MLB Total Expert Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves

Game Summary

The Atlanta Braves will aim to continue their winning streak as they face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday, July 10, 2024, at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. The Braves, currently second in the NL East with a 51-39 record, are looking to extend their four-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, standing third in the NL West with a 45-47 record, hope to bounce back after recent losses.

In their previous encounters this season, the Braves have dominated the Diamondbacks, winning all five games. The Diamondbacks have shown resilience at home with a 22-23 record and have performed well in games where they avoided giving up home runs. However, their overall performance has been inconsistent. The Braves, on the other hand, have a balanced 22-22 road record and have excelled in games where they recorded at least eight hits.

This matchup features two contrasting pitchers: Charlie Morton for the Braves, with a solid 3.96 ERA, and Slade Cecconi for the Diamondbacks, who has struggled with a 6.10 ERA. The game promises to be a thrilling contest as both teams look to assert their dominance and gain a crucial victory.

 

Odds and Betting Lines

Market	Odds
Over 9 Runs	-104
Under 9 Runs	-118
Braves Moneyline	-136
Diamondbacks Moneyline	+116
Braves -1.5	-130
Diamondbacks +1.5	+110

 

Pitching Probables

Pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts
Charlie Morton (ATL)	5-5	3.96	1.25	92
Slade Cecconi (ARI)	2-6	6.10	1.31	50

 

Team Previews

Arizona Diamondbacks

Hitting: The Diamondbacks have shown strength in their hitting lineup, with key players like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Christian Walker leading the charge. Ketel Marte boasts a .281 batting average, while Christian Walker has hit 22 home runs and driven in 65 RBIs. The team ranks 6th in runs scored with 450 and 8th in hits with 788.

Relief Pitching: The Diamondbacks' bullpen has been a weak spot, ranking 24th in saves with 19. Injuries to key relievers like Miguel Castro have further hampered their performance.

Fielding: Arizona's defense has struggled, committing 40 errors, ranking 27th in the league. This has often put additional pressure on their pitching staff.

Starting Pitchers: Slade Cecconi has had a tough season, with a 6.10 ERA and a 2-6 record. His high WHIP of 1.31 indicates control issues, which could be exploited by the Braves' hitters.

 

Atlanta Braves

Hitting: The Braves' offense has been consistent, with Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies making significant contributions. Marcell Ozuna leads the team with a .293 batting average and 23 home runs. The team ranks 17th in both hits (738) and runs scored (390).

Relief Pitching: The Braves' bullpen has been reliable, with 25 saves, ranking 8th in the league. This has been a crucial factor in their close wins.

Fielding: Atlanta's defense has been solid, committing only 38 errors, which is the fewest in the league.

Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton has been a steady presence in the Braves' rotation, with a 3.96 ERA and a 5-5 record. His ability to strike out batters (92 strikeouts) will be key in containing the Diamondbacks' hitters.

 

Team Injuries

Arizona Diamondbacks

Player Name	Position	Injury	Injury status
Brandon Pfaadt	SP	Ankle	Day-to-day
Jordan Montgomery	SP	Knee	15-Day IL
Merrill Kelly	SP	Shoulder	60-Day IL
Kyle Nelson	RP	Shoulder	60-Day IL
Miguel Castro	RP	Shoulder	15-Day IL

 

Atlanta Braves

Player Name	Position	Injury	Injury status
Brian Anderson	RF	Bacterial infection	10-Day IL
Spencer Strider	SP	Elbow	60-Day IL
Michael Harris II	CF	Hamstring	10-Day IL
Ronald Acuna Jr.	RF	Knee	60-Day IL

 

Betting Trends

• Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
• Braves are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
• Diamondbacks have gone 20-8 in games when they did not give up a home run.
• Braves have gone 34-12 in games with at least eight hits.
• Braves are 5-0 against the Diamondbacks this season.

 

Recent Games

Arizona Diamondbacks

Opponent	Score	W/L
vs Atlanta	L 5-4 (11)	L
vs Atlanta	L 6-2	L
@ San Diego	W 9-1	W
@ San Diego	W 7-5 (10)	W
@ San Diego	L 10-8	L

 

Atlanta Braves

Opponent	Score	W/L
@ Arizona	W 6-2	W
@ Arizona	W 5-4 (11)	W
vs Philadelphia	W 6-0	W
vs Philadelphia	W 5-1	W
vs Philadelphia	L 8-6	L

 

Team Rankings

Category	Diamondbacks	Braves
Hitting	8th	17th
Starting Pitching	28th	2nd
Relief Pitching	24th	8th
Fielding	27th	30th

 

Significant Betting Stats

• Diamondbacks are 22-23 at home this season.
• Braves are 22-22 on the road this season.
• Braves are 5-0 against the Diamondbacks this season.
• Over is 4-1 in Diamondbacks' last 5 home games.
• Under is 6-0 in Braves' last 6 road games.
• Over is 5-2 in Diamondbacks' last 7 games overall.
• Braves are 34-12 in games with at least eight hits.
• Diamondbacks have gone 20-8 in games when they did not give up a home run.
• Braves have a 2.42 ERA in their last 10 games.
• Diamondbacks have a 3.65 ERA in their last 10 games.

 

Weather

The weather for the game at Chase Field in Phoenix is expected to be mostly sunny with a high temperature of 114°F. The game will be played indoors, so the weather will not impact the playing conditions.

 

Prediction

Given the recent pitching performances of both teams, with the Braves having a 2.42 ERA and the Diamondbacks a 3.65 ERA over their last 10 games, this game is likely to be a low-scoring affair. Additionally, the Braves' strong bullpen and the struggles of Slade Cecconi suggest that runs will be at a premium. The indoor setting at Chase Field will also ensure consistent playing conditions, further supporting the prediction of a low-scoring game.