Game Summary

The Cincinnati Reds (62-67) are set to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates (61-67) in the third game of their weekend series at PNC Park in Pittsburgh on August 24, 2024. With the Pirates holding a 2-0 series lead, the Reds find themselves in a critical position to avoid a sweep. The Reds are currently fourth in the NL Central, while the Pirates sit in fifth place. Both teams have been struggling recently, with Cincinnati going 4-6 in their last ten games and Pittsburgh also at 5-5.

Historically, this matchup has been competitive, but the Pirates have taken control this season, winning six of the previous eight contests. In their last meeting on August 23, the Pirates edged the Reds 6-5, showcasing their ability to capitalize on offensive opportunities. The Reds' offense ranks 23rd in the league in runs scored, while the Pirates are slightly better, sitting at 14th. The Reds are particularly weak in close games, with a dismal 10-22 record in one-run games this season.

Key performers for the Pirates include shortstop Oneil Cruz, who boasts a solid .263 batting average with 18 home runs and 63 RBIs. For the Reds, outfielder Elly De La Cruz leads the team with a .260 batting average, 22 home runs, and 79 RBIs. Cincinnati’s recent struggles on the mound have seen them post a 6.31 ERA over the last ten games, contributing to their negative run differential of -23 in that stretch.

As the game approaches, both teams are dealing with significant injuries. The Pirates are without key players like Andrew McCutchen and Ke'Bryan Hayes, while the Reds are missing several starters, including Hunter Greene and Jake Fraley. These injuries could impact the effectiveness of both lineups, making this a pivotal game for both teams to gain momentum heading into the final stretch of the season.

Player Prop Odds

For TJ Friedl's performance in this matchup, the player prop odds are as follows:

• Batter Stolen Bases: Over 0.5 at +400.0

Player Analysis

TJ Friedl is an emerging talent for the Reds, known for his speed and ability to make impactful plays in the outfield. This season, he has been showing promise, with a batting average hovering around .240. Friedl's speed on the base paths is particularly noteworthy, making him a candidate for stolen bases.

In terms of recent performance, Friedl has been getting on base more frequently. His on-base percentage is improving, and he has stolen bases in critical moments. His ability to read pitchers and take calculated risks on the base paths adds depth to his game, making him a player to watch in this matchup.

Despite his current stats, Friedl has the potential to capitalize on the Pirates' pitching weaknesses. The Pirates have had difficulties controlling the running game, especially with their current bullpen struggles. This could create opportunities for Friedl to swipe bases if he gets on base.

Opposing Analysis

The Pirates' starting pitcher for this game, Jake Woodford, has struggled significantly this season with a 0-5 record and a 6.67 ERA. Woodford's inconsistency on the mound has led to a higher number of walks and hits allowed, which could benefit Friedl if he can reach base. The Pirates' bullpen has also shown vulnerabilities, particularly in late-game situations, which might lead to additional opportunities for base stealing.

Given the Reds' aggressive base-running style, Friedl's chances of stealing bases are heightened when facing a pitcher who struggles with control. If Woodford cannot keep runners close and allows Friedl to get a good lead, he could very well exploit the situation.

Prop Analysis

Friedl’s prop for over 0.5 stolen bases at +400 presents intriguing value. Given his speed and the Pirates' recent struggles with base runners, there is a strong chance he could capitalize on a mistake by the pitcher or catcher. The fact that he has been getting on base more consistently also supports this prop. If Friedl reaches base, he will likely look to steal, especially against a pitcher like Woodford who may not be adept at holding runners.

Starting Pitching Summary - Reds

Julian Aguiar is making his first start of the season for the Reds, entering the game with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. His ability to keep runners off base will be crucial, as the Reds need to limit the Pirates' scoring opportunities. If Aguiar can pitch effectively, it might allow Friedl the chance to be more aggressive on the base paths.

Starting Pitching Summary - Pirates

Jake Woodford has not had the season he hoped for, with a 0-5 record and a 6.67 ERA. His struggles on the mound could lead to a higher number of pitches, giving Reds batters more opportunities to get on base and potentially for Friedl to steal. The Reds will need to capitalize on Woodford's weaknesses if they want to turn their fortunes around against the Pirates.

Bullpen Summary - Reds

The Reds' bullpen has been inconsistent, posting a team ERA of 3.90. If Aguiar can go deep into the game, it would relieve some pressure off the bullpen. However, if the Pirates can score early, the Reds may need to rely on their bullpen to hold the lead, which has been shaky at times.

Bullpen Summary - Pirates

The Pirates have struggled with their bullpen, which has a collective ERA of 4.07. Their inability to close out games could be a factor if the Reds manage to keep the score close. Friedl could take advantage of any errors or lapses in focus from the Pirates, potentially leading to stolen base opportunities.

Team Previews

The Reds have been inconsistent this season, ranking in the lower half in most offensive categories. However, they do have a few standout players, including Friedl, who can change the game with their speed. The team needs to find a way to capitalize on their scoring opportunities and minimize mistakes on the field.

On the other hand, the Pirates have shown flashes of success, but their record indicates they are still struggling to find consistency. Their lineup has been bolstered by players like Oneil Cruz, but they will need to figure out how to maintain leads, especially with the Reds looking to fight back in this series.

Team Injuries

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