MLB Spread Bet Advice: Brewers vs Pirates - 7/11

MLB Spread Bet Advice: Brewers vs Pirates - 7/11

© Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

 

MLB Spread Bet Advice: Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates - 7/11

 

Game Summary

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 11 at the American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. This matchup features two teams from the National League Central, with the Milwaukee Brewers currently holding a stronger position in the standings with a 53-39 overall record, compared to the Pirates' 44-47 record. The Brewers have been particularly strong at home with a 27-14 record, while the Pirates have struggled slightly on the road at 22-23. The Brewers' offense is anchored by William Contreras, who leads the team with a .296 batting average, and Willy Adames, who has contributed 13 home runs and 58 RBIs. On the mound, Aaron Civale will look to improve on his 2-6 record and 5.18 ERA. The Pirates will counter with their ace, Paul Skenes, who boasts a 5-0 record and a 2.12 ERA. Bryan Reynolds has been a bright spot for the Pirates' offense, leading the team with a .280 average and 17 home runs. This game will be a crucial one for both teams as they look to improve their standings and build momentum for the second half of the season. The Brewers will aim to leverage their home-field advantage, while the Pirates will look to their ace to deliver a strong performance on the road.


Odds and Betting Lines

Market Odds
Over/Under 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers Spread -1.5 (-150)
Pittsburgh Pirates Spread +1.5 (+125)
Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline -150
Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline +125


Pitching Probables

Pitcher W-L ERA Strikeouts
Aaron Civale (MIL) 2-6 5.18 92
Paul Skenes (PIT) 5-0 2.12 78


Team Previews

Milwaukee Brewers 

Hitting:

The Brewers' offense is led by William Contreras, who is batting .296 on the season. Willy Adames has been a key power contributor with 13 home runs and 58 RBIs. Overall, the team ranks 5th in the league in batting average (.255) and 8th in runs scored (441). -

**Relief Pitching:**

The Brewers' bullpen has been solid, ranking 3rd in saves with 32. They have a collective ERA of 3.85, which is 11th in the league. - **Fielding:** Defensively, the Brewers have committed 48 errors, placing them 15th in the league. - **Starting Pitchers:** Aaron Civale will start for the Brewers. He has struggled this season with a 5.18 ERA and a 2-6 record. Despite these struggles, he has managed 92 strikeouts over 92 innings.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates -

**Hitting:** Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with a .280 batting average and 17 home runs. However, the team overall has struggled offensively, ranking 23rd in batting average (.231) and 20th in runs scored (382). 

**Relief Pitching:**

The Pirates' bullpen ranks 15th in saves with 23 and has a collective ERA of 3.88, which is 12th in the league. 

Fielding:

Defensively, the Pirates have committed 47 errors, placing them 16th in the league. -

Starting Pitchers:

Paul Skenes has been the standout for the Pirates with a perfect 5-0 record and a 2.12 ERA this season. He has struck out 78 batters in 59.1 innings pitched.


Team Injuries

Milwaukee Brewers

Player Name Position Injury Injury Status
Gary Sanchez DH Calf Expected to be out until at least Jul 10
J.B. Bukauskas RP Triceps Expected to be out until at least Jul 10

Pittsburgh Pirates

Player Name Position Injury Injury Status
Ryan Borucki RP Wrist Expected to be out until at least Jul 10


Betting Trends 

Milwaukee Brewers:

The Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a home favorite. - Milwaukee is 7-3 in their last 10 games against right-handed starters. -

Pittsburgh Pirates:

The Pirates are 4-6 in their last 10 games as an underdog. - Pittsburgh is 5-5 in their last 10 road games.


Recent Games 

Milwaukee Brewers

Opponent Score W/L
@ Los Angeles W 9-2 W
vs Pittsburgh L 12-2 L
@ Los Angeles L 5-3 L
@ Los Angeles L 8-5 L
@ Colorado L 4-3 L

Pittsburgh Pirates

Opponent Score W/L
@ Milwaukee W 12-2 W
vs New York L 3-2 L
vs New York L 5-2 L
vs New York W 8-2 W
@ Atlanta L 2-1 L


Team Rankings

Category Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates
Hitting 5th 23rd
Starting Pitching 11th 12th
Relief Pitching 3rd 15th
Fielding 15th 16th


Significant Betting Stats 

The Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 home games. - Milwaukee is 6-2 in their last 8 games as a favorite. - The Brewers' Over/Under is 4-6 in their last 10 games. - Pittsburgh is 4-6 in their last 10 games on the road. - The Pirates are 5-5 in their last 10 games against right-handed pitchers. - Pittsburgh's Over/Under is 5-5 in their last 10 games. - The Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 games when scoring first. - Milwaukee has a 9-1 record in their last 10 games when leading after 7 innings. - The Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10 games when trailing after 7 innings. - The Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.


Weather

**Milwaukee, WI:** Mostly sunny with a high of 78°F. 


Prediction

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers to cover -1.5**
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The Brewers have been strong at home and have a solid offense led by William Contreras and Willy Adames. Although Aaron Civale has struggled, the Brewers' bullpen is capable of closing out games effectively. The Pirates, despite Paul Skenes' impressive numbers, have been inconsistent on the road. Given Milwaukee's home-field advantage and offensive strength, they are likely to cover the -1.5 spread.

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