MLB Player Props Tonight: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets 7/28

Photo Credit: © Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Game Summary

The Atlanta Braves (55-48, 2nd in the NL East) will face off against the New York Mets (55-49, 3rd in the NL East) at Citi Field in Queens, New York, on Sunday, July 28, at 1:40 p.m. EDT. The Mets lead the current series 2-1. Both teams have identical records, making this a crucial game for positioning within the division.

The Mets have a 55-49 overall record, including a 28-27 record at home. They have excelled in games where they do not give up a home run, boasting a 25-10 record in such scenarios. Their offense is led by Pete Alonso, who has 24 doubles, 20 home runs, and 53 RBIs while hitting .241. Jose Iglesias is in hot form, going 14-for-36 with a double, a triple, and two home runs in the last 10 games.

The Braves, with a 55-48 overall record and a 25-27 road record, are known for their strong pitching, holding a collective ERA of 3.50, which ranks second in the National League. Austin Riley has been a key contributor with 22 doubles, two triples, 13 home runs, and 40 RBIs while hitting .251. Marcell Ozuna has also been in excellent form, going 13-for-35 with four home runs over the past 10 games.

In their last 10 games, the Mets have gone 6-4 with a .238 batting average and a 3.74 ERA, outscoring opponents by seven runs. The Braves, on the other hand, have struggled, going 3-7 with a .213 batting average and a 4.44 ERA, being outscored by 17 runs.

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Player Prop Odds

Here are the current player prop odds for Travis d'Arnaud:

• Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+390)
• Batter Hits: Over 0.5 (-170)
• Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+155)
• Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (+105)
• Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (+100)
• Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+170)

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Player Analysis

Travis d'Arnaud has been a consistent performer for the Braves this season. He’s hitting .245 with eight home runs and 29 RBIs in 82 games. d'Arnaud has shown a knack for getting on base, evidenced by his .312 on-base percentage. While he hasn't been a major power threat, his ability to contribute in clutch situations has been vital for the Braves.

In his last 10 games, d'Arnaud has hit .265, including a couple of multi-hit games. He has also driven in four runs during this stretch, showcasing his ability to contribute offensively. Against the Mets this season, d'Arnaud has hit .280 with two home runs and five RBIs in eight games, making him a potential difference-maker in this matchup.

Opposing Analysis

David Peterson will be on the mound for the Mets. He has been solid this season, with a 5-0 record, a 3.14 ERA, and a 1.48 WHIP in 48.2 innings pitched. However, Peterson has struggled with control at times, issuing 23 walks and giving up five home runs. His high WHIP suggests that opposing batters are able to get on base frequently, which could be an opportunity for d'Arnaud to capitalize.

Against the Braves, Peterson has a mixed record. In his last outing against them, he gave up three runs over five innings. The Braves’ lineup, which includes several potent right-handed hitters like d'Arnaud, could pose a challenge for Peterson. Given that d'Arnaud has historically performed well against left-handed pitchers, this matchup could favor him.

Pitching Probables

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Team Previews

Atlanta Braves

Hitting: The Braves have accumulated 884 hits (9th in MLB), 504 runs (5th in MLB), and are hitting .249 (11th in MLB). The key contributors include Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna, who have been consistent in their performances.

Starting Pitching: The Braves' starting pitchers have an ERA of 3.50, which is among the best in the National League. Reynaldo Lopez has been a standout performer with a 2.12 ERA and 100 strikeouts.

Relief Pitching: The bullpen has been reliable, posting a collective ERA of 4.15. Despite some struggles, they have managed to secure 28 saves (9th in MLB).

Fielding: The Braves have committed 70 errors, ranking 3rd in MLB. Their defensive efficiency has been one of their strengths, contributing to their overall performance.

New York Mets

Hitting: The Mets have 825 hits (18th in MLB), 428 runs (21st in MLB), and are hitting .240 (18th in MLB). Pete Alonso and Jose Iglesias have been key players in their offensive lineup.

Starting Pitching: The Mets' starting pitchers have a solid ERA of 3.52, with David Peterson being a reliable option despite his control issues.

Relief Pitching: The bullpen has been effective with a 3.74 ERA over the last 10 games, helping to secure close wins.

Fielding: The Mets have committed 45 errors, ranking 27th in MLB. Their defensive struggles have been a concern, and they will need to tighten up to compete effectively against the Braves.

Team Injuries

Atlanta Braves

New York Mets

Recent Games

Atlanta Braves

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New York Mets

Prediction

Considering Travis d'Arnaud's recent form and his historical performance against the Mets, the prop bet that stands out is for him to get over 0.5 hits. The odds for this are -170, indicating a high probability of success.

Additionally, given David Peterson's control issues and the Braves' offensive potential, d'Arnaud getting over 1.5 total bases at +170 also presents value. His ability to hit left-handed pitching and the current form of the Braves' offense make this a viable option.

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