MLB Player Props Trends: Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays 7/28

MLB Player Props Trends: Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays 7/28

Photo Credit: © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Game Summary

The Cincinnati Reds are set to face the Tampa Bay Rays in a crucial matchup on Sunday, July 28, 2024, at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. The game, which starts at 11:35 AM EDT, marks the third and final meeting of the series, with both teams looking to secure a series victory.

The Reds come into this game with an overall record of 50-54, positioning them fourth in the NL Central. They have struggled on the road with a 25-26 record but have shown resilience in their lineup with a collective .392 slugging percentage, ranking 10th in the NL. In their last 10 games, the Reds have gone 5-5, hitting .216 with a 4.14 ERA, and have outscored opponents by four runs.

On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Rays hold a 53-52 record, placing them fourth in the AL East. Their home performance stands at 28-28. The Rays have a solid record when scoring at least five runs, boasting a 32-6 mark in such games. Over the past 10 games, Tampa Bay has gone 6-4, hitting .219 with a 2.76 ERA, outscoring opponents by 14 runs.

Player Prop Odds

Richie Palacios:

Batter Hits: 0.5 (Over -115, Under -120)
Batter RBIs: 0.5 (Over +300, Under -475)
Batter Runs Scored: 0.5 (Over +190, Under -265)
Batter Singles: 0.5 (Over +165, Under -230)
Batter Stolen Bases: 0.5 (Over +450, Under -800)
Batter Total Bases: 0.5 (Over -115, Under -120)

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Player Analysis: Richie Palacios

Richie Palacios has been a consistent contributor for the Cincinnati Reds, displaying versatility and solid performance at the plate. With a batting average of .266, Palacios has been effective in getting on base, creating scoring opportunities for his team. Over the past 10 games, he has showcased his ability to hit and score, contributing significantly to the Reds' offense.

Notably, Palacios has a knack for hitting singles, making the Over 0.5 Singles prop at +165 an attractive option. Given his recent form and the importance of this game, Palacios is likely to be a key player for the Reds, potentially exceeding his total bases prop as well.

Opposing Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays Pitching

The Tampa Bay Rays are starting Shawn Armstrong, who has had a challenging season with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. Armstrong's inconsistency has been a concern, allowing 53 hits in 44.2 innings pitched. His high WHIP indicates that he often struggles with control, giving batters like Palacios opportunities to take advantage.

Given Armstrong's struggles, especially against contact hitters, Richie Palacios stands a good chance to exceed his hitting props. The Rays' bullpen has been more reliable, but the Reds' lineup has the ability to capitalize early in the game.

Pitching Probables

Player	W-L	ERA	WHIP	IP	H	K	BB	HR
Hunter Greene (CIN)	7-4	3.14	1.09	117.1	80	133	48	10
Shawn Armstrong (TB)	2-2	5.64	1.61	44.2	53	49	19	5

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Team Previews

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have faced ups and downs this season, reflected in their 50-54 record. Their hitting, ranked 23rd in MLB with 813 hits, has been a weak point, alongside a .234 team batting average. The Reds' pitching staff has posted a 4.15 ERA, ranking 20th, with their bullpen securing 33 saves, the fourth most in MLB.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have experienced similar struggles with a 53-52 record. They rank 28th in hits with 775 and have a team batting average of .230. The Rays' pitching staff has been more effective, boasting a 3.83 ERA, ranking 12th in MLB. However, their bullpen’s 22 saves rank only 24th, indicating some late-game vulnerabilities.

Team Injuries

Cincinnati Reds

Player	Position	Injury	Injury Status
Peyton Burdick	RF	Undisclosed	Out until at least Jul 28
Luke Maile	C	Back	Out until at least Jul 28

Tampa Bay Rays

Player	Position	Injury	Injury Status
Richard Lovelady	RP	Forearm	Out until at least Jul 28

Recent Games

Cincinnati Reds

Date	Opponent	Score	W/L
Fri, Jul 19	@ Washington	5-8	L
Sat, Jul 20	@ Washington	4-5	L
Sun, Jul 21	@ Washington	2-5	L
Mon, Jul 22	@ Atlanta	4-1	W
Wed, Jul 24	@ Atlanta	9-4	W

Tampa Bay Rays

Date	Opponent	Score	W/L
Fri, Jul 19	@ New York	1-6	L
Sat, Jul 20	@ New York	9-1	W
Sun, Jul 21	@ New York	6-4	W
Mon, Jul 22	@ New York	1-9	L
Tue, Jul 23	@ Toronto	4-2	W

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Prediction

Given Richie Palacios' recent form and Shawn Armstrong's struggles on the mound for the Rays, the Over 0.5 Hits prop for Palacios at -115 is a solid pick. Palacios has been consistent in getting on base, and Armstrong's high WHIP and ERA indicate that the Reds' hitters will have opportunities to capitalize.

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