Tigers vs Pirates Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 7 (9/7): MLB

Tigers vs Pirates Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 7 (9/7): MLB

Credit: photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Time 6:35 p.m. EST
Tigers money line +110
Tigers run line +1.5 (-196)
Pirates money line -147
Pirates run line -1.5 (+141)
Over / under 8.5 (-116)


Key stats
  Tigers Pirates
Record 65-74 49-89
Road / home record 30-39 29-38
Last 10 record 3-7 2-8
Streak 1L 1W
Over / under record 62-73-4 66-65-7
Runs / game 4.37 3.64
Runs allowed / game 4.80 5.17



Tonight the Tigers will take on the Pirates for game 2 of their 3 game series. The Pirates were able to take game 1 of this series lastnight 6-3.  Both teams enter this game firmly out of the playoff hunt.  The Tigers have been better than most expected as their veterans and young talent have mixed nicely this year.  The Pirates on the other hand have just been bad.  The pitching has been abysmal along with their hitting.  Both teams will look to get something going to end the season.

Pitching matchup


Wily Peralta (3-3, 3.68 ERA) will be on the mound when the Tigers take on the Pirates.  He enters this game with a 1.26 WHIP and 5.03 XFIP.  Peralta has a low 15.3% strikeout rate and high 8.4% walk rate.  Peralta has been decent this year but has been a candidate for some regression.  He allows too much contact and walks hitters at too high of a clip.  He will be taking on a weak Pirates offense but he could still have his hands full in this one.   


Dillon Peters (0-2, 3.07 ERA) looks to be the starting pitcher for the Pirates at the time of writing this.  He enters this game with a 1.23 WHIP and 5.31 XFIP.  He carries a low 15.9% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate in his limited sample this year. In his limited innings this year the lefty has 14.2 innings, allowing 5 ER's, 4 BB's, and 10 strikeouts in 3 starts.  He has allowed power to right handed bats at a high clip, evidenced by his 6 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 homerun allowed in that span.  The Tigers are project to send out a right handed heavy lineup today which could cause some problems for Peters.   


We have a story of two bad pitchers facing off against some weaker offenses. While Peralta is due for some regression he has had succes against left handed bats this year, allowing a .165 ISO and .259 wOBA, while walking only 5.3% in the split. This Pirates team is projected to throw out 5-6 left handed bats against Peralta so I will lean on the numbers in that matchup.  I'll target the better offense in this one backed by the better splits Peralta has against left handed bats. 

PICK: Tigers ML (+110)

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