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MLB Game Preview: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction - September 12, 2024

Introduction

The New York Yankees (84-62) will host the Boston Red Sox (74-72) at Yankee Stadium on September 12, 2024, in a crucial matchup with significant playoff implications. The Yankees are currently leading the AL East but are just 1.5 games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles. On the other side, the Red Sox are fighting to keep their slim postseason hopes alive. Despite being 10 games back in the division, a strong finish could keep Boston in the wild-card hunt.

This matchup is always intense given the historical rivalry between these two teams. With the Yankees looking to solidify their division lead and the Red Sox aiming to make a late-season push, this game promises to be highly competitive. 

 

Odds Table

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
Boston Red Sox (74-72)	+140	+1.5 (-150)	O 8.5 (-130)
New York Yankees (84-62)	-165	-1.5 (+125)	U 8.5 (+110)

Interpretation: The Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -165, reflecting their superior record and home-field advantage. The run line of -1.5 (+125) indicates confidence in a multi-run victory for New York, while the total is set at 8.5, suggesting a potentially high-scoring game. Given the offensive firepower on both sides and the starting pitchers, the over is the favored play, with the odds set at -130.

Team Analysis

New York Yankees

The Yankees have been one of the most consistent teams in baseball this season, particularly at home where they hold a 39-32 record. Aaron Judge has been nothing short of spectacular, leading the league with 51 home runs and 126 RBIs while maintaining a .320 batting average. Judge’s ability to change the game with one swing makes him the key player in the Yankees’ lineup.

Nestor Cortes, the scheduled starter, has had a solid season with a 9-10 record and a 3.97 ERA. However, he has been susceptible to the long ball, giving up 23 home runs in 163.1 innings. Cortes will need to be careful against a Boston lineup that has several power threats. The Yankees' bullpen has been reliable, but the starters will need to provide length to keep the relievers fresh down the stretch.

Offensively, the Yankees are among the best in the league, ranking first in home runs (215) and fourth in runs scored (730). Their ability to score in bunches has been a hallmark of their success, especially in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. However, their reliance on the home run can be a double-edged sword, as they can struggle when the ball isn’t leaving the park.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have had an up-and-down season, reflected in their 74-72 record. On the road, they have been competitive, with a 39-32 mark away from Fenway Park. Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers have led the charge offensively, with Devers providing both power and consistency. Devers has hit 28 home runs and driven in 81 runs, while Duran has maintained a .288 batting average, providing speed and versatility at the top of the lineup.

Cooper Criswell will start for the Red Sox, bringing a 6-4 record with a 4.11 ERA into the game. Criswell has been serviceable but has shown vulnerability against stronger lineups. His 1.34 WHIP indicates that he allows a fair number of baserunners, which could be problematic against a Yankees team that capitalizes on scoring opportunities. Criswell will need to keep the ball down and avoid giving up the long ball to have any chance of success.

The Red Sox bullpen has been inconsistent, often struggling to hold leads late in games. This weakness could be exposed against a Yankees lineup that is known for its late-game heroics. To win, Boston will need a strong performance from Criswell and timely hitting from their offense, particularly in the later innings.

Starting Pitcher Analysis

New York Yankees - Nestor Cortes (LHP)

Nestor Cortes has been a key piece of the Yankees’ rotation, providing stability with his crafty left-handed pitching. His 9-10 record might not stand out, but his 3.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 163.1 innings reflect his effectiveness. Cortes relies on a mix of pitches, including a deceptive fastball and a sweeping slider, to keep hitters off balance.

One area of concern for Cortes has been his propensity to give up home runs, with 23 allowed this season. In a park like Yankee Stadium, where the ball can fly out, this could be an issue against a Red Sox lineup that features several power hitters. Cortes will need to focus on pitch location and mixing speeds to keep the Boston hitters off balance.

Cortes' ability to navigate through the middle of Boston’s lineup, particularly against Devers and O’Neill, will be critical. If he can keep those key hitters in check, the Yankees should be in a strong position to win. However, any mistakes over the plate could lead to quick runs for the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox - Cooper Criswell (RHP)

Cooper Criswell has had an up-and-down season, with a 6-4 record and a 4.11 ERA. While Criswell has shown flashes of potential, he has struggled with consistency, particularly against stronger lineups. His 1.34 WHIP suggests that he allows too many baserunners, which could spell trouble against a Yankees team that excels at hitting with runners in scoring position.

Criswell’s pitch arsenal includes a fastball, slider, and changeup, but his command of these pitches has been inconsistent. When he’s on, Criswell can be effective, but his tendency to leave pitches over the plate has resulted in 9 home runs allowed in 92 innings. Facing a powerful Yankees lineup, Criswell will need to be precise with his pitch location to avoid giving up big innings.

The Red Sox will be looking for Criswell to go deep into the game to avoid overtaxing their bullpen, which has been unreliable at times. If Criswell can keep the game close, the Red Sox have a chance, but he will need to be at his best to outduel Cortes and the Yankees.

Recent Performance

New York Yankees

Date	Opponent	Result
9/11/24	vs KC	W 4-3 F/11
9/10/24	vs KC	L 5-0
9/9/24	vs KC	W 10-4
9/8/24	@ CHC	L 2-1
9/7/24	@ CHC	W 2-0

The Yankees are 3-2 in their last five games, a stretch that has seen them win some close contests while also suffering a shutout loss. Their offense has been up and down, with a blowout win over Kansas City followed by a 5-0 loss the next day. This inconsistency has been a theme for the Yankees, but their ability to win close games, as evidenced by their extra-inning win against the Royals, remains a positive.

Boston Red Sox

Date	Opponent	Result
9/11/24	vs BAL	W 5-3 F/10
9/10/24	vs BAL	L 5-3
9/9/24	vs BAL	W 12-3
9/8/24	vs CHW	L 7-2
9/7/24	vs CHW	W 7-5

The Red Sox have gone 3-2 in their last five games, including a thrilling extra-inning win over Baltimore. Their offense has been potent, scoring 12 runs in one game against the Orioles, but has also shown vulnerability, as seen in their 7-2 loss to the White Sox. Consistency has been an issue, but when the Red Sox are clicking, they can score runs in bunches.

Head-to-Head Comparison

The Yankees and Red Sox have faced off nine times this season, with Boston holding a narrow 5-4 edge in the season series. The games have been tightly contested, with several matchups decided by late-game heroics. The Yankees have won the last two games at Yankee Stadium, including a 14-4 rout in their most recent meeting, which saw their offense explode for multiple home runs.

Historically, these teams have played each other tough, regardless of their records. The Yankees have relied on their power, while the Red Sox have used a more balanced approach. With both teams still in the hunt for playoff positioning, this game is expected to be another intense battle, likely with plenty of runs scored.

The Yankees’ home-field advantage and recent success against Boston at Yankee Stadium give them a slight edge, but the Red Sox have proven they can compete, especially when their offense is firing on all cylinders. Expect this game to be another closely contested matchup in a storied rivalry.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

New York Yankees

The Yankees have a 72-74 ATS record this season, showing some difficulty in covering the spread despite their strong overall record. At home, they are 35-36 ATS, reflecting the challenges they’ve faced in winning by large margins. As favorites, their record is 58-63 ATS, suggesting that while they often win, they do not always cover the run line.

Recently, the Yankees have covered the run line in 2 of their last 5 games, showing some inconsistency. However, their ability to win close games, especially at home, makes them a team to watch closely when considering the spread. Given their powerful offense and Cortes’ solid pitching, they have a good chance to cover in this matchup, particularly if they can get to Criswell early.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have a 70-76 ATS record this season, which is similar to the Yankees. On the road, they are 36-35 ATS, indicating their ability to cover the spread away from Fenway Park. As underdogs, the Red Sox have a 41-41 ATS record, showing they can keep games close even when not favored.

In their last 10 games, the Red Sox are 5-5 ATS, reflecting their inconsistent play. However, their recent offensive outbursts suggest they could cover the spread in a high-scoring game, especially if Criswell can keep the game within reach. With both teams fighting for playoff positioning, the Red Sox will be motivated to stay competitive in this matchup.

Betting Stats and Trends

New York Yankees

• The Yankees are 7-3 SU in their last 10 home games.
• The total has gone over in 4 of the Yankees’ last 6 games.
• New York is 3-2 SU in their last 5 games against Boston.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in 2 of their last 5 games.
• New York is 9-5 SU in day games this season.

Boston Red Sox

• The Red Sox are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games.
• The total has gone over in 4 of Boston's last 5 games.
• Boston is 5-4 SU in their last 9 games against the Yankees.
• The Red Sox are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games.
• Boston has hit the over in 6 of their last 8 road games.

Prediction