MLB Total Betting Analysis: Diamondbacks vs Braves 7/11
- Lm Tipster
- Jul 10, 2024, 5:15:19 PM
MLB Total Betting Analysis: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves 7/11
Game Summary
The Arizona Diamondbacks will face the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, on July 11. This game promises to be an intriguing matchup as the Diamondbacks, who are currently 45-47, host the Braves, who boast an impressive 51-39 record. The Diamondbacks are looking to bounce back after consecutive losses to the Braves, while the Braves aim to extend their winning streak.
Arizona’s starting pitcher, Brandon Pfaadt, holds a 3-6 record with a 4.19 ERA, while Atlanta’s Max Fried comes in with a 7-4 record and a 3.18 ERA. The Diamondbacks, known for their strong offensive lineup, rank 8th in hits and 6th in runs this season. Conversely, the Braves’ pitching staff has been stellar, ranking 2nd in ERA, which could pose a challenge for Arizona’s hitters.
Historically, the Braves have had the upper hand in this matchup, winning the last two games against Arizona. With both teams having their strengths and weaknesses, this game could go either way, making it a compelling matchup for fans and bettors alike.
Odds and Betting Lines
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over/Under | 8.0 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks Spread | -110 |
| Atlanta Braves Spread | -110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline | -110 |
| Atlanta Braves Moneyline | -110 |
Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 3-6 | 4.19 | 100 |
| Max Fried (ATL) | 7-4 | 3.18 | 88 |
Team Previews
Arizona Diamondbacks
Hitting: The Diamondbacks rank 8th in hits (788) and 6th in runs (450) this season. Ketel Marte leads the team with a .281 batting average, while Christian Walker has been a powerhouse with 22 home runs and 65 RBIs.
Relief Pitching: Arizona’s bullpen has struggled, ranking 24th in saves (19) and 28th in ERA (4.63). This could be a significant weakness against Atlanta's potent offense.
Fielding: The Diamondbacks have committed 40 errors, ranking 27th in the league. Their defensive lapses could be costly against a team like the Braves.
Starting Pitchers: Brandon Pfaadt has shown promise but has struggled with consistency. His 4.19 ERA indicates he can be hit, and facing a high-powered offense like Atlanta’s will be a tough test.
Atlanta Braves
Hitting: The Braves rank 17th in hits (738) and runs (390) this season. Marcell Ozuna has been a standout with a .293 batting average and 23 home runs, while leading the team with 73 RBIs.
Relief Pitching: Atlanta’s bullpen has been solid, with 25 saves (8th) and a 3.40 ERA (2nd). Their relievers have been reliable in closing out games, which could be crucial in a tight contest.
Fielding: The Braves have committed 38 errors, ranking 30th in the league. Their strong defense has been a significant factor in their success this season.
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried has been excellent, with a 3.18 ERA and 88 strikeouts. His consistency and ability to control the game will be pivotal against Arizona’s hitters.
Team Injuries
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Castro | RP | Shoulder | Expected to be out until at least Jul 10 |
Atlanta Braves
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Laureano | RF | Oblique | Expected to be out until at least Jul 19 |
Betting Trends
- Arizona is 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- Atlanta is 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- Arizona’s games have gone over the total in 6 of their last 10 games.
- Atlanta’s games have gone over the total in 5 of their last 10 games.
- Arizona is 22-23 at home this season.
- Atlanta is 22-22 on the road this season.
- Arizona has a 4.63 team ERA, ranking 28th in the league.
- Atlanta has a 3.40 team ERA, ranking 2nd in the league.
- Arizona’s bullpen has blown 10 saves this season.
- Atlanta’s bullpen has blown 5 saves this season.
Recent Games
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Atlanta | 2-6 | L |
| vs Atlanta | 4-5 | L |
| @ San Diego | 9-1 | W |
| @ San Diego | 7-5 | W |
| @ San Diego | 10-8 | L |
Atlanta Braves
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Arizona | 6-2 | W |
| @ Arizona | 5-4 | W |
| vs Philadelphia | 6-0 | W |
| vs Philadelphia | 5-1 | W |
| vs Philadelphia | 8-6 | L |
Team Rankings
| Category | Arizona Diamondbacks | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 8th | 17th |
| Starting Pitching | 28th | 2nd |
| Relief Pitching | 24th | 8th |
| Fielding | 27th | 30th |
Significant Betting Stats
- Arizona is 4-6 in their last 10 games.
- Atlanta is 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- Arizona’s games have gone over the total in 6 of their last 10 games.
- Atlanta’s games have gone over the total in 5 of their last 10 games.
- Max Fried has a 3.18 ERA this season.
- Brandon Pfaadt has a 4.19 ERA this season.
- Arizona ranks 8th in hits this season.
- Atlanta ranks 2nd in team ERA this season.
- Arizona’s bullpen has blown 10 saves this season.
- Atlanta’s bullpen has blown 5 saves this season.
Weather
The weather for the game at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, is expected to be mostly cloudy with a high temperature of 110°F. However, since the game will be played indoors, weather conditions will not affect the gameplay.
Prediction
Pick: Over 8.0 runs
The over/under line for this game is set at 8.0 runs. Given Arizona’s strong hitting and Atlanta’s solid offense, coupled with the fact that both teams have had games going over the total in recent matches, the over seems like a solid bet. Additionally, both starting pitchers have respectable ERAs but are not invincible, which could lead to a higher-scoring game.
