MLB Spread Picks Tonight: Brewers vs Twins 7/21

- Big Ben Profits
- Jul 20, 2024, 8:48:00 PM
MLB Spread Picks Tonight: Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins 7/21
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Game Summary
The Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins are set to clash at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota on July 21. Both teams have had a solid season so far, with the Brewers holding a record of 54-42 and the Twins slightly ahead at 55-42. This game promises to be a competitive matchup, as both teams are vying for higher positions in their respective divisions. Milwaukee has been strong both at home (27-18) and on the road (27-24), while Minnesota boasts an impressive home record of 29-17.
On the mound for the Brewers will be Joe Ryan, who has been a reliable starter with a 6-6 record and a 3.53 ERA. Opposing him will be Aaron Civale for the Twins, who has struggled this season with a 2-7 record and a 4.94 ERA. Offensively, both teams have been productive, with the Brewers ranking 7th in batting average (.254) and 7th in runs scored (466). The Twins are slightly better with a .255 batting average (6th) and the same number of runs scored (466).
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Odds and Betting Lines
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Milwaukee Brewers Spread | +1.5 (-170) |
| Minnesota Twins Spread | -1.5 (+140) |
| Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline | +130 |
| Minnesota Twins Moneyline | -150 |
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Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan (MIL) | 6-6 | 3.53 | 124 | 1.00 |
| Aaron Civale (MIN) | 2-7 | 4.94 | 98 | 1.38 |
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Team Previews
Milwaukee Brewers
Hitting: The Brewers have been effective at the plate, with Carlos Correa leading the team with a .308 batting average. Ryan Jeffers has provided power with 14 home runs, while Correa also leads in RBIs with 47. The team ranks 7th in batting average (.254) and 7th in runs scored (466).
Relief Pitching: The Brewers' bullpen has been solid, recording 29 saves, which is tied for 6th in the league. They have a team ERA of 4.11, ranking 18th overall.
Fielding: Defensively, the Brewers have committed 45 errors, ranking 25th in the league. Their fielding percentage reflects room for improvement.
Starting Pitchers: Joe Ryan has been a standout performer with a 6-6 record and a 3.53 ERA, striking out 124 batters. The Brewers' rotation has been reliable, contributing to their overall success this season.
Minnesota Twins
Hitting: The Twins have been slightly better offensively, with Christian Yelich leading the team with a .326 batting average. Willy Adames has hit 15 home runs and driven in 67 RBIs, making him a key player in their lineup. The team ranks 6th in batting average (.255) and 7th in runs scored (466).
Relief Pitching: The Twins' bullpen has been exceptional, recording 32 saves, which is 3rd in the league. They have a team ERA of 3.81, ranking 11th overall.
Fielding: The Twins have committed 51 errors, which ranks them 15th in the league. Their fielding has been steady, contributing to their competitive edge.
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Civale has struggled with a 2-7 record and a 4.94 ERA. The Twins' starting rotation has been inconsistent, which could be a concern against the Brewers.
Team Injuries
Milwaukee Brewers
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ross | SP | Back | Expected to be out until at least Jul 24 |
Minnesota Twins
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | SS | Heel | Probable for Jul 20 |
Betting Trends
- Brewers are 5-2 in their last 7 games.
- Brewers are 6-3 in their last 9 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Brewers' last 5 games.
- Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
- Over is 6-2 in Twins' last 8 games.
Recent Games
Milwaukee Brewers
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Minnesota | 4-3 | W |
| @ Minnesota | 3-5 | L |
| @ Chicago | 5-2 | W |
| @ Chicago | 3-6 | L |
| vs Miami | 2-1 | W |
Minnesota Twins
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Milwaukee | 3-4 | L |
| vs Milwaukee | 5-3 | W |
| vs Philadelphia | 6-2 | W |
| vs Philadelphia | 4-5 | L |
| vs Philadelphia | 7-1 | W |
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Team Rankings
| Category | Milwaukee Brewers | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 7th | 6th |
| Starting Pitching | 18th | 11th |
| Relief Pitching | 6th | 3rd |
| Fielding | 25th | 15th |
Significant Betting Stats
- Brewers are 5-2 in their last 7 games.
- Brewers are 6-3 in their last 9 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Brewers' last 5 games.
- Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
- Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
- Over is 6-2 in Twins' last 8 games.
- Joe Ryan has a 3.53 ERA this season.
- Christian Yelich leads the Twins with a .326 batting average.
- Twins bullpen ranks 3rd in the league with 32 saves.
- Brewers are 7th in runs scored with 466.
Weather
The weather at Target Field in Minneapolis is expected to be intermittent clouds with a temperature of 76°F. This should provide favorable conditions for both teams to perform at their best.
Prediction
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-170)
Given the current form and pitching matchups, the Milwaukee Brewers are likely to cover the spread of +1.5. Joe Ryan has been a reliable starter, and the Brewers' offense has been consistent. While the Twins have been strong at home, Aaron Civale's struggles on the mound could give the Brewers an edge. Betting on the Brewers to cover the +1.5 spread provides a safer option with favorable odds.
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