Walker Buehler MLB Player Prop Bet vs Padres Game 3 10/8
- Lm Tipster
- Oct 8, 2024, 5:00:10 AM
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MLB Player Prop Analysis: Walker Buehler Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed vs San Diego Padres - October 8, 2024
The Los Angeles Dodgers face the San Diego Padres in Game 3 of the NLDS, with the series tied 1-1. As Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Dodgers, the player prop in focus is Buehler allowing over 4.5 hits. Given his recent struggles and San Diego's potent offense, this line offers strong potential. Here's why Buehler is projected to give up more or less than 4.5 hits in this critical playoff game.
Game Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64) | +110 | +1.5 (-175) | Over 7.5 (-115) |
| San Diego Padres (93-69) | -150 | -1.5 (+145) | Under 7.5 (-105) |
The Padres enter as -150 favorites, while the Dodgers are listed at +110. The over/under is set at 7.5, reflecting the expectation of a competitive game. With Buehler's struggles this season, the prop line for him to allow over 4.5 hits presents a valuable opportunity.
Team Analysis
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers had an impressive regular season with a 98-64 record, but they will need a strong performance from Buehler in Game 3 to take the lead in the series. Despite their record, Buehler has struggled, finishing the season with a 5.38 ERA and allowing 89 hits over 75.1 innings pitched. The Dodgers' offense, led by Shohei Ohtani, has been consistent, but Buehler’s ability to limit hits will be key to their success in this game.
San Diego Padres
The Padres come into this game with a 93-69 record and a strong offensive lineup, led by Manny Machado and Luis Arraez. San Diego’s lineup has been effective at getting on base and generating hits, ranking near the top in team batting average. Buehler’s struggles, particularly in allowing contact, make this a favorable matchup for the Padres, who will look to take advantage at home.
Starting Pitcher Analysis
Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Walker Buehler’s 2024 season has been a disappointment, with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He has struggled with command and has been prone to allowing hits in bunches. Over his last five starts, Buehler has allowed 27 hits in 26.1 innings, which includes multiple outings where he gave up five or more hits.
In his last start on September 26 against San Diego, Buehler allowed five hits over five innings. Given the Padres' offensive depth and Buehler's recent form, it's reasonable to expect San Diego to put the ball in play and exceed the 4.5 hits line.
Michael King (San Diego Padres)
Michael King will start for the Padres, but the focus of this analysis is on Buehler’s ability to limit hits. King has been solid this postseason, but the real pressure will be on Buehler to keep San Diego’s hitters off the bases.
Recent Performance
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have won four of their last five games, but Buehler’s recent starts have been a cause for concern. In his last outing, he allowed five hits and one earned run over five innings against the Padres. In September alone, Buehler allowed 27 hits across five starts, averaging over five hits per game. With his lack of consistency, opposing lineups have been able to make consistent contact against him.
San Diego Padres
The Padres have been 3-2 in their last five games, including a 10-2 victory over the Dodgers in Game 2. Their offense has been clicking, and with players like Machado and Arraez leading the charge, San Diego has the lineup to pressure Buehler early. The Padres have shown the ability to capitalize on pitchers who struggle with command, and they’ll be looking to jump on Buehler’s mistakes.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Buehler has faced the Padres multiple times this season, with mixed results. In his last start against them, Buehler allowed five hits, a line he has often exceeded throughout the season. San Diego’s offense has been a tough matchup for Buehler, as they rank highly in contact rate and batting average.
In three starts against the Padres this season, Buehler has given up an average of 5.3 hits per game. With San Diego’s ability to put the ball in play and Buehler’s tendency to allow baserunners, this prop line of 4.5 hits offers solid value.
Against the Spread (ATS) Records
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are 86-76 against the spread (ATS) this season, but their ATS performance has been less reliable when Buehler is on the mound. Despite their success overall, Buehler’s struggles have made it difficult for the Dodgers to consistently cover spreads, particularly on the road.
San Diego Padres
The Padres are 88-74 ATS this season, and they’ve been strong at home, covering the spread in 55% of their games at Petco Park. With their offense in good form and Buehler’s issues with hits allowed, the Padres are well-positioned to capitalize on this matchup.
Betting Stats and Trends
- Walker Buehler hits allowed: Buehler has allowed five or more hits in four of his last five starts, with an average of 5.4 hits allowed per game in September.
- Padres' offense: San Diego ranks in the top 10 in team batting average and contact rate, making them a strong candidate to exceed the hits prop against Buehler.
- Dodgers' defense: Los Angeles has been solid defensively, but Buehler’s struggles with command have led to an increased number of hits allowed.
- Padres at home: San Diego has been particularly effective at home this season, with a 45-36 record at Petco Park.
Prediction
Walker Buehler has struggled with hits allowed throughout the 2024 season, and his recent form suggests he will have difficulty keeping the Padres’ hitters in check. With San Diego’s offense firing on all cylinders and Buehler allowing an average of over five hits per game in recent outings, the over 4.5 hits prop is a strong play in this matchup. San Diego’s ability to put the ball in play and take advantage of Buehler’s command issues makes this prop bet one of the best options for Game 3.
Pick: The player prop to target is Walker Buehler to allow over 4.5 hits. His recent track record and the Padres’ offensive prowess make this a solid value play in Game 3 of the NLDS.
