MLB Player Props Value Bets: Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers 7/27
- Mr Wager
- Jul 27, 2024, 9:28:05 AM
MLB Player Props Value Bets: Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers 7/27
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Game Summary
The Miami Marlins are set to face off against the Milwaukee Brewers in game 2 of their series on Saturday, July 27th at American Family Field in Milwaukee. The game is scheduled to start at 7:10 p.m. EDT. The Marlins, currently holding a 38-66 record and sitting fifth in the NL East, will be looking to build on their recent victory against the Brewers. On the other hand, the Brewers, with a strong 59-44 record and leading the NL Central, will aim to bounce back from their previous loss.
Milwaukee has been formidable at home with a 29-18 record, and they boast a 44-16 record when they manage to record eight or more hits in a game. Miami, however, has struggled on the road with a 16-32 record but has shown promise when out-hitting their opponents, holding a 28-12 record in such games.
This game marks the fifth meeting between these teams this season, with the Marlins leading the season series 3-1. Notable performers for the Brewers include William Contreras, who has 26 doubles, a triple, and 11 home runs, and Jackson Chourio, who is 13-for-42 with four doubles and a home run over the last 10 games. For the Marlins, Bryan De La Cruz leads with 18 home runs and a .417 slugging percentage, while Xavier Edwards has been 14-for-33 with six RBIs in the past 10 games.
The Brewers have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games with a .223 batting average and 3.13 ERA, outscoring opponents by two runs. The Marlins have performed slightly better, going 6-4 with a .279 batting average and 3.70 ERA, outscoring opponents by seven runs.
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Player Prop Odds
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- Joey Ortiz Batter Doubles 0.5: Over +475
- Joey Ortiz Batter Hits 0.5: Over -180
- Joey Ortiz Batter RBIs 0.5: Over +205, Under -285
- Joey Ortiz Batter Runs Scored 0.5: Over +145, Under -200
- Joey Ortiz Batter Singles 0.5: Over +100
- Joey Ortiz Batter Total Bases 0.5: Over -180, Under +135
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Player Analysis
Joey Ortiz has been a consistent performer for the Marlins this season. With a batting average of .286, Ortiz has proven his ability to get on base and contribute to the team's offense. He has also demonstrated power, with 16 home runs and 68 RBIs, making him a crucial part of the Marlins' lineup.
Ortiz’s recent form has been impressive, as he has been a key player in the Marlins' recent successes. With the ability to hit doubles, singles, and home runs, Ortiz is a versatile batter who can impact the game in multiple ways. His over odds for doubles and hits suggest that he is expected to continue his strong performance against the Brewers.
Opposing Analysis
The Brewers' pitching staff, led by Aaron Civale, will be tasked with containing Ortiz and the Marlins' offense. Civale, who has a 2-7 record with a 5.00 ERA, has struggled this season, allowing 107 hits and 21 home runs in 102.2 innings pitched. His high WHIP of 1.39 indicates that he has had difficulty keeping runners off base, which could be exploited by Ortiz’s batting prowess.
The Brewers' bullpen, which has been hit hard by injuries, will also play a crucial role in this game. With key relievers like Devin Williams and Rob Zastryzny on the IL, the Brewers' relief pitching depth will be tested. This could provide additional opportunities for Ortiz and the Marlins' hitters to capitalize on scoring chances late in the game.
Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Meyer (MIA) | 2-0 | 2.12 | 0.82 | 17.0 | 11 | 14 | 3 | 2 |
| Aaron Civale (MIL) | 2-7 | 5.00 | 1.39 | 102.2 | 107 | 102 | 36 | 21 |
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Team Previews
Miami Marlins
The Marlins have had a challenging season with a record of 38-66. Their hitting has been relatively strong, ranking 7th in hits with 890 and tied for 8th in runs with 489. They also boast a batting average of .254, which is 6th in the league. Their pitching has been a mixed bag, with an ERA of 3.72 (6th) and 35 saves (3rd). However, they have committed 55 errors, tied for 14th in the league.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have been dominant this season with a record of 59-44. Their hitting has been less impressive, ranking 17th in hits with 831 and 29th in runs with 374. Their batting average of .236 is 20th in the league. Their pitching has been a strength with an ERA of 4.48 (25th) and 20 saves (tied for 27th). They have committed the most errors in the league with 75.
Team Injuries
Miami Marlins
| Player | Position | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez | SP | Elbow | Out for the season |
| Josh Simpson | RP | Elbow | Expected to be out until at least Aug 8 |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Player | Position | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Zastryzny | RP | Elbow | Expected to be out until at least Aug 9 |
| Devin Williams | RP | Back | Expected to be out until at least Jul 29 |
Recent Games
Miami Marlins
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| New York | W 6-4 | W |
| New York | L 1-0 | L |
| New York | W 4-2 | W |
| New York | L 6-4 | L |
| Baltimore | W 6-3 | W |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | W 8-4 | W |
| Minnesota | W 8-7 | W |
| Chicago | L 3-1 | L |
| Chicago | W 1-0 | W |
| Chicago | W 3-2 | W |
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Prediction
Pick: Over 0.5 Hits for Joey Ortiz (-180)
Joey Ortiz has been a consistent contributor for the Marlins and given Aaron Civale's struggles on the mound, Ortiz is well-positioned to get at least one hit in this game. Ortiz’s recent form and Civale’s high WHIP make the over on 0.5 hits a strong value bet.
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