Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 15 (9/15): MLB

Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 15 (9/15): MLB

Credit: photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 6:35 p.m. EST
Reds money line -145
Reds run line -1.5 (+110)
Pirates money line +122
Pirates run line +1.5 (-130)
Over / under 9 (-105)

 

Key stats
  Reds Pirates
Record 75-70 53-91
Road / home record 37-37 33-40
Last 10 record 3-7 5-5
Streak 3L 1W
Over / under record 73-66-6 68-69-7
Runs / game 4.87 3.69
Runs allowed / game 4.68 5.13

 

Preview

Tonight we have the Reds taking on the Pirates.  This will be the 2nd game in this 3 game series, the Pirates took the first game lastnight winning 6-5. The Reds enter this one struggling a bit going 3-7 in their last 10 games.  They have plenty of time to turn things around though as they sit only 0.5 games back of an NL wildcard spot.  They'll look to get back on track here in a plus matchup against the Pirates.  The Pirates enter this one with no hopes for the playoffs as their pitching and hitting has been abysmal this year.  They have been decent recently though, going 5-5 in their last 10 games.  They'll look to play spoiler tonight and give their divisional foes a tough challenege.  

Pitching matchup

Reds

Vladimir Gutierrez (9-6, 4.05 ERA) will be on the mound for the Reds when they take on the Pirates. Gutierrez comes into this game with a 1.30 WHIP and 5.20 XFIP.  This season he carries a 19% strikeout rate along with an 8.5% walk rate.  Gutierrez has been medicore this year and is due to regress some.  Left handed hitters have been able to get to him both in the contact and power department, the Pirates will most likely roll out 4-5 left handed hitters today.  He has had better success against right handed hitters, inducing poor contact and finding more punch outs as well.  If Gutierrez can control the strikezone and keep the left handed hitters of the Pirates at bay he can find success tonight.

Pirates

Mitch Keller (4-11, 6.29 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Pirates when they take on the visiting Reds.  Keller comes into this game with an ugly 1.77 WHIP and 4.94 XFIP.  This season he boasts a 21.1% strikeout rate along with a high 10% walk rate.  Keller has been abysmal once again this year, he's been hit hard and has walked too many hitters to be succesful.  Keller does have some strikeout upside but it mainly comes in same handed matchups as his strikeout percentage drops to a weak 15% against left handed hitters, his walk rate also increases to 11.5% in the split.  The Reds should be rolling out 4-5 left handed hitters tonight.  Mitch Keller will have his hands full once again when he takes on the tonight.

Prediction

I see the bats from both teams being able to produce some runs against mediocre pitchers.  We saw some runs from these teams last night and I expect more of the same here again.

PICK: Over 9 (-105)

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