UFC 307 Picks: Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley – Fight Preview and Prediction

In a highly anticipated welterweight bout at UFC 307, **Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson** (17-7-1) will take on the explosive **Joaquin "New Mansa" Buckley** (19-6-0) on October 5, 2024, at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Thompson, a karate specialist, is looking to bounce back after a submission loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov, while Buckley, riding a four-fight win streak, seeks to continue his surge up the division rankings.

As the #1 MMA expert at KingPin Pro, with a 74% success rate on UFC picks, I’ll break down this matchup and provide my expert prediction. Be sure to check out my Lucindo vs Rodriguez Article Prediction for more UFC insights.

Fighter Analysis

Stephen Thompson Overview

Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson is a seasoned striker with an unorthodox karate-based style. Known for his precision striking, distance control, and movement, Thompson has 8 knockout wins to his name. Despite being 41 years old, he remains a tricky puzzle for many fighters in the division. However, he’s struggled against grapplers and those who can close the distance. Thompson is coming off a submission loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov, showing vulnerabilities on the ground.

Joaquin Buckley Overview

Joaquin Buckley has established himself as one of the most explosive strikers in the UFC. With 13 knockouts in his career, Buckley’s power and aggressive style make him a dangerous opponent for anyone. He’s improved his all-around game, mixing in solid takedown defense and high-volume striking, as seen in his recent wins. Buckley’s ability to pressure opponents and finish fights early will be key in this matchup against the older Thompson.

Key Fighter Stats

Stephen Thompson:
- Record: 17-7-1
- Knockouts: 8-1
- Submissions: 1-1
- Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: 4.11
- Significant Strike Accuracy: 49.76%
- Takedown Average: 0.26
Joaquin Buckley:
- Record: 19-6-0
- Knockouts: 13-4
- Submissions: 0-0
- Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: 4.25
- Significant Strike Accuracy: 39.12%
- Takedown Average: 1.69

Odds Table

Fighter	Moneyline
Joaquin Buckley	-235
Stephen Thompson	+190

Prediction

This fight presents an intriguing clash of styles, with Thompson’s technical striking and movement facing off against Buckley’s raw power and aggression. While Thompson has the experience and striking finesse, his age and declining ability to deal with pressure fighters could be a major factor in this fight. Buckley’s power and ability to close the distance quickly will challenge Thompson, and if Buckley can pressure early, he could find a path to victory.

Buckley’s recent form and youth give him the edge in this matchup, and his ability to land powerful strikes could overwhelm the aging Thompson. Expect Buckley to push the pace and look for a knockout or a dominant decision victory.

Pick: Joaquin Buckley (-235)

Kingpin app

Get ranked cards for this game in the app

Tracked experts, Edge scores, and alerts on iPhone and Android.

Get the App

Start free trial

Simulated results. Entertainment only. Gambling involves risk.

Methodology and disclosure

Historical Kingpin articles preserve original body copy, authors, and publication dates. Structured pick or odds modules appear only when the source article provides them.

Kingpin app

Continue in the Kingpin app

Transparent simulated records. Entertainment only.

Get the App

Start free trial

Simulated results. Entertainment only. Gambling involves risk.