Nationals vs Marlins Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 22 (9/22): MLB

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 22 (9/22): MLB

Credit: photo by Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Time 6:40 p.m. EST
Nationals money line +108
Nationals run line +1.5 (-175)
Marlins money line -130
Marlins run line -1.5 (+150)
Over / under 8 (-110)


Key stats
  Nationals Marlins
Record 62-89 64-87
Road / home record 27-46 40-37
Last 10 record 4-6 5-5
Streak 1W 1L
Over / under record 68-77-6 67-74-10
Runs / game 4.47 3.97
Runs allowed / game 5.03 4.25



Today we have the Nationals taking on the Marlins in Miami. The Nats enter this game with no postseason hopes as they were sellers at the deadline.  They will continue to get looks at their younger prospects as this season comes to a close.  The Marlins enter this game also firmly out of the postseason picture as their bats have failed them miserably this year.  Their pitching has been good but with the amount of strikeouts that their hitters rack up it's tough to compete night in and night out, they'll look to close out the season on high note.

Pitching matchup


Josiah Gray (0-2, 6.24 ERA) will be on the mound for the Nationals when they take on the Marlins.  Gray enters this game with a 1.44 WHIP and an ugly 5.89 XFIP.  This season he carries a 24.3% strikeout rate along with a high 11.5% walk rate.  Gray has been abysmal since being called up, to say he has a homerun problem would be putting it kindly.  In the 53.1 innings he's pitched this season he has allowed a whopping 18 homeruns and 37 earned runs.  He gives up contact and power to both sides of the plate and his pitch mix has been hit hard in all his outtings.  Last time out against this Marlins team he went 6 innings allowing only 2 earned runs, he will look for that kind of performance again against a weak Marlins team.


Elieser Hernandez (1-2, 3.80 ERA) will be on the mound for the Marlins when they host the Nationals. Hernandez enters this game with a 1.24 WHIP and 5.04 XFIP. This season he carries a 22.2% strikeout rate along with a 6.8% walk rate. Hernandez has been mediocre this season in his limited innings and although his ERA is low he is due some regression.  He's been hit hard by both sides of the plate and gives up a ton of power to left handed hitters.  When he isn't getting hit hard he's ben able to keep batters off balance and induce poor contact.  In his last meeting with the Nationals he went 5 innings while allwoing 2 earned runs.  He will look to pick up his second win of the season against a weak Nationals team.


Gray has been giving up homeruns and runs in bunches this year and although he benefits from pitching in Miami and against a weak Marlins team he will still have his work cut out for himself.  Hernandez has been mediocre and the uderlying numbers show regression is on the way eventually.  I think both these offenses have enough talent to get on base and drive in some runs so I will be looking to target this total in this one.

PICK: Over 8 (-110)

Find more sports picks from the top sports bettors and MLB experts all in one place using our iOS and Google Play apps, as well as our other articles at  We are the home for MLB picks, sports picks and sports betting.

Winnings $66,680
last 30 days winnings $31,010
Yesterday winnings ($750)
Top Sport MLB
W-L-D 1068 - 923 - 69
Winnings % 50%
Winnings $37,940
last 30 days winnings $32,650
Yesterday winnings $6,960
Top Sport NBA
W-L-D 201 - 141 - 5
Winnings % 57%