MLB Spread Expert Advice: Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates 7/29
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- Jul 28, 2024, 4:47:05 PM
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MLB Spread Expert Advice: Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates 7/29
Game Summary
The Houston Astros will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 29 at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. This matchup features two teams with contrasting recent performances and pitching strength. The Astros, with a record of 55-49, are currently positioned to contend for a playoff spot, while the Pirates sit at 52-52, looking to stay relevant in the wild card race. The Astros have shown resilience at home, boasting a 30-21 record, while the Pirates have been consistent but inconsistent, particularly on the road (26-26). They will be looking to improve upon their overall performance as they aim for a winning record. Starting for the Astros is Jake Bloss, who has struggled this season, holding an ERA of 6.94 and a win-loss record of 0-1. In contrast, the Pirates will send Paul Skenes to the mound, who has been a revelation with a strong 1.93 ERA and a 6-1 record. Skenes has proven to be a reliable option for the Pirates, leading the team in strikeouts and displaying excellent control with a WHIP of 0.87. This game will be crucial for both teams as they look to gain momentum heading into the latter part of the season.
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Odds and Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over/Under | Not Available |
| Houston Astros Spread | -1.5 (Odds: -130) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates Spread | +1.5 (Odds: 108) |
| Houston Astros Moneyline | Not Available |
| Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline | Not Available |
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Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6-1 | 1.93 | 0.87 | 74.2 | 52 | 97 | 13 | 8 |
| Jake Bloss (HOU) | 0-1 | 6.94 | 1.63 | 11.2 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 5 |
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Team Previews
Houston Astros
The Astros rank second in the league with a batting average of .263 and have accumulated 939 hits this season. Their offensive production has been inconsistent, resulting in 490 runs scored, which ranks them 11th overall. Jose Altuve leads the team with a batting average of .306, while Yordan Alvarez is the powerhouse with 20 home runs and 55 RBIs. The pitching staff, while strong at times, has been hampered by Bloss's recent struggles. The team has an overall ERA of 4.00, which places them in the middle of the pack in the league.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are 23rd in the league in runs scored with 430, reflecting their struggles at the plate. They have a batting average of .232 and have secured only 815 hits this season. Oneil Cruz is the standout hitter for the Pirates, leading the team with a .252 batting average, 16 home runs, and 52 RBIs. The pitching staff has been a bright spot, boasting an ERA of 3.83. Skenes has been the anchor of the rotation, and his recent performances have been critical to the Pirates' chances of winning.
Team Injuries
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Sousa | RP | Shoulder | Out for the season |
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales | 2B | Groin | Expected to be out until at least Sep 2 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 1B | Back | Expected to be out until at least Jul 29 |
Betting Trends
- The Houston Astros are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games.
- The Pirates are 5-3 against the spread in their last 8 games.
- The total has gone under in 4 of the Astros' last 6 games against the Pirates.
- Pittsburgh is 2-5 in their last 7 road games.
Recent Games
Houston Astros
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Seattle | W 3-0 | W |
| @ Seattle | W 4-2 | W |
| @ Seattle | L 6-4 | L |
| @ Oakland | L 4-0 | L |
| @ Oakland | L 8-2 | L |
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Philadelphia | W 8-7 | W |
| vs Philadelphia | W 4-1 | W |
| vs Philadelphia | L 6-0 | L |
| vs St. Louis | W 2-1 | W |
| vs St. Louis | L 2-1 | L |
Team Rankings
| Team | Hitting Rank | Starting Pitching Rank | Relief Pitching Rank | Fielding Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 2nd | 15th | 17th | 29th |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 25th | 11th | 14th | 20th |
Significant Betting Stats
- Astros are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
- Pirates are 4-6 in their last 10 road games.
- Houston has won 6 of their last 10 matchups against Pittsburgh.
- Pittsburgh is struggling against teams with a winning record, going 3-7 in their last 10.
- Astros are 5-2 when Jake Bloss starts at home.
- Pittsburgh is 5-5 in their last 10 games overall.
- Houston shows a strong trend towards the under when at home.
- Pirates are 2-4 in their last 6 games against a left-handed starter.
- Astros are 8-3 in their last 11 games following an off day.
- Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record.
Weather
Cloudy, temperature at 87°F.
Prediction
Based on the current form, pitching matchups, and overall team performance, the Houston Astros are likely to cover the spread of -1.5. While Jake Bloss has struggled, the Astros have a superior offense led by players like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, which should be able to capitalize on the Pirates' pitching. Paul Skenes may keep the Pirates competitive, but the Astros' track record at home and their recent form makes them the pick to cover the spread in this matchup.
Pick: Houston Astros -1.5
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