MLB Total Picks: Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals 7/13
Photo Credit: © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Washington Nationals at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 13. This game will be a crucial matchup as both teams aim to solidify their positions in their respective divisions. The Brewers, with a record of 54-40, have been strong at home with a 28-15 record. On the other hand, the Nationals, currently at 42-52, have struggled both home and away, presenting a 20-24 home record and a 22-28 road record.
Milwaukee's offense has been potent, ranking 4th in hits (816) and 7th in runs (450), while maintaining a commendable team batting average of .255. Their pitching staff is also notable with an ERA of 3.78, placing them 8th in the league. Meanwhile, the Nationals have been inconsistent, ranking 19th in hits (737) and runs (388), with a team batting average of .237. Their pitching has been average with an ERA of 4.11.
This game will feature a pitching matchup between Dallas Keuchel (0-0, 4.61 ERA) for the Brewers and Mitchell Parker (5-5, 3.44 ERA) for the Nationals. The Brewers have had a more consistent bullpen and overall defensive play, while the Nationals have shown flashes of brilliance but often falter due to errors and lackluster relief pitching.
Odds and Betting Lines
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 9.0 | -105 |
| Under 9.0 | -115 |
Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Keuchel (MIL) | 0-0 | 4.61 | 9 |
| Mitchell Parker (WSH) | 5-5 | 3.44 | 74 |
Team Previews
Milwaukee Brewers
Hitting: The Brewers' offense is led by Christian Yelich, who boasts a batting average of .329. Willy Adames has been a power hitter for the team with 14 home runs and 62 RBIs. The team is ranked 4th in hits and 7th in runs, making them a formidable offensive unit.
Relief Pitching: The Brewers' bullpen has been solid, ranked 3rd in saves with 32. Their overall team ERA of 3.78 showcases a strong pitching staff that can shut down opposing offenses.
Fielding: Defensively, the Brewers are mid-tier with 49 errors, ranking 15th in the league. However, their solid pitching often compensates for their defensive lapses.
Starting Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel will be starting, and while he has a higher ERA of 4.61, he has shown potential to deliver quality starts. The Brewers' rotation overall has been dependable, contributing to their 54 wins so far.
Washington Nationals
Hitting: The Nationals' offense is spearheaded by Luis Garcia Jr., who has a batting average of .277, and CJ Abrams, who leads the team with 14 home runs and 46 RBIs. However, the team’s overall hitting ranks 19th in hits and runs, indicating struggles in consistently scoring.
Relief Pitching: The Nationals' bullpen has been average, with 24 saves ranking them tied for 13th. Their team ERA of 4.11 shows that the bullpen can be shaky, often giving up crucial runs late in games.
Fielding: Defensively, the Nationals have committed 52 errors, ranking 12th. Their defensive struggles have often put additional pressure on their pitching staff.
Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker will take the mound for the Nationals. He has been one of the bright spots for Washington with a 3.44 ERA and 74 strikeouts. His performance will be crucial if the Nationals hope to contain the Brewers' potent offense.
Team Injuries
Milwaukee Brewers
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Sanchez | DH | Calf | Expected to be out until at least Aug 10 |
| Joe Ross | SP | Back | Expected to be out until at least Jul 24 |
| J.B. Bukauskas | RP | Triceps | Expected to be out until at least Jul 21 |
| DL Hall | SP | Knee | Expected to be out until at least Jul 25 |
Washington Nationals
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | SP | Elbow | Expected to be out until at least Jul 27 |
Betting Trends
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- The total has gone under in 4 of the Brewers' last 5 games.
- Nationals are 3-7 in their last 10 games on the road.
- The total has gone over in 5 of the Nationals' last 7 games.
Recent Games
Milwaukee Brewers
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | 9-0 | W |
| Pittsburgh | 1-0 | L |
| Los Angeles | 5-3 | L |
| Los Angeles | 8-5 | L |
| Los Angeles | 9-2 | W |
Washington Nationals
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| New York | 7-0 | L |
| New York | 6-2 | L |
| New York | 7-5 | L |
| St. Louis | 7-6 | L |
| St. Louis | 14-6 | W |
Team Rankings
| Category | Brewers Rank | Nationals Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4th | 19th |
| Starting Pitching | 8th | 18th |
| Relief Pitching | 3rd | 13th |
| Fielding | 15th | 12th |
Significant Betting Stats
- Brewers are 54-40 on the moneyline this season.
- Nationals are 42-52 on the moneyline this season.
- Brewers are 51-43 against the spread this season.
- Nationals are 52-42 against the spread this season.
- Brewers games have gone over 51 times this season.
- Nationals games have gone over 44 times this season.
- Brewers have a .255 team batting average, ranking 4th.
- Nationals have a .237 team batting average, ranking 19th.
- Brewers bullpen has 32 saves, ranking 3rd.
- Nationals bullpen has 24 saves, ranking 13th.
Weather
Weather: Intermittent clouds, 85°F. AccuWeather Forecast
Prediction
Pick: Over 9.0 runs
Given the offensive capabilities of the Brewers and the inconsistent pitching from the Nationals, this game has the potential to see a lot of runs. Milwaukee has been strong offensively and has a high batting average, which should help them put runs on the board. Although Mitchell Parker has been solid for Washington, the rest of the pitching staff has been less reliable. Additionally, the Brewers' bullpen has been strong but might face challenges if the game goes deep. Considering both teams' trends and recent performances, the over 9.0 runs is a promising pick.
