MLB Total Expert Picks: Phillies vs Pirates Prediction 7/20
- Big Ben Profits
- Jul 20, 2024, 3:26:38 AM
© Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
MLB Total Expert Picks: Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates 7/20
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Game Summary
The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on July 20. This matchup features two teams that are currently on different trajectories. The Phillies are struggling to find consistency with a 48-48 record, while the Pirates are having a stellar season with a 62-34 record. The Pirates have been particularly strong at home with a 37-16 record. The Phillies, on the other hand, have been average on the road with a 26-24 record.
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Odds and Betting Lines
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | -122 |
| Under 8.5 | 100 |
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Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 7-4 | 2.96 | 1.23 | 103.1 | 99 | 87 | 28 | 2 |
| Luis Ortiz (PIT) | 4-2 | 2.84 | 1.16 | 66.2 | 58 | 57 | 19 | 3 |
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Team Previews
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have had a middling season so far, sitting at a .500 record. Their pitching staff has been solid, with an ERA of 3.86, ranking 13th in the league. Cristopher Sanchez has been a standout with a 2.96 ERA and a 7-4 record. Offensively, the Phillies have struggled, ranking 27th in batting average at .231. They will need to find more consistency at the plate to have a chance against the high-flying Pirates.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are having an excellent season, currently leading their division with a 62-34 record. They rank 2nd in ERA at 3.41 and 3rd in batting average at .259. Luis Ortiz has been a key contributor with a 2.84 ERA. The Pirates' offense is also potent, ranking 4th in runs scored. Their balanced attack and strong pitching make them a formidable opponent.
Team Injuries
Philadelphia Phillies
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto | C | Knee | Expected to be out until at least Jul 20 |
| Ranger Suarez | SP | Back | Expected to be out until at least Jul 22 |
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Stratton | RP | Triceps | Expected to be out until at least Jul 22 |
Betting Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games.
- Philadelphia are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games.
- Pittsburgh are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
- Philadelphia are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games against Pittsburgh.
Recent Games
Philadelphia Phillies
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Pittsburgh | 5-8 | L |
| @ Pittsburgh | 4-3 | W |
| @ Pittsburgh | 2-4 | L |
| @ Minnesota | 2-9 | L |
| @ Minnesota | 5-8 | L |
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Philadelphia | 8-5 | W |
| vs Philadelphia | 3-4 | L |
| vs Philadelphia | 4-2 | W |
| vs St. Louis | 9-2 | W |
| vs St. Louis | 8-5 | W |
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Team Rankings
| Category | Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 24th | 3rd |
| Starting Pitching | 13th | 2nd |
| Relief Pitching | Tied-14th | Tied-9th |
| Fielding | Tied-18th | Tied-9th |
Significant Betting Stats
- Philadelphia's games have gone UNDER the total in 4 of their last 6 games.
- Pittsburgh's games have gone UNDER the total in 5 of their last 7 games.
- Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
- Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
- Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games against Pittsburgh.
- Philadelphia's road games have gone UNDER the total in 4 of their last 6 games.
- Pittsburgh's home games have gone UNDER the total in 5 of their last 7 games.
- Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in their last 6 road games.
- Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in their last 7 home games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 home games.
Weather
Mostly sunny with a temperature of 86°F. Ideal conditions for a baseball game.
Prediction
Pick: Under 8.5 runs
Given the strong pitching performances expected from both teams, along with the recent trends of games going under the total, the under 8.5 runs is a solid pick for this matchup. Both Cristopher Sanchez and Luis Ortiz have been effective on the mound, and the offensive struggles of the Phillies further support this prediction.
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