MLB Spread Picks and Odds: Braves vs Padres 7/12
- Mr Wager
- Jul 11, 2024, 3:58:05 PM
MLB Spread Picks and Odds: Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres 7/12
Game Summary
On July 12, the Atlanta Braves will face off against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California. The Braves, currently holding a 49-47 record, are looking to improve their standing in the East Division. Meanwhile, the Padres boast a stronger record of 51-40 and are aiming to maintain their competitive edge in the West Division.
The Braves have shown impressive hitting capabilities, ranking first in hits (850) and second in batting average (.261), led by Jurickson Profar who has an average of .311. Their pitching, however, has been inconsistent, with a team ERA of 4.17, ranking them 20th in the league. Randy Vasquez, who will be starting for the Braves, has a mixed record of 2-4 with an ERA of 4.66.
The Padres, on the other hand, have been solid both offensively and defensively. They rank 17th in hits (746) and 18th in batting average (.243), with Marcell Ozuna leading the charge with a .296 average and 24 home runs. Their pitching staff has been a strength, with a team ERA of 3.44, which is the second-best in the league. Spencer Schwellenbach will take the mound for the Padres, carrying a 2-4 record and a 5.02 ERA.
Odds and Betting Lines
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Spread | Braves -1.5 (+122) / Padres +1.5 (-146) |
| Moneyline | Braves -120 / Padres +100 |
Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Schwellenbach (SD) | 2-4 | 5.02 | 1.27 | 37.2 | 39 | 38 | 9 | 4 |
| Randy Vasquez (ATL) | 2-4 | 4.66 | 1.60 | 58.0 | 79 | 38 | 14 | 11 |
Team Previews
Atlanta Braves
Hitting: The Braves lead the league in hits with 850 and rank second in batting average at .261. Jurickson Profar is the standout performer with a .311 average, 14 home runs, and 59 RBIs.
Relief Pitching: The Braves have 24 saves, which ranks them tied for 12th in the league. Their bullpen has been reliable in close games.
Fielding: The Braves have committed 48 errors, placing them tied for 15th in the league. Their defense is solid but not spectacular.
Starting Pitchers: Randy Vasquez will be on the mound with a 4.66 ERA and a 2-4 record. He has struggled with consistency, allowing 79 hits in 58 innings.
San Diego Padres
Hitting: The Padres have accumulated 746 hits, ranking them 17th. Their team batting average is .243, with Marcell Ozuna leading the way with a .296 average, 24 home runs, and 75 RBIs.
Relief Pitching: With 25 saves, the Padres are ranked 11th in the league. Their bullpen has been a key factor in their success this season.
Fielding: The Padres have committed 38 errors, ranking them 30th in the league. Their defense has been a weak spot.
Starting Pitchers: Spencer Schwellenbach will start for the Padres with a 5.02 ERA and a 2-4 record. He has shown potential but has also been inconsistent.
Team Injuries
Atlanta Braves
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Laureano | RF | Oblique | Expected to be out until at least Jul 19 |
San Diego Padres
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wandy Peralta | RP | Groin | Probable for Jul 11 |
| Fernando Tatis | RF | Quadriceps | Expected to be out until at least Jul 26 |
| Glenn Otto | RP | Shoulder | Expected to be out until at least Jul 12 |
Betting Trends
- Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
- Padres are 8-3 in their last 11 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves' last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-2 in Padres' last 7 home games against a team with a winning record.
Recent Games
Atlanta Braves
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | W5-1 | W |
| Philadelphia | W6-0 | W |
| Arizona | W5-4 (F/11) | W |
| Arizona | W6-2 | W |
| Arizona | L7-5 | L |
San Diego Padres
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | L7-5 (F/10) | L |
| Arizona | L9-1 | L |
| Seattle | L8-3 | L |
| Seattle | L2-0 | L |
| Atlanta | Scheduled | - |
Team Rankings
| Category | Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1st | 17th |
| Starting Pitching | 20th | 2nd |
| Relief Pitching | 12th | 11th |
| Fielding | 15th | 30th |
Significant Betting Stats
- Braves are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Padres are 8-3 in their last 11 home games.
- Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves' last 5 road games.
- Under is 5-2 in Padres' last 7 home games.
- Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 games against right-handed starters.
- Padres are 3-7 in their last 10 games against left-handed starters.
- Braves' pitchers have a 4.17 ERA, ranking 20th in the league.
- Padres' pitchers have a 3.44 ERA, ranking 2nd in the league.
Weather
The weather forecast for the game at Petco Park is mostly sunny with a temperature of 75°F. This pleasant weather should provide ideal conditions for the game.
Prediction
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+122)
The Atlanta Braves have been performing well on the road recently, and their hitting prowess gives them an edge over the Padres. While the Padres have a strong pitching staff, the inconsistency of Spencer Schwellenbach and the Braves' ability to produce runs make the Braves a favorable pick to cover the -1.5 spread. Additionally, the Braves' recent form and the Padres' struggles against left-handed pitchers further support this pick.
Photo Credit: © Owen Ziliak/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
