Phillies vs Marlins Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 3 (9/3): MLB

Credit: photo by Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

Odds

Key stats

Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies head to Florida to play the Miami Marlins in the first game of a three game series Friday night.  The Phillies are coming off a three game sweep against the Nationals, having battled back last night from 6 runs down.  They've now won 6 straight, and are still 2 games behind the Braves in the NL East race.  The Marlins dropped their last 2 games to the Mets in a mini-sweep, after winnings 4 of their previous 5 games.

The Phillies bats continue to produce, and have averaged 7.8 runs per game over their 6 game win streak.  They've scored 7 in 5 of the 6 games and 12 in one game.

The Marlins have struggled to score, with just 4 runs in their 2 game loss vs the Mets, and averaging 2.4 runs per game over their last 5. 

Pitching matchup

Phillies

Kyle Gibson (10-5, 2.94 ERA) makes his 6th start for the Phillies after joining from the Rangers earlier this season.  He's pitched well since coming across to the Phillies, apart from one 6 earned run game in 4.1 innings against the Dodgers.  In his other 5 starts he's gone a comgined 32.2 innings, giving up 7 earned runs on 25 hits, with 9 walks and 19 strikeouts.  Marlins batters have gone 5 for 16 (.313 AVG) against Gibson, with 1 home run, 3 walks and 2 strikeouts.

Marlins

Jesus Luzardo (5-7, 7.19 ERA) pitches for the Marlins.  He's struggled in his 12 starts this season, but pitched 6 scoreless innings has game vs the Reds.  In his 5 previous starts in August, after transferring from the Athletics, he went a combined 22.1 innings, giving up 24 earned runs on 31 hits, 17 walks and 20 strikeouts.  Only Freddy Galvis from the Phillies has faced Luzardo, going 1 for 5 with a double and a strikeout.

Prediction

Luzardo has been terrible recently, apart from his last good start.  He's given up more than 1 earned run per inning, with a 10.7 ERA, and a 1.8 WHIP.  The Phillies bats continue to produce, and if they aren't hung over from last night's heroic come back, they should easily win this game.  They have something to play for and the Marlins don't.  We're surprised this line isn't bigger, and take the run line to get some juice squeezed in.

PICK: Phillies -1.5 (+120)

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