MLB Total Expert Picks: Padres vs Mariners 7/10

MLB Total Expert Picks: Padres vs Mariners 7/10

© Denis Poroy-USA TODAY Sports

 

MLB Total Expert Picks: San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners

Game Summary

The San Diego Padres will host the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park on July 10. This matchup features two teams with similar records but different strengths and weaknesses. The Padres, with a record of 49-45, boast a potent offense, ranking first in hits and second in batting average. On the other hand, the Mariners, holding a 49-43 record, excel in pitching, ranking third in ERA. Both teams aim to solidify their playoff positions, making this game crucial for their respective campaigns.

The Padres' offense is led by Jurickson Profar, who tops the team in batting average (.315), home runs (14), and RBIs (59). The Mariners' offense, while not as powerful, relies on Julio Rodriguez, who leads the team in batting average (.247) and Cal Raleigh, who has hit the most home runs (15). The Mariners’ pitching staff, anchored by Bryce Miller (6-7, 3.84 ERA), will face a tough challenge against the Padres' lineup.

Historically, games between these two teams have been competitive, and given their current standings and individual performances, this game promises to be another closely contested affair. The Padres will be looking to capitalize on their home advantage, while the Mariners will rely on their strong pitching to stifle the Padres’ offense.

 

Odds and Betting Lines

Betting Market Odds
Over/Under 7.5
San Diego Padres Moneyline -114
Seattle Mariners Moneyline -106

 

Pitching Probables

Pitcher W-L ERA Strikeouts
Michael King (SD) 7-5 3.51 120
Bryce Miller (SEA) 6-7 3.84 97

 

Team Previews

San Diego Padres

Hitting: The Padres have a formidable lineup, ranking first in hits (840) and second in batting average (.263). Jurickson Profar is their key player, leading the team in batting average, home runs, and RBIs. The offense has been consistent, contributing significantly to their 49-45 record.

Relief Pitching: The Padres' bullpen has secured 24 saves, ranking tied for 12th in MLB. This indicates a reliable closing capability, essential for tight games.

Fielding: With 46 errors, the Padres’ defense ranks tied for 17th. While not exemplary, their fielding has been adequate to support their pitching and hitting efforts.

Starting Pitchers: Michael King, with a 7-5 record and a 3.51 ERA, leads the starting rotation. His strikeout ability (120 Ks) is a crucial asset, though he needs to maintain control to minimize walks.

 

Seattle Mariners

Hitting: The Mariners struggle offensively, ranking last in hits (649) and batting average (.217). Despite these challenges, players like Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh have shown potential in key moments.

Relief Pitching: The Mariners' bullpen has been a strength, recording 25 saves (tied for 8th). This aspect of their game is critical, often compensating for their offensive shortcomings.

Fielding: The Mariners have committed 49 errors, ranking 14th. Their defense has been solid, often supporting their strong pitching performances.

Starting Pitchers: Bryce Miller has been a standout with a 6-7 record and a 3.84 ERA. He needs to continue his form to give the Mariners a chance against the Padres' strong lineup.

 

Team Injuries

San Diego Padres

Player Name Position Injury Injury status
Glenn Otto RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 9
Yu Darvish SP Personal Expected to be out until at least Aug 1

 

Seattle Mariners

Player Name Position Injury Injury status
Gabe Speier RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 19

 

Betting Trends

  • The Padres are 49-45 against the spread this season.
  • The Mariners are 41-51 against the spread this season.
  • The Padres have hit the over in 51 of their 93 games.
  • The Mariners have hit the under in 50 of their 93 games.

 

Recent Games

San Diego Padres

Opponent Score W/L
vs Arizona L9-1 L
vs Arizona L7-5 L
vs Arizona W10-8 W
@ Texas W3-1 W
@ Texas W6-4 W

 

Seattle Mariners

Opponent Score W/L
vs Toronto L5-4 L
vs Toronto W2-1 W
vs Baltimore W7-3 W
vs Baltimore L4-1 L
vs Baltimore L2-0 L

 

Team Rankings

Category San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners
Hitting 1st (840 hits) 30th (649 hits)
Starting Pitching 20th (4.16 ERA) 3rd (3.55 ERA)
Relief Pitching Tied-12th (24 saves) Tied-8th (25 saves)
Fielding Tied-17th (46 errors) 14th (49 errors)

 

Significant Betting Stats

  • Padres are 9-1 in their last 10 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 home games with the total set at 7.5 or lower.
  • Mariners are 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
  • Mariners are 2-6 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 7.5 or lower.
  • Under is 7-2 in Padres last 9 games with the total set at 7.5 or lower.
  • Under is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games with the total set at 7.5 or lower.
  • Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 Wednesday games.
  • Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 games on grass.
  • Under is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Under is 8-3 in Padres last 11 games following a loss.

 

Weather

The weather forecast for the game at Petco Park is partly sunny with a temperature of 75°F. This pleasant weather should provide ideal conditions for both teams.

 

Prediction

Pick: Under 7.5 runs

Given the strong pitching matchup between Michael King and Bryce Miller, and the Mariners' struggles offensively, the total runs in this game are likely to be low. Both teams have shown tendencies to play in low-scoring games, especially when the total is set at 7.5 or lower. With the Mariners' bullpen ranking high and the Padres' offense facing a tough challenge, the under is a solid pick for this matchup.

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