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UFC 305: Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns Preview and Prediction

On August 17, 2024, UFC 305 will feature an intriguing featherweight bout between Australia's own Jack Jenkins and Brazil's submission specialist, Herbert Burns, at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Both fighters are at pivotal points in their careers, with Jenkins aiming to bounce back from a recent loss and Burns looking to end a three-fight skid. This article provides a comprehensive breakdown of the fighters' backgrounds, fighting styles, recent performances, and a prediction for the fight.

 

Event Overview

UFC 305, headlined by the highly anticipated middleweight championship bout between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya, features a card filled with exciting matchups. Among these is the featherweight clash between Jack Jenkins and Herbert Burns, a fight that could significantly impact both fighters' futures in the division. Jenkins, fighting in front of a home crowd, will look to reestablish himself as a rising contender, while Burns, a seasoned veteran, seeks to halt his recent losing streak and prove he still has what it takes to compete at the highest level.

 

Jack Jenkins: The Australian Contender

Background and Career Highlights

Jack Jenkins, known as "Phar," is one of Australia's promising featherweight prospects. Born on November 3, 1993, Jenkins has amassed a professional record of 12-3-0. Standing 5'7" tall with a reach of 68 inches, Jenkins may not be the tallest in the division, but he makes up for it with his explosive striking and relentless pace. He trains out of Absolute Mixed Martial Arts, a gym known for producing well-rounded fighters.

Jenkins' career has been marked by his striking prowess, with five of his twelve victories coming by way of KO/TKO. He made his UFC debut in 2023 and quickly made a name for himself with a series of impressive performances. However, his momentum was recently halted by a knockout loss to Chepe Mariscal in September 2023. Despite this setback, Jenkins remains a fighter to watch, with his powerful striking and ability to adapt making him a threat in the featherweight division.

 

Fighting Style and Strengths

Jack Jenkins is primarily a striker, known for his ability to switch stances and deliver powerful, accurate strikes. His striking accuracy stands at an impressive 62.87%, and he lands an average of 4.43 significant strikes per minute. Jenkins uses his switch stance to create angles and confuse his opponents, making it difficult for them to predict his next move.

In addition to his striking, Jenkins has solid takedown defense and a decent ground game, though he prefers to keep the fight standing. His takedown accuracy is a notable 69.23%, and while he doesn't often seek submissions, his grappling skills are sufficient to avoid danger on the ground. Jenkins' ability to maintain a high pace throughout the fight makes him a challenging opponent for anyone in the division.

 

Weaknesses and Areas for Improvement

While Jenkins has shown great potential, his recent knockout loss exposed some vulnerabilities in his defense, particularly against powerful strikers. He was caught by a well-timed shot from Mariscal, which ended the fight in the second round. This loss highlighted the need for Jenkins to improve his striking defense, especially against opponents with heavy hands.

Another area where Jenkins could improve is his grappling. While he has solid takedown defense, his ground game is still a work in progress. As he faces higher-level competition, Jenkins will need to ensure that his grappling skills are on par with his striking to avoid being exploited by submission specialists like Burns.

 

Herbert Burns: The Submission Specialist

Background and Career Highlights

Herbert Burns, nicknamed "The Blaze," is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with a professional record of 11-5-0. Born on February 2, 1988, Burns has been a part of the MMA scene for over a decade, competing in various promotions before making his UFC debut in 2020. Training out of Kill Cliff FC, Burns is known for his dangerous submission game, with eight of his eleven victories coming by way of submission.

Burns' UFC career started strong with two consecutive finishes, but he has struggled in recent years, suffering three straight knockout losses. His most recent defeat came against Julio Arce in March 2024, where he was stopped in the second round. Despite these setbacks, Burns remains a formidable opponent, particularly if he can bring the fight to the ground, where his submission skills can shine.

 

Fighting Style and Strengths

Herbert Burns is a grappler at heart, with a strong preference for taking the fight to the mat and hunting for submissions. His striking is serviceable, but it is primarily used to set up his grappling. Burns has a takedown average of 3.00 per 15 minutes and a takedown accuracy of 42.86%, making him a constant threat to drag the fight into his world.

Burns' submission game is where he truly excels. With an average of 2.50 submissions per 15 minutes, Burns has the ability to finish fights from a variety of positions. His most notable wins have come via rear-naked choke, a testament to his ability to control opponents and finish fights on the ground. Burns' grappling is his greatest strength, and he will undoubtedly look to take the fight to the ground as soon as possible.

 

Weaknesses and Recent Struggles

Despite his grappling prowess, Burns has struggled with his striking defense, particularly against powerful strikers. His last three losses have all come by knockout, raising concerns about his ability to withstand the power of his opponents. Burns' striking is not as polished as his grappling, and he often leaves himself open to counters when attempting to close the distance.

Another concern for Burns is his durability. At 36 years old, Burns has taken a significant amount of damage over his career, and his recent performances suggest that his chin may not be as strong as it once was. To succeed against a powerful striker like Jenkins, Burns will need to avoid taking clean shots and find a way to neutralize Jenkins' striking early in the fight.

 

The Matchup: Jenkins’ Striking vs. Burns’ Grappling

This featherweight bout presents a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Jack Jenkins will look to keep the fight standing and use his superior striking to overwhelm Burns. His ability to switch stances and mix up his attacks will be crucial in keeping Burns off balance and preventing him from closing the distance. Jenkins' knockout power gives him a significant advantage if the fight remains on the feet.

On the other hand, Herbert Burns will aim to take the fight to the ground as quickly as possible. His path to victory is clear: secure a takedown and work towards a submission. If Burns can get Jenkins to the mat, he will have a good chance of finishing the fight, given Jenkins' relative inexperience against high-level grapplers.

The key factor in this fight will be whether Burns can successfully close the distance and execute his takedowns. If Jenkins can maintain his range and avoid being taken down, he should be able to control the fight and potentially secure a knockout victory. However, if Burns can impose his grappling game, Jenkins could find himself in deep trouble.

 

Implications for the Featherweight Division

This fight carries significant implications for both fighters' careers. For Jack Jenkins, a victory would solidify his position as a rising contender in the featherweight division and could earn him a matchup against a ranked opponent. Fighting in front of his home crowd in Australia adds extra motivation for Jenkins to deliver a standout performance.

For Herbert Burns, this fight represents a critical opportunity to end his losing streak and prove that he still belongs in the UFC. A win would not only halt his current skid but also reaffirm his status as a dangerous submission artist. However, another loss could put Burns' UFC career in jeopardy, making this fight a must-win for the Brazilian veteran.

The Psychological Battle: Confidence vs. Pressure

The psychological aspect of this fight is crucial. Jack Jenkins is fighting with the confidence of a young contender looking to make a name for himself in the UFC. However, he must be cautious not to underestimate Burns' experience and submission skills. Fighting in front of a supportive Australian crowd will add pressure on Jenkins to perform, but it could also provide the adrenaline boost he needs to secure a victory.

For Herbert Burns, the pressure is on to prove that he still has what it takes to compete at the highest level. Coming off three knockout losses, Burns may be battling doubts about his chin and durability. However, with his back against the wall, Burns could be more motivated than ever to deliver a performance that silences his critics and secures his place in the UFC.

 

The Importance of Strategy and Execution

Strategy will play a critical role in determining the outcome of this fight. For Jack Jenkins, the key is to keep the fight standing and use his striking to dismantle Burns from a distance. Jenkins should focus on using his footwork to maintain range and avoid engaging in clinches where Burns could attempt takedowns. If Jenkins can stay disciplined and pick his shots, he has a strong chance of winning by knockout.

Herbert Burns, on the other hand, must close the distance and force the fight to the ground. Burns should look for opportunities to catch Jenkins off guard with a takedown or pull guard if necessary. Once on the ground, Burns will need to capitalize quickly, as Jenkins will be doing everything he can to return to his feet. Burns' submission skills give him a clear path to victory, but he must avoid taking too much damage while trying to get the fight to the mat.

 

Potential Strategies for Victory

For Jack Jenkins, the path to victory lies in his striking. He should use his reach and stance-switching ability to keep Burns at a distance and land powerful strikes from the outside. Jenkins' knockout power makes him a significant threat, and if he can catch Burns with a clean shot, he could end the fight early. Defensively, Jenkins should focus on avoiding takedown attempts and staying off the cage, where Burns could look to grapple.

For Herbert Burns, the strategy revolves around getting the fight to the ground. Burns should be relentless in his pursuit of takedowns and look to capitalize on any opportunity to drag Jenkins into his world. Once on the ground, Burns' submission game gives him a strong chance of finishing the fight. Burns may also benefit from using his striking to set up takedowns, catching Jenkins off guard with a well-timed shot before shooting for a takedown.

 

What’s at Stake: Career Implications for Both Fighters

This fight holds significant stakes for both fighters. For Jack Jenkins, a win would propel him further up the featherweight rankings and potentially set him up for a fight against a top-15 opponent. A dominant victory, particularly by knockout, would enhance Jenkins' reputation as a dangerous striker and solidify his status as a prospect to watch in the division.

For Herbert Burns, this fight is a make-or-break moment. A win would end his losing streak and reaffirm his place in the UFC. However, another knockout loss could jeopardize his career in the organization, making this fight critical for Burns' future. The outcome of this fight will likely determine whether Burns can continue his UFC career or if he will need to consider other options.

 

The Fight’s Potential to Captivate Fans

While UFC 305 is headlined by the blockbuster middleweight title fight between Du Plessis and Adesanya, the featherweight bout between Jack Jenkins and Herbert Burns has the potential to be one of the night’s most captivating matchups. The contrast in styles between Jenkins’ striking and Burns’ grappling creates an intriguing dynamic that could lead to a highly entertaining fight.

Fans can expect an intense battle, with Jenkins likely pushing the pace early and looking to land heavy shots, while Burns attempts to drag the fight to the ground and work for a submission. The potential for a quick finish is high, given Jenkins’ knockout power and Burns’ recent struggles with durability. However, if the fight goes into the later rounds, it could become a test of will and endurance, with both fighters digging deep to secure the win.

This matchup has all the ingredients for a Fight of the Night contender, and it will be fascinating to see how it unfolds. Whether it ends in a highlight-reel knockout or a thrilling submission, this fight is sure to leave a lasting impression on the fans and have significant implications for both fighters’ careers.

 

Prediction