MLB Total Predictions and Picks: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds - 7/30
- Big Ben Profits
- Jul 29, 2024, 4:21:49 PM
MLB Total Predictions and Picks: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds - 7/30
Game Summary
The Chicago Cubs will face off against the Cincinnati Reds on July 30, 2024, at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. This matchup pits two teams with closely matched records against each other, as both clubs are looking to improve their standing in the division. The Cubs enter this game with an overall record of 50-56, while the Reds have a slightly better record at 51-56. Both teams have struggled at times this season, but the Reds have shown flashes of offensive power, particularly at home.
On the mound for the Cubs will be Frankie Montas, who has had a challenging season with a 4-8 record and an ERA of 5.01. Montas has struggled with consistency, allowing a significant number of hits and walks, which could be a concern against a Reds lineup that has the ability to capitalize on mistakes. Conversely, Justin Steele will take the mound for the Reds. Steele has been relatively effective this season, boasting a 2-4 record with a 3.08 ERA, indicating he has the potential to keep the Cubs' bats quiet.
The offensive efforts will also play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this game. The Cubs have scored 460 runs this season, ranking them 15th in the MLB, while the Reds have scored 440 runs, placing them 22nd. Given the current form of both offenses, this game could hinge on the ability of the starting pitchers to control the pace and flow of the game.
With the expected thunderstorms and a temperature of 85 degrees, weather conditions could also impact gameplay, possibly leading to a higher number of runs if pitchers struggle to adjust.
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Odds and Betting Lines
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over/Under | 9.0 |
| Chicago Cubs Moneyline | -105 |
| Cincinnati Reds Moneyline | -115 |
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Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele (CIN) | 2-4 | 3.08 | 1.06 | 96.1 | 79 | 91 | 23 | 8 |
| Frankie Montas (CHC) | 4-8 | 5.01 | 1.44 | 93.1 | 93 | 78 | 41 | 14 |
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Team Previews
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have had a rocky season, currently sitting at 50-56. Their hitting lineup has produced a total of 785 hits with a batting average of .228, ranking them 28th in the league. They have shown potential, but inconsistency has plagued their performance. With players like Elly De La Cruz leading the way, boasting a batting average of .263 and 18 home runs, there are flashes of brilliance. However, the Cubs' pitching staff, with an ERA of 3.83, has been decent, but they need Montas to step up significantly in this matchup to support their batting efforts.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds, with a record of 51-56, have had a slightly better season than the Cubs. Their offensive output has also been underwhelming, with 830 hits and a batting average of .233. Despite their challenges, players like Ian Happ, who has 16 home runs and 60 RBIs, are important to their chances in this game. The Reds' pitching staff has been solid, with a 3.72 ERA, which should provide a competitive edge in this matchup. Justin Steele's recent performances have been promising, and if he can maintain his form, it could lead to a successful outing against the struggling Cubs lineup.
Team Injuries
Chicago Cubs
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Kilian | RP | Shoulder | Expected to be out until at least Jul 29 |
Cincinnati Reds
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Maile | C | Back | Expected to be out until at least Jul 29 |
| Austin Wynns | C | Shoulder | Expected to be out until at least Sep 1 |
| Peyton Burdick | RF | Undisclosed | Expected to be out until at least Jul 29 |
| Graham Ashcraft | SP | Elbow | Expected to be out until at least Sep 17 |
| Carson Spiers | SP | Shoulder | Expected to be out until at least Jul 29 |
Betting Trends
- The Cubs are 50-56 overall and 25-28 on the road.
- The Reds are 51-56 overall and 27-25 at home.
- Chicago has struggled against left-handed pitchers.
- Cincinnati has shown resilience in close games.
- The total has gone over in 5 of the last 7 Cubs games.
Recent Games
Chicago Cubs Recent Games
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Arizona | L 5-2 | 49-52 |
| vs Milwaukee | W 3-1 | 49-53 |
| @ Kansas City | L 6-0 | 49-56 |
| @ Kansas City | W 9-4 | 50-56 |
| @ Kansas City | W 7-3 | 51-56 |
Cincinnati Reds Recent Games
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Washington | L 8-5 | 47-51 |
| @ Atlanta | W 4-1 | 48-53 |
| @ Tampa Bay | W 3-2 F/10 | 50-53 |
| @ Tampa Bay | L 4-0 | 50-54 |
| @ Tampa Bay | L 2-1 | 50-55 |
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Team Rankings
| Team | Hitting | Starting Pitching | Relief Pitching | Fielding |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 28th | 11th | Tied-24th | 4th |
| Cincinnati Reds | Tied-22nd | 6th | Tied-22nd | 19th |
Significant Betting Stats
- Cubs have a total of 460 runs scored this season.
- Reds have a total of 440 runs scored this season.
- Montas has allowed 14 home runs this season.
- Steele has a WHIP of 1.06, indicating solid control.
- Both teams are averaging below .230 in batting average.
- Over has hit in 5 of the last 7 games for the Cubs.
- Cubs are 15th in runs scored, while Reds are 22nd.
- Montas has struggled in away games this season.
- Cubs' bullpen has a combined ERA of over 4.50.
- Reds have a better home record compared to their overall performance.
Weather
Weather conditions are expected to include thunderstorms with a temperature of 85 degrees.
Prediction
Given the current form of both teams and their respective starting pitchers, I predict that the total runs will exceed the set line of 9.0. The Cubs have shown a tendency to score when needed, and with Montas on the mound, the Reds are likely to capitalize on any mistakes he makes. Steele, while solid, could also be vulnerable against the Cubs' lineup. Therefore, with both offenses capable of producing runs and considering the weather conditions, the expected total runs in this matchup will likely go over 9.0.
Pick: Over 9.0 runs
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