Nationals vs Reds Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 23 (9/23): MLB

Nationals vs Reds Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 23 (9/23): MLB

  • Ajay
  • Ajay
  • Sep 23, 2021, 9:10:14 AM

Credit: photo by Sam Greene-via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Time 6:40 p.m. EST
Nationals money line +184
Nationals run line +1.5 (-112)
Reds money line -196
Reds run line -1.5 (+103)
Over / under 8.5 (-105)


Key stats
  Nationals Reds
Record 63-89 78-74
Road / home record 28-46 40-36
Last 10 record 5-5 3-7
Streak W2 L1
Over / under record 68-77-7 75-70-7
Runs / game 4.51 4.81
Runs allowed / game 5.01 4.66



The Nats are in Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati to start a four-game road tilt against the Reds.  The Nationals are already been eliminated from playoff contention. They beat the Marlins in Florida last night to win that series 2-1 and have now won 3 of their last 4 games.  They averaged 7 runs per game in that last series against the Marlins.  The Reds' form has dipped recently winning only 3 of their last 10 games.  Their Wednesday night game against Pittsburgh was postponed which leaves the series currently in a deadlock.  The Reds sit just outside of the Wild Card spots but their recent results have seen them slip to about 4.5 games off of achieving that position.  Their playoff destiny isn't in their hands as they enter into this home series. 

Pitching matchup


Patrick Corbin (8-15, 6.17 ERA) Patrick Corbin is expected to make his 30th start of the season for the Nats.  Corbin currently is the joint-league leader in losses with 15 and also leads the league in ERs with 109 and home runs, 36.  He's a career 4.11 ERA pitcher with a 6.17 in 2021 to go along with a 1.47 WHIP.  His totals are through 159 innings where he surrendered 182 hits and had 127 strikeouts and 53 walks. 


Luis Castillo (8-15, 4.08 ERA) Luis Castillo will take the mound for the Reds in game 1.  The fifth-year pitcher is joint-leader in losses, racking up 15 of them.  Castillo is seeing an over 4.00 ERA for only the second time in his short career with a 4.08 in 2021 but is a career 3.74 pitcher.  Through 176.1 innings he gave up 169 hits for 80 ERs and walked 69 batters compared to striking out 181.


Neither of these clubs has been tight defensively as of recent and the Nats batting has been in a rich vein of form.  With the pitching matchup, it makes it hard to believe that this game won't have a lot of runs on the board.  The over / under at 8.5 seems very achievable.  

PICK: Over 8.5 (-105)

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