Pirates vs Phillies Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 25 (9/25): MLB

Pirates vs Phillies Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 25 (9/25): MLB

Credit: photo by Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Time 4:05 p.m. EST
Pirates money line +210
Pirates run line +1.5 (+105)
Phillies money line -260
Phillies run line -1.5 (-125)
Over / under 8.5 (-120)


Key stats
  Pirates Phillies
Record 57-96 80-74
Road / home record 23-55 46-33
Last 10 record 5-5 8-2
Streak 2L 4W
Over / under record 73-72-8 75-74-5
Runs / game 3.72 4.62
Runs allowed / game 5.11 4.65



Tonight we have the Pirates taking on the Phillies.  The Pirates come into this one fully eliminated from the postseason as they have been one of the worst teams in the league.  Their lineup has no power besides a couple guys and their pitching has been abysmal all year.  They'll look to finish the season out strong. The Phillies enter this game in nice fashion, winning 4 straight and going 8-2 in their last 10 games.  They currently sit 1.5 games back of the Braves in the NL East and 5 games back of the Cardinals for a wildcard spot. This is a big game for the Phillies and they are starting to get hot at the right time.

Pitching matchup


Wil Crowe (4-7, 5.77 ERA) will be on the mound for the Pirates today when they take on the Phillies. Crowe enters this game with a 1.58 WHIP and an ugly 5.29 XFIP.  This season he carries a 21.4% strikeout rate along with a high 10.7% walk rate.  Crowe has been very mediocre this season for the Pirates.  He walks too many hitters and gives up too much contact and power to both sides of the plate to be succesful.  He comes into this game off a nice outting against the depleted Marlins, but I don't expect that to continue tonight against a much better Phillies team looking to make the postseason. 


Ranger Suarez (6-5, 1.60 ERA) will be on the mound for the Phillies when they host the Pirates.  Suarez enters this game with a 1.06 WHIP and 3.82 XFIP. This season he carries a nice 25% strikeout rate along with an 8.3% walk rate.  Suarez has been good this year since being put into a starter roll.  He induces a ton of soft contact and is able to keep the ball on the ground as he has a 59.6% groundball rate to opposing offenses.  He gets to take on a weak and depleted Pirates team where he will try and get his 7th win of the season.


I expect the Phillies to continue to win tonight in easy fashion.  Crowe has been bad this year and when he gives the ball up to the bullpen it doesn't get any better.  This Phillies team should get their 5th straight win tonight.

PICK: Phillies -1.5 (-125)

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