Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks (Mar 31, 2025)

The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox square off in an AL Central clash on Monday at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch is slated for 2:10 PM ET. The Twins enter as defending division champions and are favored to contend again, while the White Sox are looking to rebound from a dismal 2024. These teams haven’t met since last season when Minnesota went 11-8 against Chicago. Below, we break down the odds and key factors for this matchup before making a Twins vs White Sox prediction.

Latest Odds: Moneyline, Run Line, Total

Sportsbook	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
FanDuel	MIN -165, CWS +140	MIN -1.5 (+100), CWS +1.5 (-120)	8.5 (O -110, U -110)
DraftKings	MIN -160, CWS +135	MIN -1.5 (+105), CWS +1.5 (-125)	8.5 (O -112, U -108)
BetMGM	MIN -170, CWS +145	MIN -1.5 (+105), CWS +1.5 (-125)	8.5 (O -115, U -105)
Caesars	MIN -165, CWS +140	MIN -1.5 (+100), CWS +1.5 (-120)	8.5 (O -110, U -110)

Odds as of March 30, 2025.

Starting Pitching Matchup

Twins: RHP Chris Paddack – Paddack makes his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022. The 29-year-old righty looked solid in spring training and will try to recapture his early-career form from San Diego. In 2021, his last full season, Paddack posted a 5.07 ERA, but the Twins are optimistic he can be a mid-rotation stabilizer if healthy. Expect Minnesota to monitor his pitch count closely in this debut.

White Sox: LHP Martín Pérez – Chicago signed the veteran Pérez to a one-year deal this offseason to eat innings for a rebuilding staff. The 33-year-old lefty was 10-12 with a 4.98 ERA for Texas in 2024, a drop-off from his All-Star 2022 campaign. Pérez relies on movement and changing speeds rather than velocity, and he’ll aim to keep the Twins’ right-handed power hitters off balance. Control can be an issue for Pérez at times, especially early in the season.

Minnesota Outlook

Minnesota comes into this series with high expectations. Oddsmakers pegged the Twins as division favorites in 2025, and they backed it up by scoring 18 runs in their opening three games (going 2-1). Star shortstop Carlos Correa and outfielder Byron Buxton lead a deep lineup that can score in bunches. Buxton’s health is always a storyline – he’s currently healthy and already homered in the first series. The Twins pitching staff also looks strong on paper, though Paddack is something of a wild card coming off a long layoff.

The Twins have dominated this head-to-head series in recent years, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings with Chicago. One angle to watch: Minnesota relievers combined for 9 scoreless innings in the opening series, showing that the bullpen could be a real strength. If Paddack can deliver even five decent frames, Minnesota likes its chances with the bullpen shortening the game.

Chicago Outlook

The White Sox are in reset mode after finishing 61-101 last season. They’ve brought in new manager Charlie Montoyo to help develop their young talent. Offensively, Chicago still has some thump with Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez anchoring the heart of the order. Robert is coming off a 38-homer campaign and remains the biggest threat to Minnesota’s pitching in this lineup. However, consistent production around him is a concern — Chicago hit just .230 as a team in 2024.

Chicago’s pitching depth is thin, and they are leaning on stopgaps like Pérez in the rotation. The bullpen was taxed in an 0-3 opening series sweep in Houston, which saw Sox pitchers allow 19 runs. Also worth noting: The White Sox opened the season with the lowest projected win total of any AL team, reflecting the low external expectations. That said, in a home opener scenario, they’ll be eager to play spoiler and notch an upset behind a crafty outing from Pérez and a couple of big swings from their sluggers.

Prediction and Best Bet

Prediction: Twins 5, White Sox 2. Minnesota’s advantages in both lineup depth and bullpen strength should carry the day. Paddack may have some rust, but the Twins can turn to a reliable relief corps by the middle innings. On the other side, Chicago’s offense beyond Luis Robert is too inconsistent to trust. Look for the Twins to gradually pull away and win comfortably.

Best Bet: Twins -1.5 Run Line. With Minnesota favored around -165 on the moneyline, the value lies on the run line at plus odds. The Twins have the firepower to win by multiple runs, and backing the superior team to cover -1.5 is a solid play given the mismatch on paper.

Top Player Prop Bets

• Byron Buxton – Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105): Buxton’s elite power and speed combo makes him a great bet to rack up bases. He’s 3-for-7 lifetime off Pérez and should see plenty of RBI chances.
• Luis Robert Jr. – Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120): Even in a losing effort, Robert can produce. He had two hits in Chicago’s last game and is the best bet among White Sox hitters to tag Paddack or the bullpen for extra bases.
• Carlos Correa – Over 0.5 Runs (-110): Hitting in the No. 3 spot, Correa stands a good chance to score at least once if the Twins offense meets expectations. He reached base 5 times in the first series and should be driven in by those batting behind him.

Minnesota vs Chicago Game FAQ

What time is the Twins vs White Sox game and where is it played?

It starts at 2:10 PM ET on March 31, 2025, and will be held at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois.

Who are the starting pitchers for Minnesota and Chicago?

The Twins will start right-hander Chris Paddack, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, and the White Sox will start veteran lefty Martín Pérez in their home opener.

What are the odds for Twins vs White Sox?

The Twins are sizable favorites. Minnesota’s moneyline is around -165, while Chicago is about +140 as a home underdog. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, indicating moderate scoring expectations.

Who is predicted to win the game?

We predict the Twins will win by a score of 5-2. Minnesota’s lineup and bullpen advantages make them the clear pick, and we suggest taking the Twins on the -1.5 run line for better betting value.