MLB Total Picks Tonight: Astros vs Mariners - 7/19

- Kingpin
- Jul 18, 2024, 7:22:54 PM
© Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
MLB Moneyline Picks Tonight: Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners - 7/19
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Game Summary
The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are set to face off in an exciting matchup at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. This game promises to deliver high-quality baseball as both teams look to improve their standings. The Astros, with a record of 52-46, have shown their resilience on the road with a 22-28 away record. On the other hand, the Mariners, boasting a 50-46 record, have been strong at home with a 28-21 home record.
The Astros have been struggling offensively, ranking 30th in hits and batting average, and 27th in runs scored. However, their pitching has been a bright spot, with a team ERA of 3.46, ranking 3rd in the league. The Mariners, meanwhile, have been solid offensively, ranking 2nd in hits, 9th in runs scored, and 1st in batting average. Their pitching has been more middle-of-the-pack, with an ERA of 4.03, ranking 17th.
Both teams have key players who will be crucial in this matchup. For the Astros, Jose Altuve leads the team with a .306 batting average, while Yordan Alvarez has been a power threat with 19 home runs and 52 RBIs. The Mariners will rely on Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh, who have been consistent performers this season.
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Odds and Betting Lines
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | +104 |
| Under 7.5 | -128 |
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Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 7-6 | 4.39 | 105 |
| Undecided (SEA) | -- | -- | -- |
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Team Previews
Houston Astros
Hitting: The Astros' offense has struggled mightily this season, hitting just .219 as a team, which ranks last in the league. They also rank at the bottom in hits with 701 and have scored only 379 runs, placing them 27th in that category.
Relief Pitching: The Astros' bullpen has been a strength, recording 26 saves, which is tied for 9th in the league. Their relievers have been able to close out games effectively when given a lead.
Fielding: With 51 errors, the Astros are tied for 14th in fielding. While not the best, their defense has been decent enough to support their strong pitching staff.
Starting Pitchers: Houston's starting rotation has been impressive, boasting a 3rd-ranked ERA of 3.46. Hunter Brown, who will start this game, has a 7-6 record with a 4.39 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 98.1 innings pitched.
Seattle Mariners
Hitting: The Mariners have been one of the best hitting teams in the league, ranking 2nd in hits with 866 and 1st in batting average at .262. They have also scored 457 runs, placing them 9th in the league.
Relief Pitching: Seattle's bullpen has been relatively average, with 23 saves, ranking them tied for 18th. They will need to step up against a potent Astros lineup.
Fielding: The Mariners have committed 41 errors, ranking them 29th in the league in fielding. Improving their defense will be crucial in this matchup.
Starting Pitchers: The Mariners' starting rotation has been decent, with a team ERA of 4.03, ranking 17th. However, with their starter for this game undecided, there are some uncertainties in their pitching plans.
Team Injuries
Houston Astros
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia | SP | Elbow | Expected to be out until at least Aug 12 |
| Blair Henley | SP | Undisclosed | Expected to be out until at least Jul 22 |
Seattle Mariners
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryne Stanek | RP | Back | Expected to be out until at least Jul 19 |
Betting Trends
- Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 games as an underdog.
- Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-4 in Astros' last 10 road games.
- Over is 7-3 in Mariners' last 10 home games.
Recent Games
Houston Astros
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Athletics | 5-4 | W |
| @ Athletics | 3-2 | L |
| @ Angels | 7-5 | W |
| @ Angels | 6-4 | L |
| @ Angels | 5-1 | W |
Seattle Mariners
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Athletics | 6-2 | W |
| vs Athletics | 4-3 | W |
| vs Angels | 10-7 | W |
| vs Angels | 5-4 | W |
| vs Angels | 3-1 | L |
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Team Rankings
| Category | Astros | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 30th | 2nd |
| Starting Pitching | 3rd | 17th |
| Relief Pitching | 9th | 18th |
| Fielding | 14th | 29th |
Significant Betting Stats
- Astros are 10-1 in their last 11 games following a win.
- Astros are 5-2 in their last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
- Mariners are 8-3 in their last 11 during Game 2 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Astros' last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-2 in Mariners' last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Astros are 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Mariners are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win.
- Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
- Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
- Under is 6-2 in Astros' last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Weather
The weather for the game at T-Mobile Park is expected to be mostly sunny with a temperature of 77°F. This indoor venue ensures that weather conditions will not affect the gameplay.
Prediction
Pick: Under 7.5 runs
The Astros' struggles on offense and strong pitching make the under a solid pick in this matchup. Additionally, with the Mariners' bullpen being average and their starting pitcher undecided, it points towards a lower-scoring game. The recent trends also support the under, with the Astros' games often hitting the under mark when set at 7.0-8.5.
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