White Sox vs Astros Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 7 (10/7): MLB

White Sox vs Astros Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 7 (10/7): MLB

Credit: photo by Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 4:07 p.m. EST
White Sox money line +113
White Sox run line +1.5 (-175)
Astros money line -135
Astros run line -1.5 (+150)
Over / under 8 (+100)

 

Key stats
  White Sox Astros
Record 93-68 95-67
Road / home record 40-41 51-30
Last 10 record 7-3 4-6
Streak 1L 2W
Over / under record 70-81-10 86-69-7
Runs / game 4.93 5.33
Runs allowed / game 3.93 4.06

 

Preview

With all the wildcard games settles and matchups set up we finally get game one of the ALDS. This will be a best of 5 series between the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros. Houston got the upper hand in their meetings with the White Sox during the regular season going 5-2 in those games. This will be a matchup between two of the best offensive teams in the league as both boast lineups that are dangerous up and down the order. They both also have high quality arms to rely on out of the bullpen.

The White Sox enter this best of 5 series going 7-3 in their last 10 games to end the season, some good form. They have been on cruise control for most of the second half as they were the only team with a winning record in their divsion this year. They will go with Lance Lynn to get things started tonight as he has been great all season. They could be without a key player in Jose Abreu as he battles flu like symptoms (negative for covid-19), which could be an important missing piece as the White Sox are on the younger and inexperienced side.

The Astros enter this game going 4-6 in their last 10 games to close things out in the regular season. The Astros were great this season as they led the league in total runs scored and as a team had one of the lowest strikeout rates at the plate. This is an experienced team who puts the ball in play and knows what it takes to win a series. They will roll out Lance McCullers tonight who has had great success against this White Sox team in his career.

 

Pitching matchup

White Sox

Lance Lynn (11-6, 2.69 ERA) will be on the mound for the White Sox tonight when they take on the Astros. Lynn enters the postseason with a record of 5-4 with a 4.80 (1.60 WHIP) ERA in 26 appearances and 7 starts. Lynn enters this game with a 1.07 WHIP and 3.98 XFIP. This season he carries a 27.3% strikeout rate along with a 7% walk rate. He faced off once this season against this Houston squad and didn't fair too well in the matchup, going 4 innings while allowing 6 earned runs, he has histrocially struggled a bit when throwing in Houston. Lynn has been great this season for the White Sox as he has the stuff to strike guys out, when he does get hit he is able to keep hitters off balance and induce softer contact. He has had some struggles in the postseason as well as pitching in Houston in his career, he will look to break those trends tonight in a matchup with an experienced Astros team that puts the ball in play.

Astros

Lance McCullers Jr. (13-5, 3.16 ERA) will take the bump for the Astros tonight when they host the White Sox. He enters the postseason with a record of 1-2 with a 3.28 ERA (1.07 WHIP) in 14 appearances and 7 starts. McCullers enter this game with a 1.22 WHIP and 3.28 XFIP. This season he carries a 27.7% strikeout rate along with a high 10.7% walk rate. McCullers faced off against this White Sox team twice this season, going 13 innings, allowing 3 earned runs, while striking out 14 hitters. He has historically been very good against the White Sox in his career, going 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA. McCullers as been great for Houston this year, besides the the high walk rate he has been able to strike guys out at a high clip while also keeping the ball on the ground evidenced by his 57.3% groundball rate. He has a tough matchup tonight against a younger and less experienced White Sox team that could be without a key player in Jose Abreu.

Prediction

I'll go with the more experienced team in the Astros in game 1 of this series as Lynn has struggled against the Astros in Houston and has also struggled a bit in the postseason. The White Sox have been in cruise control and it could take a game or 2 for them to wake up a bit. 

PICK: Astros ML  (-135)

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