Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 7 (10/7): MLB

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 7 (10/7): MLB

Credit: photo by Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Time 4:07 p.m. EST
Red Sox money line +130
Red Sox run line +1.5 (-150)
Rays money line -155
Rays run line -1.5 (+130)
Over / under 8 (+100)


Key stats
  Red Sox Rays
Record 93-70 100-62
Road / home record 43-38 52-29
Last 10 record 5-5 7-3
Streak 4W 1L
Over / under record 74-85-4 83-71-8
Runs / game 5.12 5.29
Runs allowed / game 4.61 4.02



Tonight both ALDS series are underway as both wildcard games have been played. We have game 1 tonight between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays had the upper hand during the regular season against the Red Sox with a record of 11-8 in the 19 game series. Both teams boast quality lineups up and down the order while the Rays have the upper hand when it comes to pitching.

The Red Sox will have E-Rod on the mound tonight as he has improved in the second half of the season and has been very good. The Red Sox should come into this game with some momentum and confidence after beating up on the Yankees in the wildcard. This is an experienced team that knows how to win on the road in the playoffs. 

The Rays will put there rookie left hander on the mound tonight in Shane McClanahan. The Rays had one aspect of their game holding them back and that was the inability to produce against left handed pitching, they have corrected that as they have dropped their strikeout right significantly in the split. They do have trouble making contact in the split. The Rays enter the postseason with one of the best bullpens out of the teams still alive and they will not be afraid to go to it early if they need to.


Pitching matchup

Red Sox

Eduardo Rodriguez (13-8, 4.74 ERA) will be on the mound for the Red Sox for game 1 against the Rays. In the post season he sports a record of 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA in 10 innings of work. Rodriguez enters this game with a 1.39 WHIP and 3.68 XFIP. This season he carries a 27% strikeout rate along with a 7% walk rate. He has faced off with this Rays team 4 times in the regular season, going 1-1, while throwing 21 innings, allowing 11 earned runs and striking out 24 hitters. He has faired well in the matchup despite his last outting against the Rays where he gave up 6 earned runs in 3.2 innings of work. Rodriguez has been extremely unlucky this year when you look at the underlying numbers, he was due for positive regression all year and that came to fruition in the second half. He will have a tough assignment tonight as the projected lineup for the Rays boast a combined .219 ISO, .370 wOBA, and a low 21.2% strikeout rate against left handed pitching this season.


Shane McClanahan (10-6, 3.43 ERA) will take the mound for the Rays in game 1 against the Red Sox. Entering the postseaosn season the young left hander has 4.1 innings of postseason work so far in his career along with an 8.31 ERA and 2.31 WHIP. McClanahan enters this game with a 1.27 WHIP and 3.57 XFIP. This season he carries a 26.9% strikeout rate along with a 7.3% walk rate. He faced off against this Red Sox team three times during the regular season, going 16 innings, allowing 5 earned runs, while striking out 18 hitters. McClanahan gets hit extremely hard by both sides of the plate but hasn't been too hurt by it as he is able to keep the ball down in the process. The young lefty will be asked to handle a tough assignment tonight taking on an experienced Red Sox team coming off a big win in the wildcard.


Both these pitchers have had decent succes against each other through out the season. Rodriguez really turned it around in the second half of the season and looks poised to continue his strong run. McClanahan has handled this Red Sox lineup this season and though he will be making his first postseason start I think he does enough to slow down the Red Sox offense. I'll target the total in this one as E-rod has been better of late and McClanahan is backed by an elite bullpen. 

PICK: Under 8   (-120)

Find more sports picks from the top sports bettors and MLB experts all in one place using our iOS and Google Play apps, as well as our other articles at  We are the home for MLB picks, sports picks and sports betting.

Winnings $57,370
last 30 days winnings $0
Yesterday winnings $0
Top Sport MLB
W-L-D 795 - 676 - 48
Winnings % 51%
Winnings $55,355
last 30 days winnings $0
Yesterday winnings $0
Top Sport NCAAB
W-L-D 157 - 92 - 4
Winnings % 62%