Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 29 (9/29): MLB

Credit: photo by Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

 

Odds

Time	7:05 p.m. EST
Red Sox money line	-250
Red Sox run line	-1.5 (-160)
Orioles money line	+205
Orioles run line	+1.5 (+135)
Over / under	9.5 (-105)

 

Key stats

	Red Sox	Orioles
Record	88-69	51-106
Road / home record	39-37	26-53
Last 10 record	6-4	4-6
Streak	4L	1W
Over / under record	73-81-3	78-75-4
Runs / game	5.13	4.10
Runs allowed / game	4.67	5.86

 

Preview

Tonight we have the Red Sox taking on the Orioles in Baltimore. The Red Sox enter this game after losing a poor game lastnight against this Orioles team. They currently sit in the second wildcard spot as they have a 0.5 game lead on the Mariners and a 1 game lead on the Blue Jays. They will look to get back to their winning ways in an easy matchup tonight. The Orioles enter this one as one of the worst teams in the league, though they were able to pick up a win lastnight. They will look to play spoiler once again tonight and make the Red Sox earn a postseason spot.

Pitching matchup

Red Sox

Nathan Eovaldi (10-9, 3.88 ERA) will be on the mound for the Red Sox tonight. Eovaldi enters this game with a 1.20 WHIP and 3.83 XFIP. This season he carries a 24.9% strikeout rate along with a low 4.9% walk rate. Eovaldi has been steady this season for the Red Sox, other than a poor outting last time out against the Yankees he has been good of late. He is vulnerable to giving up some power to both sides of the plate, but for the most part he has been able to induce softer and poorer contact. He should be able to handle this Baltimore team pretty easily as they boast a projected strikeout rate over 25% tonight, and have not been good against right handed pitching.

Orioles

Zac Lowther (1-2, 7.66 ERA) will be on the mound for the Orioles when they host the Red Sox. Lowther enters this game with a 1.66 WHIP and 4.69 XFIP. This season he carries a 22.2% strikeout rate along with a high 11.1% walk rate. Lowther will be making his 5th start tonight, and he has not been particularly good in those starts. He gets hit hard for power and contact by both sides of the plate, combined that with his high walk rate and you have a recipe for disaster. This Boston team got to Lowther last time they faced off and I see much of the same happening tonight.

Prediction

I'll be taking the Red Sox in this one. Boston should be able to wake up in this game and put up some runs. Eovaldi should be able to produce 6 solid innings and take an easy win.

PICK: Red Sox -1.5 (-160) ([odds])

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