Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 6 (9/6): MLB

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 6 (9/6): MLB

Credit: photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 1:10 p.m. EST
Rays money line +136
Rays run line +1.5 (-149)
Red Sox money line -161
Red Sox run line -1.5 (+125)
Over / under 8.5 (-122)

 

Key stats
  Rays Red Sox
Record 86-51 79-60
Road / home record 41-25 43-27
Last 10 record 7-3 6-4
Streak L1 L1
Over / under record 75-57-5 63-73-3
Runs / game 5.35 5.03
Runs allowed / game 4.07 4.57

 

Preview

The Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays in the first game of a three game series Monday afternoon.  These teams split the 4 games series last week in Tampa Bay.  The Rays come in winning 2 of 3 vs the Twins, and have won 11 of their last 14.  The Red Sox took 2 of 3 vs the Indians, and have won 4 of 5.

The Rays put 21 runs on the board in the 3 game series vs the Twins (7 runs per game on average).  In the last series vs the Red Sox, they scored 16 runs in the 4 games.

The Red Sox scored 17 runs in the 3 games vs the Indians, and 13 runs in the 4 game series vs the Rays.

Pitching matchup

Rays

Ryan Yarbrough (8-4, 4.50 ERA) pitches for the Rays in his 26th start, coming off a 3.56 ERA 2020, 4.13 ERA 2019 and 3.91 ERA 2018.  His last game was against the Red Sox, where he went 6.0 innings, giving up 2 earned runs on 5 hits.  His previous three starts against the Red Sox were not good, going a combined 12.0 innings, giving up 16 earned runs.  Red Sox batters have hit Yarbrough well, going 38 for 115 (.330 AVG), with 10 home runs.

Red Sox

Chris Sale (3-0, 2.53 ERA) makes his 5th start for the Red Sox.  Like Yarbrough, he went 6.0 innings last outing vs the Rays, giving up 2 earned runs.  His other three starts in August were a combined 15.1 innings, giving up 4 earned runs on 13 hits and 3 walks, with 21 strikeouts.  Rays batters have gone 25 for 93 against Sale (.269 AVG), with 4 home runs and 28 strikeouts.

Prediction

Both of these teams come in with hot bats, and they split the 4 game series last week.  For us, it comes down to how Yarbrough does against the Red Sox.  He pitched well last time out, but gave up 16 earned runs in 12.0 innings in the first 3 games.  Red Sox batters are hitting .330 against Yarbrough, and we see them taking advantage of him once again.  The money line is a bit steep, so take the run line and get the + odds.

PICK: Red Sox -1.5 (+125)

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