Nursultan Ruziboev: Nursultan Ruziboev at +156
10. #10 Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima: Morgan Charriere at +165
11. #11 Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano: Punahele Soriano at +177
12. #12 Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek: Trevor Peek at +275

#1 Losene Keita vs Muhammadjon Naimov

Best bet: Muhammadjon Naimov (+250) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #1

Muhammadjon Naimov is available at +250 at DraftKings. The no-vig market is 29.1% compared with a 28.6% break-even rate at that price. Losene Keita brings record 16-2-0, wins by knockout 10, first round finishes 5, sig strikes landed 52. Muhammadjon Naimov brings record 13-4-0, wins by knockout 6, wins by submission 2, first round finishes 5. The supplied finish totals do not show a clear knockout or submission-count advantage for Muhammadjon Naimov over Losene Keita. That makes this a price-sensitive market lean rather than an athlete-mismatch claim.

Current market comparison

• Moneyline: Muhammadjon Naimov at +250 (DraftKings) — 29.1% market win probability vs 28.6% break-even.

What could change the bet

Keep Muhammadjon Naimov at +250 only if Losene Keita and Muhammadjon Naimov both make weight and the opponent, weight class, and bout format remain unchanged. A replacement or medical issue invalidates the fighter-style comparison used for Losene Keita vs Muhammadjon Naimov.

#2 Daniel Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse

Best bet: Daniel Hooker (+390) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #2

Daniel Hooker is available at +390 at DraftKings. The no-vig market is 20.5% compared with a 20.4% break-even rate at that price. Daniel Hooker brings record 24-14-0, wins by knockout 11, wins by submission 7, first round finishes 12. Salahdine Parnasse brings record 0-0-0. The supplied finish totals do not show a clear knockout or submission-count advantage for Daniel Hooker over Salahdine Parnasse. That makes this a price-sensitive market lean rather than an athlete-mismatch claim.

Current market comparison

• Moneyline: Daniel Hooker at +390 (DraftKings) — 20.5% market win probability vs 20.4% break-even.

What could change the bet

Keep Daniel Hooker at +390 only if Daniel Hooker and Salahdine Parnasse both make weight and the opponent, weight class, and bout format remain unchanged. A replacement or medical issue invalidates the fighter-style comparison used for Daniel Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse.

#3 Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann

Best bet: Ryan Spann (+215) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #3

Ryan Spann is available at +215 at DraftKings. The no-vig market is 31.5% compared with a 31.7% break-even rate at that price. Mario Pinto brings record 12-0-0, wins by knockout 7, wins by submission 1, first round finishes 5. Ryan Spann brings record 24-11-0, wins by knockout 7, wins by submission 14, first round finishes 18. The clearest documented win path for Ryan Spann is 14 submission wins to Mario Pinto's 1.

Current market comparison

• Moneyline: Ryan Spann at +215 (DraftKings) — 31.5% market win probability vs 31.7% break-even.

What could change the bet

Keep Ryan Spann at +215 only if Mario Pinto and Ryan Spann both make weight and the opponent, weight class, and bout format remain unchanged. A replacement or medical issue invalidates the fighter-style comparison used for Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann.

#4 Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas

Best bet: Modestas Bukauskas (+161) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #4

Modestas Bukauskas is available at +161 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 37.9% compared with a 38.3% break-even rate at that price. Oumar Sy brings record 12-2-0, wins by knockout 5, wins by submission 4, first round finishes 8. Modestas Bukauskas brings record 20-7-0, wins by knockout 11, wins by submission 3, first round finishes 8. The clearest documented win path for Modestas Bukauskas is 11 listed knockout wins to Oumar Sy's 5. The main style counter is Oumar Sy's 4 submission wins.

Current market comparison

• Moneyline: Modestas Bukauskas at +161 (BetOnline) — 37.9% market win probability vs 38.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Keep Modestas Bukauskas at +161 only if Oumar Sy and Modestas Bukauskas both make weight and the opponent, weight class, and bout format remain unchanged. A replacement or medical issue invalidates the fighter-style comparison used for Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas.

#5 Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro

Best bet: Delphine Benouaich (-158) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #5

Delphine Benouaich is available at -158 at FanDuel. The no-vig market is 60.5% compared with a 61.2% break-even rate at that price. Delphine Benouaich brings record 0-0-0. Sofia Montenegro brings record 6-2-0, wins by knockout 3, wins by submission 1, first round finishes 2. The supplied finish totals do not show a clear knockout or submission-count advantage for Delphine Benouaich over Sofia Montenegro. That makes this a price-sensitive market lean rather than an athlete-mismatch claim.

Current market comparison

• Moneyline: Delphine Benouaich at -158 (FanDuel) — 60.5% market win probability vs 61.2% break-even.

What could change the bet

Keep Delphine Benouaich at -158 only if Delphine Benouaich and Sofia Montenegro both make weight and the opponent, weight class, and bout format remain unchanged. A replacement or medical issue invalidates the fighter-style comparison used for Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro.

#6 Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola

Best bet: Axel Sola (+132) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #6

Axel Sola is available at +132 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 42.3% compared with a 43.1% break-even rate at that price. Fares Ziam brings record 18-5-0, wins by knockout 7, wins by submission 4, first round finishes 5. Axel Sola brings record 12-1-1, wins by knockout 6, wins by submission 2, sig strikes landed 143. The supplied finish totals do not show a clear knockout or submission-count advantage for Axel Sola over Fares Ziam. That makes this a price-sensitive market lean rather than an athlete-mismatch claim.

Current market comparison

• Moneyline: Axel Sola at +132 (BetOnline) — 42.3% market win probability vs 43.1% break-even.

What could change the bet

Keep Axel Sola at +132 only if Fares Ziam and Axel Sola both make weight and the opponent, weight class, and bout format remain unchanged. A replacement or medical issue invalidates the fighter-style comparison used for Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola.

#7 Michael Aljarouj vs Fabia Sintes

Best bet: Fabia Sintes (+130) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #7

Fabia Sintes is available at +130 at DraftKings. The no-vig market is 42.7% compared with a 43.5% break-even rate at that price. Michael Aljarouj brings record 0-0-0. Fabia Sintes brings record 0-0-0. The selection is tied to Fabia Sintes's listed record of 0-0-0 against Michael Aljarouj's 0-0-0, not merely to the underdog or favorite price.

Current market comparison

• Moneyline: Fabia Sintes at +130 (DraftKings) — 42.7% market win probability vs 43.5% break-even.

What could change the bet

Keep Fabia Sintes at +130 only if Michael Aljarouj and Fabia Sintes both make weight and the opponent, weight class, and bout format remain unchanged. A replacement or medical issue invalidates the fighter-style comparison used for Michael Aljarouj vs Fabia Sintes.

#8 Matthieu Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias

Best bet: Matthieu Duclos (-105) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #8

Matthieu Duclos is available at -105 at BetRivers. The no-vig market is 50.3% compared with a 51.2% break-even rate at that price. Matthieu Duclos brings record 0-1-0, sig strikes landed 30, sig strikes attempted 81. Luis Felipe Dias brings record 18-5-0, wins by knockout 9, wins by submission 8, first round finishes 12. The supplied finish totals do not show a clear knockout or submission-count advantage for Matthieu Duclos over Luis Felipe Dias. That makes this a price-sensitive market lean rather than an athlete-mismatch claim.

Current market comparison

• Moneyline: Matthieu Duclos at -105 (BetRivers) — 50.3% market win probability vs 51.2% break-even.

What could change the bet

Keep Matthieu Duclos at -105 only if Matthieu Duclos and Luis Felipe Dias both make weight and the opponent, weight class, and bout format remain unchanged. A replacement or medical issue invalidates the fighter-style comparison used for Matthieu Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias.

#9 Michael Page vs Nursultan Ruziboev

Best bet: Nursultan Ruziboev (+156) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #9

Nursultan Ruziboev is available at +156 at FanDuel. The no-vig market is 38.3% compared with a 39.1% break-even rate at that price. Michael Page brings record 25-3-0, wins by knockout 13, wins by submission 3, first round finishes 13. Nursultan Ruziboev brings record 37-9-2, wins by knockout 13, wins by submission 21, first round finishes 26. The clearest documented win path for Nursultan Ruziboev is 21 submission wins to Michael Page's 3.

Current market comparison

• Moneyline: Nursultan Ruziboev at +156 (FanDuel) — 38.3% market win probability vs 39.1% break-even.

What could change the bet

Keep Nursultan Ruziboev at +156 only if Michael Page and Nursultan Ruziboev both make weight and the opponent, weight class, and bout format remain unchanged. A replacement or medical issue invalidates the fighter-style comparison used for Michael Page vs Nursultan Ruziboev.

#10 Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima

Best bet: Morgan Charriere (+165) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #10

Morgan Charriere is available at +165 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 36.8% compared with a 37.7% break-even rate at that price. Morgan Charriere brings record 21-12-1, wins by knockout 13, wins by submission 3, first round finishes 8. Felipe Lima brings record 14-2-0, wins by knockout 4, wins by submission 3, first round finishes 5. The clearest documented win path for Morgan Charriere is 13 listed knockout wins to Felipe Lima's 4.

Current market comparison

• Moneyline: Morgan Charriere at +165 (BetOnline) — 36.8% market win probability vs 37.7% break-even.

What could change the bet

Keep Morgan Charriere at +165 only if Morgan Charriere and Felipe Lima both make weight and the opponent, weight class, and bout format remain unchanged. A replacement or medical issue invalidates the fighter-style comparison used for Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima.

#11 Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano

Best bet: Punahele Soriano (+177) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #11

Punahele Soriano is available at +177 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 35.2% compared with a 36.1% break-even rate at that price. Daniil Donchenko brings record 15-2-0, wins by knockout 10, wins by submission 2, first round finishes 5. Punahele Soriano brings record 13-4-0, wins by knockout 7, wins by submission 2, first round finishes 8. The supplied finish totals do not show a clear knockout or submission-count advantage for Punahele Soriano over Daniil Donchenko. That makes this a price-sensitive market lean rather than an athlete-mismatch claim.

Current market comparison

• Moneyline: Punahele Soriano at +177 (BetOnline) — 35.2% market win probability vs 36.1% break-even.

What could change the bet

Keep Punahele Soriano at +177 only if Daniil Donchenko and Punahele Soriano both make weight and the opponent, weight class, and bout format remain unchanged. A replacement or medical issue invalidates the fighter-style comparison used for Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano.

#12 Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek

Best bet: Trevor Peek (+275) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #12

Trevor Peek is available at +275 at DraftKings. The no-vig market is 25.8% compared with a 26.7% break-even rate at that price. Kurtis Campbell brings record 8-1-0, wins by knockout 5, wins by submission 1, first round finishes 4. Trevor Peek brings record 9-3-0, wins by knockout 8, first round finishes 6, sig strikes landed 319. The clearest documented win path for Trevor Peek is 8 listed knockout wins to Kurtis Campbell's 5.

Current market comparison

• Moneyline: Trevor Peek at +275 (DraftKings) — 25.8% market win probability vs 26.7% break-even.

What could change the bet

Keep Trevor Peek at +275 only if Kurtis Campbell and Trevor Peek both make weight and the opponent, weight class, and bout format remain unchanged. A replacement or medical issue invalidates the fighter-style comparison used for Kurtis Campbell vs Trevor Peek.

Final UFC betting card

The list above is already ordered from best to worst. Start at the top, demand the listed price, and skip any play after a bad line move. Smaller edges belong lower on the card and should not be treated like the top bet.

Shop the final card once across multiple sportsbooks. Take the best available price for the exact selection and point shown; do not substitute a worse number merely because the matchup is the same.

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Bet only what you can afford to lose. Odds and lineups can change.