MLB Spread Bet Advice: Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners

- A Plus Picks
- Jul 28, 2024, 4:35:01 PM
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MLB Spread Bet Advice: Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners
Game Summary
The Boston Red Sox are set to face off against the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park on July 29. This matchup features two teams that are currently tied in their overall records, both at 55 wins and 48 losses. The Red Sox have shown a slight edge at home with a record of 25-26, while the Mariners hold a stronger 31-23 at home but have struggled on the road, posting a 24-28 record. The Red Sox will be sending Nick Pivetta to the mound, who has a record of 4-7 and an ERA of 4.50 this season. Meanwhile, the Mariners will counter with Logan Gilbert, boasting a more impressive 6-6 record and an ERA of 2.72, making him one of the top pitchers in the league this season. Fenway Park, known for its iconic Green Monster and lively atmosphere, is expected to host a thrilling game. The weather is set to be cloudy with temperatures reaching around 81°F, potentially impacting gameplay, especially with the ball carrying differently in humid conditions. Historically, the Red Sox have had success against the Mariners, but recent performances indicate a competitive series ahead. This game is pivotal for both teams as they push for playoff positioning in the competitive AL East and West divisions. Fans can expect a tightly contested game, with pitching being a key factor in determining the winner.
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Odds and Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over/Under | N/A |
| Boston Red Sox Spread | +1.5 (-184) |
| Seattle Mariners Spread | -1.5 (+152) |
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Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert (SEA) | 6-6 | 2.72 | 0.86 | 139.0 | 132 | 26 | 15 |
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 4-7 | 4.50 | 1.18 | 84.0 | 102 | 21 | 15 |
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Team Previews
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have been a formidable hitting team this season, ranking 3rd in the MLB with 924 hits and 8th with 497 runs scored. They maintain a batting average of .258. Key players include Rafael Devers, who leads the team with a batting average of .294, 23 home runs, and 64 RBIs. The Red Sox's lineup is capable of producing runs, but their pitching has been inconsistent. Nick Pivetta has had a rough season, struggling with consistency and allowing a WHIP of 1.18. The bullpen has also been a point of concern, with 27 saves on the season, ranking tied for 11th in the league. In their defensive play, the Red Sox have committed 75 errors, putting them at a disadvantage at times. However, their offensive prowess can often compensate for these lapses. Home games at Fenway Park typically see higher run totals due to the park's unique dimensions, which could play a role in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have struggled offensively, ranking last in the MLB with just 753 hits and 406 runs scored, leading to a batting average of .218. This is a stark contrast to their pitching, which has been among the best in the league, boasting a 3.36 ERA, the best in MLB. Logan Gilbert is a prime example of their strong pitching staff, highlighted by his low ERA and WHIP of 0.86, indicating his ability to keep hitters off balance. The Mariners do have some power in their lineup, with Cal Raleigh leading the team with 21 home runs and 63 RBIs. Their bullpen has also been effective, recording 28 saves, ranking tied for 9th. The Mariners' defensive metrics show some weaknesses, with 59 errors this season. This series provides them an opportunity to improve their offensive output against a struggling Pivetta and to capitalize on any mistakes made by the Red Sox.
Team Injuries
Boston Red Sox
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vaughn Grissom | 2B | Hamstring | Expected to be out until at least Aug 9 |
Seattle Mariners
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo | SP | Hamstring | Expected to be out until at least Aug 2 |
Betting Trends
- The Red Sox are 1-4 in their last five games against the spread.
- The Mariners are 4-1 in their last five games against the spread.
- The total has gone under in 4 of the Red Sox's last 5 games.
- The Mariners are 6-2 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.
- The Red Sox are 0-5 in their last five games played in July.
Recent Games
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Los Angeles | L 4-1 | Loss |
| @ Los Angeles | L 7-6 (F/11) | Loss |
| @ Los Angeles | L 9-6 | Loss |
| @ Colorado | L 9-8 (F/12) | Loss |
| @ Colorado | W 6-0 | Win |
Team Rankings
| Team | Hitting | Starting Pitching | Relief Pitching | Fielding |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 3rd | 13th | Tied-1st | Tied-1st |
| Seattle Mariners | 30th | 1st | Tied-9th | Tied-9th |
Significant Betting Stats
- The Red Sox have a 55-48 overall record this season.
- The Mariners have a 55-51 overall record this season.
- The Mariners are 6-1 in their last seven games against right-handed starters.
- The Red Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 games overall.
- The Mariners have hit the over in 4 of their last 6 games.
- The Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record.
- The Mariners are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.
- The Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 against the spread.
- The Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 against the spread.
- The total has gone under in 4 of the Red Sox's last 5 games.
Weather
Cloudy with a temperature of 81°F.
Prediction
In this matchup, the Seattle Mariners are favored to cover the spread. With Logan Gilbert on the mound, who has been outstanding this season with a 2.72 ERA and a WHIP of 0.86, the Mariners' pitching should neutralize the Red Sox's strong lineup. Meanwhile, the Red Sox's Nick Pivetta has struggled this season, and with the Mariners' power hitters like Cal Raleigh and Josh Rojas, they can capitalize on any mistakes made by the Red Sox's pitching staff. Thus, I predict the Mariners to cover the spread of -1.5 in this game.
Pick: Seattle Mariners -1.5
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