MLB Spread Handicapping: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates - 7/28
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MLB Spread Handicapping: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates - 7/28

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MLB Spread Handicapping: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates - 7/28

Game Summary

The Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 28, 2024, at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. This matchup features the Diamondbacks, who currently hold a record of 55-50, and the Pirates, who are at 52-52. Both teams have shown competitive spirit throughout the season, with the Diamondbacks sitting in a slightly more favorable position in the standings compared to the Pirates.

The Diamondbacks have been relatively strong at home with a record of 28-24, while the Pirates have shown equal prowess on the road with a 26-26 record. In their recent encounters, the Diamondbacks have managed to secure victories against the Pirates, winning the last two matchups, which could give them a psychological edge going into this game.

On the mound, the Pirates will start Mitch Keller, who boasts a solid 10-5 record with a 3.34 ERA and has been a reliable presence for the team. In contrast, the Diamondbacks will send out Yilber Diaz, who has struggled with a 1-1 record and a 5.40 ERA. This pitching matchup heavily favors Keller, making it crucial for the Diamondbacks to provide strong offensive support to complement Diaz’s performance.

The weather forecast indicates mostly sunny conditions with a high temperature of 101°F, which could impact player fatigue and overall game dynamics. Both teams will need to strategize effectively to capitalize on their strengths while mitigating the heat's effects on performance.

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Odds and Betting Lines

Bet Type Odds
Over/Under Not Available
Arizona Diamondbacks Spread -1.5 (+154)
Pittsburgh Pirates Spread +1.5 (-128)
Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline Not Available
Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline Not Available

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Pitching Probables

Pitcher W-L ERA WHIP IP H K BB HR
Mitch Keller (PIT) 10-5 3.34 1.24 121.1 119 108 32 13
Yilber Diaz (ARI) 1-1 5.40 1.40 15.0 17 7 4 2

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Team Previews

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks have shown a potent offense this season, ranking 3rd in runs with 513 scored and showcasing a .253 batting average, which ranks 8th in the league. Their leading hitter, Ketel Marte, has been outstanding, batting .296 with 23 home runs and 71 RBIs. The team has demonstrated resilience at home, particularly with a solid performance in their past few games.

Pitching has been a mixed bag for the Diamondbacks, with a team ERA of 4.49. Yilber Diaz, although still developing, has the potential to improve with more experience. However, his current stats show that he is vulnerable, which could be a concern against a competitive Pirates lineup.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have had a challenging season, sitting in the middle of the pack offensively with only 425 runs scored, ranking 23rd in the league. They have a team batting average of .232, which is 25th overall. Oneil Cruz leads the team with a .252 average and 16 home runs. Despite their struggles, they have shown flashes of brilliance, especially in their recent games.

On the pitching front, the Pirates have been performing decently with a team ERA of 3.78, ranked 11th in the league. Mitch Keller has been a significant contributor to this success, demonstrating the ability to limit runs and keep his team competitive. His experience and current form will be essential in this matchup.

Team Injuries

Arizona Diamondbacks

Player Name Position Injury Injury Status
Merrill Kelly SP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Aug 16

Pittsburgh Pirates

Player Name Position Injury Injury Status
Nick Gonzales 2B Groin Probable for Jul 28
Rowdy Tellez 1B Back Probable for Jul 28
Jared Jones SP Lat Expected to be out until at least Aug 8

Betting Trends

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 games against the Pirates.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Diamondbacks' last 5 games.
  • The Pirates are 2-5 in their last 7 games overall.
  • The Diamondbacks are 8-4 in their last 12 home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Pirates' last 5 games.

Recent Games

Arizona Diamondbacks Recent Games

Opponent Score W/L
@ Chicago W5-2 W
@ Chicago W3-0 W
vs Pittsburgh W4-3 W
vs Pittsburgh W9-5 W
@ Kansas City L10-4 L

Pittsburgh Pirates Recent Games

Opponent Score W/L
vs Philadelphia W8-7 W
vs Philadelphia W4-1 W
vs St. Louis W5-0 W
@ Arizona L4-3 L
@ Arizona L9-5 L

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Team Rankings

Team Hitting Starting Pitching Relief Pitching Fielding
Arizona Diamondbacks 3rd 26th Tied-19th 30th
Pittsburgh Pirates 23rd 11th Tied-14th Tied-21st

Significant Betting Stats

  • The Diamondbacks are 54-50 against the spread this season.
  • Pittsburgh is 52-52 against the spread this season.
  • Arizona has scored an average of 5.12 runs per game at home.
  • Pittsburgh has allowed an average of 4.29 runs per game on the road.
  • Arizona has a 12-6 record when favored by 1.5 runs this season.
  • The Pirates are 5-10 against the spread as underdogs of 1.5 runs.
  • The total has gone over in 60% of Arizona's games this season.
  • Pittsburgh has a 45% success rate on overs this season.
  • Arizona is 25-14 in day games this season.
  • Pittsburgh has lost 7 of their last 10 games against teams with winning records.

Weather

Weather: Mostly sunny, temperature at 101°F.

Prediction

The Arizona Diamondbacks are favored to win this matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, primarily due to their strong offensive capabilities and the pitching advantage that Mitch Keller offers. Given the current form of both teams and the Diamondbacks' home advantage, they are likely to cover the spread of -1.5. The Pirates, while competitive, have struggled against teams with winning records and will need to rely heavily on Keller's performance to stay in this game. Therefore, our pick is:

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5

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