MLB Total Best Bets: Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays 7/27
- Mr Wager
- Jul 26, 2024, 11:17:51 PM
MLB Total Best Bets: Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays 7/27
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Game Summary
The Texas Rangers will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on July 27th. This matchup promises to be exciting as both teams are looking to improve their standings in their respective divisions. The Rangers, currently holding a 47-56 record, have struggled both at home and on the road. On the other hand, the Blue Jays have a slightly better record at 51-53, performing better at home with a 29-23 record.
Kevin Gausman will be taking the mound for the Blue Jays, boasting a rather inconsistent season with an 8-8 record and a 4.55 ERA. The Rangers will counter with Michael Lorenzen, who has been slightly more effective with a 5-5 record and a 3.53 ERA. With both teams having their ups and downs, the stage is set for a thrilling encounter.
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Odds and Betting Lines
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | -115 |
| Under 8.5 | -105 |
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Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzen (TEX) | 5-5 | 3.53 | 73 | 1.24 |
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | 8-8 | 4.55 | 109 | 1.30 |
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Team Previews
Texas Rangers
Hitting: The Rangers have struggled offensively, ranking 27th in hits (788) and runs (410). Their team batting average sits at .235, ranking 21st. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a bright spot with a .297 average, 18 home runs, and 62 RBIs.
Relief Pitching: The Rangers' bullpen has recorded 24 saves, placing them tied for 19th in the league. However, their overall team ERA of 4.54 ranks 27th, indicating struggles in limiting opponent scoring.
Fielding: Defensively, the Rangers have committed 57 errors, which ranks them tied for 11th in the league. This inconsistency in the field has contributed to their struggles this season.
Starting Pitchers: Michael Lorenzen has been a standout in the rotation with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 97 innings pitched. His 5-5 record reflects the team's overall struggles despite his solid performances.
Toronto Blue Jays
Hitting: The Blue Jays have performed better offensively, ranking 16th in hits (830) and 18th in runs (441). Their team batting average of .240 ranks 18th. Josh Smith leads the team with a .286 average, while Corey Seager has contributed 19 home runs.
Relief Pitching: The Blue Jays' bullpen has recorded 22 saves, ranking 24th. Their team ERA of 3.97 ranks 16th, indicating a more stable pitching staff compared to the Rangers.
Fielding: Defensively, the Blue Jays have committed 45 errors, ranking 27th. This has been a significant area of concern for the team throughout the season.
Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman has had an up-and-down season with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 110.2 innings pitched. His 8-8 record is a reflection of the team's overall inconsistency.
Team Injuries
Texas Rangers
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | SP | Elbow | Expected to be out until at least Aug 4 |
Toronto Blue Jays
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 2B | Knee | Expected to be out until at least Jul 31 |
Betting Trends
- Rangers are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 6-2 in Blue Jays last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Recent Games
Texas Rangers
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Baltimore | 1-9 | L |
| vs Baltimore | 4-8 | L |
| vs Baltimore | 3-2 | W |
| vs Chicago | 4-3 | W |
| vs Chicago | 3-2 | W |
Toronto Blue Jays
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Detroit | 4-5 | L |
| vs Detroit | 3-7 | L |
| vs Detroit | 5-4 | W |
| vs Tampa Bay | 2-4 | L |
| vs Tampa Bay | 6-3 | W |
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Team Rankings
| Category | Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 27th | 16th |
| Starting Pitching | 27th (ERA: 4.54) | 16th (ERA: 3.97) |
| Relief Pitching | 19th (Saves: 24) | 24th (Saves: 22) |
| Fielding | 11th (Errors: 57) | 27th (Errors: 45) |
Significant Betting Stats
- Rangers are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 6-2 in Blue Jays last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Blue Jays are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Toronto.
- Rangers are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win.
- Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 games as an underdog.
Weather
The game will be played indoors at Rogers Centre, so weather conditions will not affect the game.
Prediction
This game features two teams with inconsistent pitching and varying offensive capabilities. With Michael Lorenzen and Kevin Gausman on the mound, both of whom have had their ups and downs this season, the total of 8.5 runs seems to be a reasonable line. The Rangers have shown they can hit, especially against teams with a losing record, while the Blue Jays have struggled at home recently. Given the trends and the starting pitchers' performances, the over 8.5 runs is a solid pick for this matchup.
Pick: Over 8.5 runs
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