2025 PFL First Round (April 18) – Middleweights & Lightweights Predictions and Picks

The 2025 PFL World Tournament rolls on Friday, April 18, 2025, with a stacked card at Universal Studios in Orlando, FL. This event features the first round of the Middleweight and Lightweight brackets, showcasing former champions and UFC/Bellator veterans in pivotal matchups. Below we preview every fight on the April 18 PFL card – with detailed stylistic analysis, latest betting odds, confident predictions, and even a few prop bet angles. By the end, we’ll also lock in a three-leg parlay and answer common FAQs about PFL 3. Let’s dive into these PFL fight predictions for April 18, 2025.

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Impa Kasanganay vs. Fabian Edwards – Middleweight Main Event Prediction

Odds: Kasanganay -185 (favorite), Edwards +160 (underdog)
Background: Former UFC fighter Impa Kasanganay enters as the 2023 PFL light heavyweight tournament champion, now dropping back to 185 lbs. Known initially for being on the wrong end of a viral KO in 2020, Kasanganay rebuilt himself into a well-rounded force, winning a PFL championship and compiling an 8-2 record in the league. Across the cage, Fabian “The Assassin” Edwards is a two-time Bellator title challenger (and brother of UFC champ Leon Edwards) making his PFL debut. Edwards went 4-2 in his last six, with both losses coming in Bellator middleweight title fights against Johnny Eblen. This matchup pits Kasanganay’s pressure and power against Edwards’ striking savvy.

Stylistic Analysis: Kasanganay has evolved from a pure grappler into a confident striker with knockout power. Since moving up in weight post-UFC, he’s demonstrated improved hand speed, forward pressure, and excellent cardio. Impa can fight at a high pace for three rounds and mix in wrestling when needed. Edwards is a long southpaw kickboxer who manages distance well and fires sharp kicks and punches at range. Fabian’s Achilles heel has been strong wrestlers – he struggled to stay off the cage against Eblen’s takedowns and clinch work. On the feet, Edwards has the edge in pure technique and has flashed knockout ability (notably a head-kick KO of Lyoto Machida). However, Kasanganay’s relentless forward movement and clinch game could neutralize Edwards’ kickboxing if he closes distance effectively.

Fight Breakdown: Expect Kasanganay to press forward from the opening bell, forcing Edwards to fight off the back foot. Impa will test Fabian’s takedown defense and willingness to trade in the pocket. Edwards needs to use lateral movement, jab-kick combinations, and keep this fight in open space. If Fabian can stick and move, he could rack up points or even catch Kasanganay coming in with a knee or uppercut. However, Kasanganay’s composure and durability have grown since his UFC stint – he took a spinning kick KO loss in stride and hasn’t been finished since. Over three rounds, the more well-rounded fighter with higher output tends to prevail. Kasanganay’s wrestling threat should limit Edwards’ offense, and his improved striking means Fabian can’t simply outpoint him from distance.

Projected Winner: Impa Kasanganay – We’re confident the PFL veteran will impose his game and grind out the win. The most likely outcome is Kasanganay by decision, using cage control, flurries in close, and maybe a couple of timely takedowns to seal the rounds. (For bettors, Kasanganay’s moneyline around -185 has value, and Kasanganay by decisionis a solid prop pick given both men’s durability.)

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Alexander Shabliy vs. Brent Primus – Lightweight Co-Main (Primus vs. Cenci Update)

Odds: (Originally Shabliy -220 vs. Primus +175. Now Primus is a -330 favorite vs late-replacement Cenci.)
Background: This fight was originally a highly anticipated rematch between Russia’s Alexander Shabliy and former Bellator champion Brent Primus. Shabliy defeated Primus via TKO in 2023, and Primus was hungry for revenge in this PFL tournament. However, Shabliy withdrew from the bracket, and Brazilian newcomer Vinicius Cenci stepped in on short notice. Brent Primus (15-4, 1 NC) now faces a lesser-known opponent, but still an important fight for Primus’s tournament hopes at age 40. Vinicius Cenci (8-2) is a submission specialist making his big-stage debut.

Stylistic Analysis: Primus is a well-rounded veteran with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and underrated striking. He’s perhaps best known for upsetting Michael Chandler for the Bellator title back in 2017 and for his slick submissions (like his gogoplata choke win in 2022). At 5’10”, Primus is strong in the clinch and has nasty leg kicks (he once TKO’d a UFC vet with low kicks). That said, Primus has been knocked out before (Rabadanov stopped him with punches last year), raising questions about his chin as he ages. Cenci is a wildcard – a Brazilian lightweight with a high finish rate on regional circuits. From available data, Cenci favors grappling, with the majority of his wins by submission. On the feet he’s likely at a disadvantage against Primus’s experience and kickboxing. Stepping in on just days’ notice also means Cenci’s cardio and preparation are uncertain.

Fight Breakdown: Primus prepared for an elite striker/grappler in Shabliy, and now faces a far less accomplished foe. Expect Primus to set a high pace early and test Cenci’s comfort level. Brent may actually prefer to keep this standing and batter the newcomer with kicks and boxing combos, knowing Cenci’s best chance is probably a lucky submission on the mat. Cenci will likely look for takedown opportunities or pull guard if hurt, but Primus’s BJJ pedigree should keep him safe from being caught. In fact, Primus might welcome grappling exchanges to prove a point. With his career on the line after recent losses, Primus cannot afford a slip-up here. The motivation and huge experience gap all favor the American.

Projected Winner: Brent Primus – This is Primus’s fight to lose, and we don’t see an upset happening. He should dominate a short-notice opponent. Look for Primus to possibly get a finish: a submission if the fight hits the ground (given Cenci’s aggressive but risky grappling) or a TKO if he keeps it standing and wears Cenci down. Primus inside the distance is a good prop if the odds are reasonable, but his straight moneyline is a safe parlay anchor despite being chalky. Primus by submission in the mid rounds is our specific pick in this one-sided matchup.

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Gadzhi Rabadanov vs. Marc Diakiese – Lightweight Showdown Prediction

Odds: Rabadanov -500 (heavy favorite), Diakiese +375 (value underdog)
Background: Gadzhi Rabadanov (24-4-2) stormed onto the scene last year by winning the PFL lightweight tournament and the $1 million prize. A protégé of Khabib Nurmagomedov’s team, Rabadanov showcased ferocious striking powerin 2024, knocking out both his semifinal opponent and Brent Primus in the final. He’s riding high with confidence. Marc “Bonecrusher” Diakiese (18-7) is a UFC veteran making his PFL debut. Diakiese faced elite competition in the UFC and is known for his explosive striking and athleticism, though in recent years he also showed off improved wrestling. Notably, Diakiese has never been knocked out, despite fighting hitters like Rafael Fiziev and Dan Hooker, which makes this matchup intriguing given Rabadanov’s KO streak.

Stylistic Analysis: Rabadanov’s style has evolved from grappling-heavy to heavy-handed brawler with wrestling in his back pocket. He fights aggressively, swinging big hooks and overhands, and will shoot takedowns if opponents start out-striking him. His forward pressure can be overwhelming, but it also can tax his gas tank. Diakiese is a dynamic striker with fast kicks and punches; early in his career he was known for flashy knockouts. Lately, however, Marc shifted to a more grind-heavy approach – utilizing takedowns and top control in a couple of UFC wins. On the feet, Diakiese’s technique and speed could pose problems for Rabadanov if he stays technical. Marc’s defense and chin are solid, which means Gadzhi might not find the quick finish he’s used to. If the fight goes long, Diakiese’s experience in three-round battles could come into play.

Fight Breakdown: Most bettors expect Rabadanov to steamroll here, but this could be closer than the odds suggest. Early on, Rabadanov will come out firing his power shots, looking to test Diakiese’s chin and willingness to engage. Diakiese should actually use movement and try to extend this fight. If Marc can survive the initial storm without major damage, frustration could set in for Gadzhi. Diakiese’s path to victory is to drag Rabadanov into deep water – avoid the KO, counter with quick strikes, and mix in takedown attempts to sap Gadzhi’s energy. Given Rabadanov’s confidence (perhaps even overconfidence) after a dominant season, he may underprepare for the crafty veteran in front of him. Diakiese’s leg kicks and jabs could score points while Gadzhi loads up on haymakers. One concern is Diakiese’s own offense; he can be too low-volume at times. He’ll need to let his hands go enough to win rounds.

Projected Winner: Marc Diakiese (Upset) – We’re going against the grain and taking a bold underdog pick here. The combination of Diakiese’s durability and veteran savvy leads us to believe he can upset the odds. The call is Diakiese by decision, using movement and a higher strike output late as Rabadanov fades. It’s a risky pick – Rabadanov certainly has fight-ending power early – but as an underdog at +375, Diakiese offers tremendous betting value. If you’re feeling less adventurous on the outright pick, consider Diakiese +1.5 rounds or “Fight goes the distance” as alternative value plays. But our official pick is the Brit to shock the PFL world with an upset win on points.

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Mads Burnell vs. Jay-Jay Wilson – Lightweight Bout Prediction

Odds: Jay-Jay Wilson -140 (slight favorite), Mads Burnell +120 (underdog)
Background: In an intriguing lightweight contest, former Cage Warriors champion Mads Burnell (20-6) faces off with New Zealand’s Jay-Jay Wilson (10-1). Burnell is a Danish fighter who had a stint in the UFC and a solid run in Bellator’s featherweight division. He’s known for his high-paced boxing and submission grappling (he has 9 submission wins). However, Burnell hit a rough patch recently, dropping a couple of fights in Bellator before signing with PFL. Jay-Jay “The Maori Kid” Wilson is a fast-rising prospect who also made his name in Bellator at 145 lbs, with his sole loss a decision to a top contender (Mansour Barnaoui). Wilson is moving up to 155 lbs for the PFL tournament, bringing with him a dangerous ground game (several submission victories) and youthful explosiveness at 25 years old.

Stylistic Analysis: Burnell is a pressure fighter through and through. He likes to march forward with tight boxing combinations, dig to the body and head, and then change levels for takedowns or jump on necks if opponents give an opening. At 5’8”, he’s stocky but uses that to his advantage by staying in close range. Wilson will enjoy a height and reach advantage (he’s 5’11”) and will try to fight long – sniping with kicks and punches from the outside. On the mat, both men are BJJ black belts; Burnell has a renowned Japanese necktie choke in his arsenal, while Wilson has slick back-takes and chokes. The big question is how Wilson handles Burnell’s suffocating pressure, especially now at a higher weight. If Wilson’s cardio holds and he uses his reach, he could pick Burnell apart as the Dane plods forward. But if Wilson lets Burnell close distance easily, Mads will make it a dirty fight in the clinch and wear on the younger man.

Fight Breakdown: This feels like a true 50-50 matchup, and the odds reflect it. Early on, Wilson’s speed and length might give Burnell issues – expect Wilson to fire teep kicks, jabs, and even flying knees to keep Burnell at bay. Mads will relentlessly try to cut off the cage and turn this into a phone-booth boxing match. The first round could be Wilson’s best; he has sharp offense when fresh. By round two, if Burnell’s pressure is paying off, we might see Wilson forced into grappling exchanges or defensive shell. One wildcard: Burnell’s chin. He’s typically durable, but he was rocked and outpointed in some recent losses. Wilson carries decent power at 145; at 155 he might have even more pop. Conversely, Wilson’s ground defense was tested in his lone loss (he got controlled on the mat), so Burnell could exploit that if he gets on top.

Projected Winner: Jay-Jay Wilson – It’s a razor-close call, but we lean ever so slightly toward Wilson’s youth and versatility. He can win striking exchanges at range and has the jiu-jitsu to defend Burnell’s submissions if taken down. The pick is Wilson by decision in a competitive fight (potentially 29-28 on the cards). Burnell will have his moments, especially if he drags Wilson into a brawl, but we expect Wilson to land the cleaner shots and show enough takedown defense to edge it out. Betting-wise, this fight is nearly a pick’em – not our favorite to wager on given the variables. However, over 2.5 rounds is a reasonable play since both are tough and skilled enough to likely go the distance.

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Sadibou Sy vs. Dalton Rosta – Middleweight Clash Prediction

Odds: Sadibou Sy -125 (slight favorite), Dalton Rosta +105 (underdog)
Background: A PFL tournament veteran meets a Bellator import in this middleweight showdown. Sadibou Sy (17-8-2, 1 NC) is a former PFL Welterweight champion (2022’s $1M winner) who has competed as high as light heavyweight. The 6'3" Swedish striker is one of PFL’s most experienced fighters, though he struggled when he ventured to 205 lbs last year. Now Sy is dropping into the newly formed 185 lb division looking to regain tournament glory. Dalton “Hercules” Rosta(9-1) is a highly-touted prospect making his PFL debut. Rosta was a dominant middleweight in Bellator, known for his chiseled physique and heavy hands. His lone career loss came via decision to Aaron Jeffery (also on this card), and at 28 years old, Rosta is entering his prime. This fight pits Sy’s rangy kickboxing against Rosta’s power punching and wrestling base.

Stylistic Analysis: Sy is a technical kickboxer with a karate background – he fights long behind side kicks, spinning kicks, and sharp straight punches. His height and 75" reach often frustrate opponents, as he’s excellent at maintaining distance and counter-striking. Sy’s weakness historically has been strong wrestlers who can pressure him (he’s been taken down and controlled in some PFL fights, though his defensive grappling has improved). Dalton Rosta brings exactly the kind of pressure that could challenge Sy. Rosta has a collegiate wrestling background and explosive boxing combinations. Four of Rosta’s nine wins are by knockout, usually coming from blitzing flurries once he closes the gap. He’s also never been finished. However, Rosta has never faced someone with the striking pedigree of Sy nor someone as experienced in five-round/tournament settings. If Rosta can’t get Sy down or consistently threaten, he may be stuck at the end of Sy’s kicks eating damage.

Fight Breakdown: We expect a classic range battle. Sy will want this fight at kicking distance – if he’s flicking his jab and slamming body kicks from outside, it’s his world. Rosta will attempt to cut off the cage quickly and either unload punches in the pocket or change levels for takedowns. The first round or two, Rosta’s athleticism and aggression could give Sy problems. Sy might need to clinch to stall if pressed, or use oblique kicks to slow Rosta’s forward movement. A key factor is cardio: Sy has been in many long fights and can maintain output over three rounds. Rosta is muscular and powerful, which sometimes leads to slowing down in later rounds if forced to grapple or swing and miss. If Rosta can’t find early success, he could get frustrated by Sy’s elusive style. Conversely, if Sy can’t keep Rosta off of him, Dalton could steal rounds with cage control and short bursts of ground-and-pound after takedowns.

Projected Winner: Sadibou Sy – We’re siding with the veteran here. Sy’s experience and reach management should allow him to pick apart Rosta over the course of three rounds. It may be tense early, but expect Sy to survive any early blitz and then turn up the volume with jabs, leg kicks, and spinning body kicks as Rosta’s pace slows. Sy by decision is the call, as the Swede will likely play it smart and technical to accumulate points rather than risk a brawl with the heavy-hitting Rosta. From a betting perspective, Sy around -125 is a solid play given his championship experience. If you fancy props, Sy by points is the most probable outcome. Rosta is a live dog with a puncher’s chance (and the wrestling ability to swing rounds), but we feel Sy’s length and veteran savvy will be the difference.

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Josh Silveira vs. Mike Shipman – Middleweight Bout Prediction

Odds: Silveira -240 (favorite), Shipman +200 (underdog)
Background: American Top Team standout Josh Silveira (13-4) takes on British veteran Mike “Sea Bass” Shipman(17-4) in another compelling middleweight tilt. Silveira is the son of MMA legend Conan Silveira and a two-time PFL playoff contender at light heavyweight. He’s dropping to 185 lbs for this tournament, looking to capitalize on a size and grappling advantage. Mike Shipman is a longtime Bellator fighter known for his wild fighting style and knockout power. Shipman has fought top competition like Fabian Edwards and Costello van Steenis, though he fell short in those big fights. Now at 32, Shipman sees PFL as a fresh start. This matchup features Silveira’s grappling and well-rounded game against Shipman’s unpredictable striking.

Stylistic Analysis: Silveira is a grappler at heart – a former collegiate wrestler with a black belt in BJJ. Most of his wins in PFL have come via submission or dominant ground-and-pound. At 6’2”, he will have a bit of height on Shipman and likely a strength edge. Josh’s stand-up is serviceable; he uses punches mainly to set up level changes. Shipman, by contrast, is quite awkward but dangerous on the feet. He’s got knockout wins with punches and knees, often blitzing forward with unorthodox strikes. However, Shipman’s aggression has cost him – he’s been knocked out cold by a flying knee (from Fabian Edwards) and has shown a suspect chin when exchanging recklessly. On the mat, Shipman is decent but not exceptional; he can be submitted (John Salter tapped him out in Bellator). If Shipman can keep this standing, he’ll want to turn it into a firefight. But if Silveira gets his hands locked around Shipman, it could be a rough night for the Brit.

Fight Breakdown: This is a matchup where Silveira holds most of the keys. Expect Josh to waste little time testing the stand-up. He might throw a couple of feeler kicks or jabs, but his goal will be to shoot a takedown or clinch up as soon as he can. Shipman’s stance is often wide (for generating power), which could leave him vulnerable to Josh’s double-leg takedown. Once Silveira gets on top, he is suffocating. Shipman will try to scramble, but giving up his back or a neck to a grappler of Silveira’s caliber is dangerous. If for some reason Silveira can’t get it down early, we’ll get to see how his chin holds up – Shipman will surely throw some flying knees or overhand rights to test him. But historically, Silveira’s fight IQ is solid; he doesn’t mess around playing to an opponent’s strength. On the flip side, Mike Shipman absolutely must capitalize on any small opportunity. A flying knee as Silveira shoots, a big uppercut in close, something unpredictable is his ticket to an upset.

Projected Winner: Josh Silveira – We view Silveira as a fairly safe pick here. His superior wrestling and submission game should allow him to dominate. Silveira by submission is a very realistic outcome, potentially in the first or second round once he secures a takedown. A ground-and-pound TKO is also possible if Shipman gets stuck. Either way, we don’t see this one going the distance. At -240, Silveira is pricey, but he justifies the favorite status and is a strong parlay piece. For a better return, look at Silveira to win inside the distance (ITD) or specifically by submission prop, as Mike Shipman has historically struggled with grapplers of Josh’s caliber.

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Clay Collard vs. Alfie Davis – Lightweight Bout Prediction

Odds: Clay Collard -120 (favorite), Alfie Davis +100 (even)
Background: Clay "Cassius" Collard (25-14, 1 NC) returns for another PFL season, bringing fan-friendly fireworks every time. The former UFC brawler and pro boxer has become a staple of PFL with his volume-striking wars. However, Collard finds himself in a must-win spot after losing four of his last five bouts (albeit against top competition like OAM and Raush Manfio). Across from him is Alfie Davis (17-4-1), an English fighter making his PFL debut. Davis fought in Bellator’s lightweight division, where he went 4-2-1. He’s a technical striker with a karate background, known for elusive movement and counter kicks. This fight promises a clash of striking styles – Collard’s high-volume boxing vs. Davis’s point-striking karate – with both men looking to make a statement.

Stylistic Analysis: Collard is an aggressive volume puncher. He’ll walk opponents down behind combinations to the head and body, and he’s not shy about eating a shot to give one. With his pro boxing experience, Clay’s hands are his biggest weapon, and he also has nasty body kicks. Cardio has never been an issue; Collard can throw 100+ strikes a round and keep coming. His weakness is usually grappling (wrestlers can take him down), but Davis is unlikely to shoot for takedowns. Alfie Davis is a stance-switching kickboxer who prefers a measured pace. He often fights long, using side kicks, leg kicks, and straight punches to frustrate foes. Davis isn’t a knockout artist, but he’s crafty at winning decisions by sticking and moving. One concern for Davis is volume – sometimes he doesn’t throw enough and lets opponents steal rounds. That’s a dangerous game against Collard, who will certainly be the busier fighter. Additionally, Davis has never faced someone with Collard’s blend of pressure and boxing in his Bellator run.

Fight Breakdown: From the get-go, look for Collard to press forward and turn up the heat. He’ll target Davis’s body with hooks and kicks, trying to slow the Brit’s movement. Davis will likely stay light on his feet, circling and looking for counter shots as Collard enters. The key factor is whether Davis can keep Collard at the end of his kicks. If Alfie can maintain distance, he could pick Clay apart with kicks to the legs and midsection, and evade the brunt of Collard’s boxing. However, Collard has a knack for dragging opponents into brawls. If he can cut off the cage and flurry, judges often favor his visible aggression. Neither man is known for one-punch knockout power at this weight, so this fight is likely headed to a decision with a high strike count. Collard’s recent skid is concerning, but note the caliber of fighters he faced – all elite PFL lightweights. Davis is a step down in competition compared to OAM or Manfio, and Alfie’s style could actually play into Collard’s strengths (a striking match with someone who won’t threaten takedowns).

Projected Winner: Clay Collard – It’s hard to go against “Cassius” in a pure stand-up fight here. We predict Collard’s pressure and output will overwhelm Alfie Davis over three rounds. Expect Collard to out-land Davis by a significant margin, earning a unanimous decision with his boxing combos and body work. Davis is tough and likely won’t be stopped, but we don’t see him doing enough to sway the judges. From a betting standpoint, Collard at roughly -120 is a pick’em that we like given his experience edge. If you’re looking for a prop, Collard by decision is the most plausible outcome. (If Davis were to win, it would also likely be by decision via point fighting, but we’re confident Collard’s aggressive style will carry the day.)

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Aaron Jeffery vs. Murad Ramazanov – Middleweight Bout Prediction

Odds: Ramazanov -180 (favorite), Jeffery +150 (underdog)
Background: Aaron Jeffery (15-5) and Murad Ramazanov (12-2) meet in a classic clash of styles. Jeffery, from Canada, is a former Bellator contender who holds notable wins like a TKO over Dalton Rosta (the only man to beat Rosta). Jeffery is a rugged fighter known for his mullet and his well-rounded brawling style – he can strike hard and wrestle when needed. Murad Ramazanov is part of the Dagestani invasion into PFL. He went undefeated in ONE Championship and comes in with high expectations. Ramazanov’s specialty is suffocating wrestling and top control, typical of fighters from his region. Both men are making their PFL debuts here, eager to prove themselves in the 185 lb tournament.

Stylistic Analysis: Aaron Jeffery is a gritty pressure fighter. He likes to come forward and engage in close. Offensively, he’s dangerous in the clinch with elbows and knees, and he has knockout power in his hands (8 of his 15 wins by KO/TKO). Jeffery’s takedown defense is solid but not impenetrable – in Bellator, wrestlers like John Salter were able to take him down and submit him. Murad Ramazanov’s game plan is no secret: shoot takedowns, rinse and repeat. He’s an explosive wrestler with a strong double-leg and chain wrestling technique. On the mat, he moves to dominant positions and throws ground strikes to open up submissions or just control the round. Standing, Ramazanov is serviceable but not nearly as comfortable; he’ll throw some punches to set up entries, but he’s not looking to kickbox with Jeffery for long. A key factor will be Jeffery’s defensive wrestling – if he can stuff a few early takedowns and make Ramazanov stand, the fight shifts in Aaron’s favor with his striking and size (Jeffery is a big middleweight).

Fight Breakdown: The first minute or two will tell us everything. Ramazanov will shoot early, no doubt about it. Jeffery needs to sprawl and brawl – defend the takedown and make Murad pay with strikes. If Jeffery keeps it standing, his clinch knees and dirty boxing could really wear on Ramazanov. We’ve seen Dagestani fighters occasionally struggle if Plan A (takedowns) doesn’t work; sometimes their striking defense can be a liability. Jeffery should test that by stuffing shots and then immediately firing uppercuts and hooks. However, Murad has been very effective so far in his career at enforcing his wrestling. If Jeffery is taken down, he must avoid being flat on his back. He’ll need to scramble up quickly or threaten submissions (he has a few chokes in his arsenal). The longer Murad keeps him down, the more the pendulum swings to the Dagestani. Also consider cardio: Jeffery has gone three rounds at a good pace before, while Ramazanov has as well, but mostly in fights he was dictating. A frenetic scramble-heavy fight could test both guys’ gas tanks.

Projected Winner: Murad Ramazanov – We’re picking Ramazanov to get the job done via decision. While Jeffery is a live underdog with knockout potential (and we’ve seen him upset a wrestler before, e.g., Dalton Rosta), Ramazanov’s grappling pedigree is a notch above. Expect Murad to land takedowns in at least two of the three rounds, accumulating control time and neutralizing Jeffery’s offense. On the feet, Jeffery will have moments, but likely not enough sustained time standing to swing two rounds in his favor. A submission by Ramazanov isn’t out of the question if Jeffery gets tired of getting up, but Aaron is tough to finish, so points victory is most likely. Betting pick: Ramazanov -180 is fair, and Ramazanov by decision offers a bit more value. If you believe in Jeffery’s chances, his knockout prop would be the way he wins – but we’ll stick with the relentless wrestler to prevail.

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Khalid Murtazaliev vs. Nick Maximov – Middleweight Alternate Bout Prediction

Odds: Murtazaliev -190 (favorite), Maximov +160 (underdog)
Background: Originally slated as Khalid Murtazaliev vs. Jordan Newman, this middleweight alternate bout now sees Nick Maximov step in to face Murtazaliev. Khalid Murtazaliev (17-3) is a hard-hitting Russian striker perhaps best known for a controversial win over CB Dollaway in the UFC (Murtazaliev bludgeoned Dollaway, but was later flagged for a violation). Since then, he’s put together solid regional wins and enters PFL as an alternate with a point to prove. Nick Maximov (9-3) is a Nate Diaz protégé who had a stint in the UFC recently. Maximov is a grinding wrestler/grappler who went 2-2 in the UFC before being released – he’s known for relentless takedown attempts and a never-quit attitude. This matchup wasn’t originally on the main bracket, but the winner could potentially enter the tournament if another fighter pulls out, so both men have plenty on the line.

Stylistic Analysis: Murtazaliev’s style is striker vs grappler in a nutshell. On the feet, he throws every strike with fight-ending intentions – heavy hooks, overhands, and brutal ground strikes if he gets on top. He’s physically strong and has decent defensive wrestling thanks to his combat sambo background. However, Khalid’s gas tank can wane if pushed into a grappling-heavy fight. Nick Maximov will absolutely push a grappling-heavy fight. Maximov’s stand-up is rudimentary; he’ll throw a jab or two, maybe a leg kick, solely as a path to shoot in. Once he gets a hold of a leg or your hips, he chain-wrestles non-stop. Maximov often makes fights ugly, pressing opponents against the cage, dragging them down to the mat repeatedly. It’s not exciting, but it’s effective when he’s against someone who can’t stuff him consistently. His submission game is solid (BJJ brown belt under the Diaz team), though in the UFC he mostly won by decision through control. This fight is essentially a test: can Maximov get Murtazaliev down consistently, or will Khalid stuff the shots and make Maximov pay with strikes?

Fight Breakdown: We have a clear blueprint from both sides. Maximov will shoot early and often – expect him to dive at legs within the first 20 seconds. Murtazaliev’s mission is to keep the fight standing and unleash his firepower. If Khalid defends the initial takedowns, Nick will likely pull guard or try to roll into a single-leg; he’s relentless but not very tactical in entries. This could lead to moments where Murtazaliev can land heavy hammerfists or elbows even as Maximov clings to a leg. Striking-wise, it’s night and day – Khalid by far the superior striker with knockout power, whereas Maximov’s striking is mostly to close distance. One X-factor: Maximov took this fight on short notice (as Newman’s replacement). His cardio is usually a strength, but without a full camp, shooting 10-15 takedowns could exhaust him. If Maximov’s shots get slower by round 2, Murtazaliev will sprawl and start teeing off. Conversely, if Murtazaliev underestimates Nick and finds himself taken down repeatedly, he could get frustrated and start to gas out, opening the door for Maximov to grind out a decision.

Projected Winner: Khalid Murtazaliev – We’re leaning with the striker to stave off the grappler here. Murtazaliev’s experience and physicality should enable him to defend enough takedowns and force Maximov into a stand-up fight at intervals – and in those moments, Khalid will do serious damage. We predict a late TKO for Murtazaliev, perhaps in the third round after stuffing a tired Maximov and finishing with ground-and-pound. Even if it goes to decision, the judges may favor Murtazaliev’s impactful strikes over Maximov’s stalling control. From a betting angle, Murtazaliev at -190 is a solid favorite to include in parlays. A fun prop to consider is Murtazaliev by KO/TKO, as Maximov’s singular path to victory (wrestling non-stop) becomes much harder if he’s fatigued or eating big shots. Our confidence in Khalid is high – Nick Maximov’s one-dimensional attack is unlikely to succeed against someone of Murtazaliev’s caliber and strength.

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Sergio Cossio vs. Robert Watley – Lightweight Alternate Bout Prediction

Odds: (Pick’em odds projected – Watley slight favorite)
Background: In the lightweight alternate bout, Mexico’s Sergio “Drako” Cossio (27-10-1) faces American veteran Robert “Contact” Watley (15-3). This fight was initially scheduled for April 18, but is now expected to take place on May 1 – regardless, we’ll preview it here as it’s part of the first round matchups. Cossio is a well-traveled fighter who has competed across various regional circuits, amassing a lot of experience and finishes. Watley is a former Cage Fury FC champion who previously competed in the 2018 PFL season. In that 2018 run, Watley went 1-2, including a win over Thiago Tavares via TKO (leg kicks) and a loss to UFC vet Will Brooks. After some years away from the PFL, Watley returns, eager to show he’s still a threat at 36 years old. The winner of this bout could step in as an injury replacement in the lightweight bracket, so the stakes are high for these two lesser-known fighters.

Stylistic Analysis: Sergio Cossio is an aggressive finisher. With 27 wins, he has a mix of knockouts and submissions on his record, suggesting well-rounded skills. He’s a pressure fighter who isn’t afraid to brawl or dive on a guillotine if the opportunity arises. Cossio’s defense can be a bit lax – in pursuing finishes, he’s been caught and has 10 losses. Watley, on the other hand, is more of a technical fighter. He has a karate stance and loves leg kicks (as mentioned, he stopped a fight with them). Watley’s striking is fundamentally sound and he moves well. He also has decent wrestling – not world-class, but enough to stuff many takedowns and even mix in his own. In terms of experience against higher competition, Watley has the edge (having fought in PFL before and holding wins over some UFC veterans). Cossio has fought plenty, but much of it in smaller promotions. Watley’s style is typically to fight smart and pick opponents apart rather than go guns blazing.

Fight Breakdown: We suspect this fight will start fast – Cossio will likely come out swinging hard or looking to clinch and throw knees. Watley will need to weather the early storm and establish his range. If Robert can pump a jab and chew up Cossio’s lead leg with kicks, he’ll slow down the Mexican’s attack. Cossio’s path to victory might be landing a big overhand or jumping on a submission scramble if Watley slips. But Watley has historically been quite composed; he’s not the type to get drawn into a wild slugfest unless forced. Look for Watley to use lateral movement and counter-strike, making Cossio miss. If Cossio has a wrestling element, he might try it, but Watley’s takedown defense is serviceable and he’s comfortable clinching and reversing position. As the fight progresses, the more technical Watley should begin pulling ahead. Cossio has been to decision many times, but in those fights he often slowed in later rounds as his finish attempts failed.

Projected Winner: Robert Watley – We’ll go with the savvy veteran to get it done. Watley’s kick-heavy striking and patience should allow him to outpoint Cossio over three rounds. A late finish isn’t out of the question if leg kicks take a toll, but the likely result is Watley by decision, using superior technique and experience to impress the judges. For bettors, if this fight is lined close to evens, Watley is worth a look given he’s the more proven fighter against quality opposition. Cossio’s wild style gives him a puncher’s chance, but Watley’s tactical approach makes him the safer pick. This may not be the most high-profile bout, but it could quietly be an interesting duel of Cossio’s aggression vs Watley’s precision – we’ll side with precision.

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Best Three-Leg Parlay for PFL April 18, 2025

For those looking to maximize value on a few confident picks, we’ve assembled a three-leg parlay from our predictions:

Josh Silveira to Win – Silveira’s dominant wrestling should carry him to victory over Mike Shipman. He’s one of the safer picks on the card, and we expect him to get his hand raised without much trouble.
Sadibou Sy to Win – The former PFL champ’s experience and striking acumen make him a strong bet to outpoint Dalton Rosta. Sy’s slight favorite odds add value to our parlay while still being a pick we’re quite confident in.
Impa Kasanganay to Win – The main event favorite rounds out the parlay. Kasanganay’s well-rounded skill set and championship mettle should be enough to overcome Fabian Edwards. We like him to get it done, likely by decision.

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