Nationals vs Brewers Pick, Prediction, Odds and Preview, August 21: MLB

Odds

Key stats

Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Washington Nationals in the second game of a three game series Saturday afternoon.  The Nationals took the first game 4-1, as they jumped out early in the 4th and didn't look back, and they held the Brewers to just 3 hits.  The Nationals have now won 3 in a row after dropping their previous 7.  The Brewers came into the series winning 4 of their last 5, but have now dropped 2 games in a row.

The Nats bats have come alive the last 4 games, averaging 7.25 runs and scoring 4 or more in each of those games.

The Brewers have averaged 3.5 runs in their last 6, with solid pitching helping them win 4 of those 6.

Pitching matchup

Nationals

Paolo Espino (3-4, 4.16 ERA) take the mound for the Nationals.  A reliever turned starter, he got rocked his last time out at home vs the Brave, allowing 5 earned runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in 4.0 innings.  In August, he's gone a combined 10.0 innings and allowed 18 hits, 3 walks and 12 earned runs.  He's coming off a 6 ERA 2017 and 4.50 ERA 2020.  Brewers batters have only seen him 6 times, getting 2 hits and 2 walks.

Brewers

Eric Lauer (4-4, 3.44 ERA) pitches for the Brewers, coming off a horrid (but short) 2020 with a 13.09 ERA, a 4.45 ERA 2019 and a 4.34 ERA 2018.  He's been limited in his pitch count and innings in his last 4, but has done well recently.  Since July, he's gone a combined 29.1 innings in 6 starts, giving up 19 hits, 10 walks and 6 earned runs.  Nationals batters have gone 8 for 30 against Lauer (.267 AVG), with 1 home run and 3 walks.

Prediction

This game will likely come down to bullpens by the 4th or 5th, as both pitchers aren't great and get pulled early.  The Nationals bullpen has a 4.73 ERA this season, and the Brewers bullpen a 3.72 ERA.  However, while the Brewers bats have hit a cold streak, the Nats bats have come alive.  We see big value in the Nationals and don't think the line should be this big.

PICK: Nationals money line (+197)

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