MLB Spread Predictions and Picks: Marlins vs Mets - 7/19

- Lm Tipster
- Jul 18, 2024, 4:42:16 PM
© Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
MLB Spread Predictions and Picks: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets

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Game Summary
The Miami Marlins are set to face off against the New York Mets on July 19 at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. This game promises to be an interesting contest as both teams are looking to improve their standings. The Marlins have had a rough season so far, with a record of 33-63, placing them at the bottom of their division. On the other hand, the Mets have performed relatively better with a record of 49-46, keeping them in the playoff hunt.
Marlins are struggling both offensively and defensively, ranking 29th in runs scored and 29th in ERA. Their top performer, Bryan De La Cruz, leads the team in home runs and RBIs, but the supporting cast hasn’t been able to provide enough firepower. The Mets, however, have been more balanced, ranking 8th in runs scored and 22nd in ERA. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have been standout performers, contributing significantly to the Mets' offensive efforts.
This game is crucial for both teams. The Marlins will look to turn their fortunes around at home, while the Mets will aim to solidify their playoff position. The pitching matchup features Sean Manaea for the Mets, who has a respectable record of 6-3 with a 3.46 ERA. The Marlins' starting pitcher is yet to be determined, which adds an element of unpredictability to the game.
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Odds and Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over/Under | O/U 8.5 |
| Miami Marlins Spread | +1.5 (-146) |
| New York Mets Spread | -1.5 (+122) |
| Miami Marlins Moneyline | +150 |
| New York Mets Moneyline | -170 |
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Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts | Walks | Innings Pitched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 6-3 | 3.46 | 96 | 40 | 96.1 |
| Undecided (MIA) | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
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Team Previews
Miami Marlins
Hitting: The Marlins have struggled offensively this season, ranking 29th in runs scored with only 336 runs. Their batting average of .234 places them 25th in the league. Bryan De La Cruz has been a bright spot with 16 home runs and 44 RBIs, but the team lacks depth in its lineup.
Relief Pitching: Miami's bullpen has also been a weak point, with a 4.60 ERA, ranking 29th in the league. They have managed only 16 saves, the fewest in the MLB.
Fielding: Defensively, the Marlins have committed 66 errors, ranking 2nd in the league. Their defensive struggles have compounded their issues on the mound.
Starting Pitchers: The Marlins' starting rotation has been inconsistent. Braxton Garrett, who is currently injured, was one of their better pitchers. The team is yet to announce the starter for this game, adding to the uncertainty.
New York Mets
Hitting: The Mets have a more potent offense, scoring 465 runs (8th in the league) with a team batting average of .250 (10th). Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been key contributors, providing power and run production.
Relief Pitching: The Mets' bullpen has been better, with a 4.23 ERA, ranking 22nd. They have converted 25 saves, placing them mid-pack in the league.
Fielding: Defensively, the Mets have committed 64 errors, ranking 3rd. While not elite, their defense has been more reliable compared to the Marlins.
Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea has been solid with a 3.46 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 96.1 innings. The Mets' rotation has been more stable and effective compared to the Marlins.
Team Injuries
Miami Marlins
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | SP | Forearm | Expected to be out until at least Jul 29 |
| Sixto Sanchez | RP | Shoulder | Expected to be out until at least Aug 5 |
| Josh Simpson | RP | Elbow | Expected to be out until at least Jul 31 |
New York Mets
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | SP | Shoulder | Expected to be out until at least Jul 25 |
Betting Trends
- The Marlins are 42-54 against the spread this season.
- The Mets are 49-46 against the spread this season.
- The Marlins have hit the over in 50 out of 96 games this season.
- The Mets have hit the over in 52 out of 95 games this season.
- The Marlins are 18-31 at home this season.
- The Mets are 26-26 on the road this season.
- The Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- The Mets are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- The Marlins have a 4-6 record in their last 10 home games.
- The Mets have a 5-5 record in their last 10 road games.
Recent Games
Miami Marlins
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Washington | 3-5 | L |
| vs Washington | 2-4 | L |
| vs Washington | 7-3 | W |
| @ Atlanta | 1-6 | L |
| @ Atlanta | 3-2 | W |
New York Mets
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Pittsburgh | 7-5 | W |
| @ Pittsburgh | 4-2 | W |
| @ Pittsburgh | 3-1 | L |
| vs Chicago | 8-3 | W |
| vs Chicago | 2-5 | L |
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Team Rankings
| Category | Miami Marlins | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 29th | 8th |
| Starting Pitching | 29th | 22nd |
| Relief Pitching | 30th | 14th |
| Fielding | 2nd | 3rd |
Significant Betting Stats
- The Marlins are 42-54 against the spread this season.
- The Mets are 49-46 against the spread this season.
- The Marlins have hit the over in 50 out of 96 games this season.
- The Mets have hit the over in 52 out of 95 games this season.
- The Marlins are 18-31 at home this season.
- The Mets are 26-26 on the road this season.
- The Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
- The Mets are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- The Marlins have a 4-6 record in their last 10 home games.
- The Mets have a 5-5 record in their last 10 road games.
Weather
The weather at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida on July 19 is expected to be mostly sunny with a temperature of 88°F. Since the game is being played indoors, weather conditions will not affect the game.
Prediction
Pick: New York Mets to cover -1.5
The New York Mets are the stronger team in this matchup, both offensively and defensively. With Sean Manaea on the mound, they have a reliable starter who can limit the Marlins' struggling offense. The Marlins have been inconsistent and have not been able to perform well at home. Given the Mets' better overall performance and the Marlins' ongoing struggles, the Mets are likely to cover the -1.5 spread.
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