MLB Player Props Value Bets: Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers

MLB Player Props Value Bets: Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers

Photo Credit: © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Game Summary

The Miami Marlins are set to face the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday, July 28, 2024, at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The game is slated to start at 2:10 p.m. EDT. The Marlins, currently fifth in the NL East with a 39-66 record, are looking to extend their three-game road winning streak. Meanwhile, the Brewers, leading the NL Central with a 59-45 record, aim to bounce back from recent losses and maintain their top spot.

The Marlins have had the upper hand in their season series against the Brewers, leading 4-1. Milwaukee has a strong home record of 29-19 and has shown exceptional resilience, boasting a 25-6 record in games where they did not allow a home run. On the other hand, Miami's road record stands at 17-32, and they have struggled in games where they’ve allowed home runs, going 20-46 in such scenarios.

Recent performances indicate that both teams have had mixed results. Over their last 10 games, the Brewers have gone 5-5 with a .239 batting average and a 3.72 ERA, being outscored by one run. The Marlins, on the other hand, have been on a hot streak, going 7-3 with a .275 batting average and a 2.97 ERA, outscoring their opponents by 15 runs.

Player Prop Odds

William Contreras prop odds for today's game:

• Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+350), Under 0.5 (-575)
• Batter Hits: Over 1.5 (+190), Under 1.5 (-265)
• Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+140), Under 0.5 (-190)
• Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (+110), Under 0.5 (-150)
• Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (-160), Under 0.5 (+115)
• Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+110), Under 1.5 (-150)

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Player Analysis

William Contreras has been a key performer for the Brewers this season, leading the team in batting average with a .288 mark. He has also contributed significantly with 17 home runs and 68 RBIs, providing a consistent offensive threat. In the last 10 games, Contreras has maintained his form, adding crucial hits and runs for the Brewers. His ability to get on base and drive in runs makes him a valuable asset in this matchup against the Marlins.

Opposing Analysis

The Marlins' pitching staff has had its challenges this season, but they have shown improvement in recent games. In their last 10 games, they have posted a commendable 2.97 ERA. However, their overall season performance has seen them struggle, especially on the road. The Marlins' bullpen has been inconsistent, and this could be an area that Contreras and the Brewers look to exploit.

Pitching Probables

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Player	W-L	ERA	WHIP	IP	H	K	BB	HR
Kyle Tyler (MIA)	0-1	3.92	1.45	20.2	20	15	10	1
Tobias Myers (MIL)	6-4	3.14	1.15	77.1	67	68	22	11

Team Previews

Miami Marlins

The Marlins have struggled this season, currently sitting at 39-66. Their hitting has been a bright spot, ranking 7th in hits (890) and tied for 8th in runs (489). However, their pitching has been inconsistent, with a team ERA of 4.48, ranking 25th in the league. Their fielding has also been a concern, committing 75 errors, the most in the league.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have been strong contenders in the NL Central, with a 59-45 record. Their hitting has been average, ranking 17th in hits (831) and 29th in runs (374). However, their pitching has been their strong suit, with a team ERA of 3.72, ranking 6th in the league. Their fielding has been solid, committing 55 errors, tied for 14th in the league.

Team Injuries

Player	Position	Injury Status
Sandy Alcantara	SP	60-Day IL (elbow)
Jesus Luzardo	SP	60-Day IL (back)
Sixto Sanchez	SP	60-Day IL (shoulder)
Dane Myers	OF	10-Day IL (ankle)

Player	Position	Injury Status
Jackson Chourio	RF	Day-to-day (ear)
Christian Yelich	LF	10-Day IL (back)
Robert Gasser	SP	60-Day IL (flexor)

Recent Games

Date	Opponent	Score	W/L
Fri, Jul 19	vs New York	W6-4	W
Sat, Jul 20	vs New York	L1-0	L
Sun, Jul 21	vs New York	W4-2	W
Mon, Jul 22	vs New York	L6-4	L
Tue, Jul 23	vs Baltimore	W6-3	W

Date	Opponent	Score	W/L
Sat, Jul 20	@ Minnesota	W8-4 F/12	W
Sun, Jul 21	@ Minnesota	W8-7	W
Mon, Jul 22	@ Chicago	L3-1	L
Tue, Jul 23	@ Chicago	W1-0	W
Wed, Jul 24	@ Chicago	W3-2	W

Prediction

Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases for William Contreras (+110)

William Contreras has been a consistent performer for the Brewers, and with his recent form, he is likely to have a significant impact in this game. The Marlins' pitching staff has shown vulnerability, and Contreras, with his .288 batting average, is well-positioned to exceed 1.5 total bases in this matchup.

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