MLB Total Picks: Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays 7/26
- A Plus Picks
- Jul 25, 2024, 9:44:06 PM
MLB Total Picks: Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays 7/26
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Game Summary
The Cincinnati Reds and Tampa Bay Rays are set to clash at Tropicana Field on July 26. This interleague matchup features two teams with different trajectories. The Reds have shown flashes of brilliance this season but have struggled with consistency. They currently hold a record of 52-51, which places them in the middle of the pack in the National League Central. The Reds have been relatively balanced, with a mix of solid pitching and sporadic offensive bursts.
On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Rays, with a record of 49-53, have had a more challenging season. Despite their struggles, they have shown resilience and the ability to compete with top teams. The Rays are known for their strategic approach and strong pitching staff, which has kept them in many games. This game will be crucial for both teams as they look to improve their standings and make a push for the playoffs.
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Odds and Betting Lines
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | -114 |
| Under 7.5 | -106 |
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Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 8-3 | 3.51 | 89 |
| Shane Baz (TB) | 0-1 | 3.95 | 12 |
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Team Previews
Cincinnati Reds
Hitting: The Reds have struggled offensively, ranking 27th in runs scored with 400 and 23rd in batting average at .233. Their leading hitter, Isaac Paredes, has a batting average of .250 and has contributed 16 home runs and 55 RBIs.
Relief Pitching: The Reds’ bullpen has been a bright spot, ranking 4th in saves with 33. However, their overall ERA of 4.21 places them 22nd in the league.
Fielding: Defensively, the Reds have committed 52 errors, ranking 17th, which shows room for improvement.
Starting Pitchers: Nick Lodolo has been a consistent performer with an 8-3 record, 3.51 ERA, and 89 strikeouts in 84.2 innings pitched.
Tampa Bay Rays
Hitting: The Rays have also faced offensive struggles, ranking 14th in runs scored with 456 and 28th in batting average at .231. Jonathan India leads the team with a .271 batting average, while Elly De La Cruz has contributed 18 home runs and 64 RBIs.
Relief Pitching: The Rays’ bullpen has been less effective, ranking tied-24th in saves with 21. Their overall ERA of 3.86 is relatively strong, ranking 13th in the league.
Fielding: Defensively, the Rays have committed 65 errors, ranking 4th, indicating a strong defensive unit.
Starting Pitchers: Shane Baz, although limited in innings, has shown potential with a 3.95 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 13.2 innings pitched.
Team Injuries
Cincinnati Reds
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williamson | SP | Shoulder | Expected to be out until at least Sep 1 |
| Luke Maile | C | Back | Expected to be out until at least Jul 26 |
Tampa Bay Rays
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Lovelady | RP | Forearm | Expected to be out until at least Jul 26 |
| Wander Franco | SS | Personal | Out for the season |
Betting Trends
- The total has gone under in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games.
- The total has gone under in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road.
- The total has gone over in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games.
- The total has gone over in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home.
Recent Games
Cincinnati Reds
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Washington | 5-8 | L |
| @ Washington | 4-5 | L |
| @ Washington | 2-5 | L |
| @ Atlanta | 4-1 | W |
| @ Atlanta | 9-4 | W |
Tampa Bay Rays
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ New York | 1-6 | L |
| @ New York | 9-1 | W |
| @ New York | 6-4 | W |
| @ New York | 1-9 | L |
| @ Toronto | 4-2 | W |
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Team Rankings
| Category | Cincinnati Reds | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Hitting (AVG) | .233 (23rd) | .231 (28th) |
| Runs | 400 (27th) | 456 (14th) |
| ERA | 4.21 (22nd) | 3.86 (13th) |
| Fielding (Errors) | 52 (17th) | 65 (4th) |
Significant Betting Stats
- Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road.
- Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games.
- Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay.
- Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games.
- Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road.
- Tampa Bay is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home.
Weather
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms, temperature around 86°F.
Prediction
Given the pitching matchup and recent trends, this game is likely to be a low-scoring affair. Both teams have shown inconsistencies in their offensive output, and the strong pitching performances from Nick Lodolo and Shane Baz will likely keep runs at a premium. The total has gone under in many of Cincinnati’s recent games and Tampa Bay’s home games. Thus, the smart play here is to bet on the under.
Pick: Under 7.5 runs
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